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Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by Edward 96GTS, Oct 12, 2020.
and does anyone think the market will move significantly?
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IF any of them happen, Scottsdale, Paris/ Retromobile and Amelia Island are but three, four and six months away. All were huge pre covid19 but if lockdowns cause them to go online they will be washouts compared to the usual auctions in the flesh. Artcurial have already announced a Matra MS670 that won Le Mans in 1972 for their Retro auction. The second part of your question is ephemeral and no-one has a clue. The numbers that can and will view a car and discover whats on offer are always higher when cars are on public view and the general vibe and excitement that helps drive a few extra bids is missed when its all online. Prices have been lower when one compares the post Amelia 2020 results with those from before although the market was trending downwards anyway. Context is all though and I recall the post 1987 and post 2008 market changes with the market red hot from 1987 til 1990/91 as liquidity looked for a home while 2008/9 was weak AF before a 2010 recovery so that tells us nothing. Further the ever growing amount of centralised liquidity has meant that despite the worlds economic indicators hitting very rough seas markets like real estate and the stock market are still hitting record levels. That cannot continue, its simply a matter of time before central bankers put the brakes on, wage subsidies end and the middle market ($50 - 500k buyers) will be decimated. Ultra low interest rates should see the higher market ($1 - 10 million) hit but not killed and it might even prosper if either real estate or the stock market is hit (as it did between 1987 - 1990). The very very small ultra high market will either continue unabated or prosper as billionaires will almost certainly be okay.
Just my 2 cents.
3 day ban for @italiancars for posting P&R outside of that section
what is/means P&R?
Some "Political" or "Religious" (= P & R) commentary, for which there is a dedicated section in Silver Subscribed forums.
It's mainly an echo-chamber for small group of individuals here, but some can't help themselves and keep their views on those issues contained within that chamber/section.
thank you for explaining timo
You’re welcome Romano.
No. I do not think so.
I think those that are interested and well equipped right now to be in the vintage/collectible game are in it. I don't see many jumping in or out just because of whatever happens in our election (either way).
Drama could ensue in January if <as mentioned above> January auctions happen, and the 2/3rd waves of the virus are still rippling. But I see status quo on the horizon, with an abundance of market share shifting to BaT and other online platforms (or continuance of the big houses utilizing the phones and web).
Either way, I don't think any significant traction moves either up, or down.
Do we think BaT is really affecting the "big houses", or having a greater effect on the middle-market platforms? BaT still hasn't put up a GTO or a Royale.......
While I don't possess crystal ball(s) nor base my hobbies, including those involving (vintage) cars, to some market perceptions or speculations, I wouldn't be surprised if a year from today most "collectible"(?) car perceived values will be down 25-50%.
Just for cars and bikes at the weekend. Pretty good results:
RM Sotheby’s at Elkhart, Indiana, 23-24 October 2020 – provisional results
Total gross cars and motorbikes: $42,248,761
Number of cars not sold: 0
Number of cars withdrawn: 1
Total number of cars and motorbikes: 272
Number sold: 272
Percentage cars sold by number: 100%
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 95%
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 28%
Percentage of cars sold not met avge of estimates: 43%
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 42%
Average value of cars sold: £155,326
Average year of cars offered: 1967
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 99%
Scottsdale, AZ auction should be a nice indicator for 2021 being early in the year and after the hype from elections and holidays. Although may not reflect true market.
Is BaT directly effecting the likes of RM and Goodings business right now, I suspect only marginally as one or two of BaT's premium cars might have otherwise gone to them. However BaT has shown that it is possible to sell pretty expensive cars online and if that is a trend that continues even after the pandemic abates then RM/Gooding are going to have to work harder to justify the hefty commision charges, and prove it is really worth the vendor spending the transportation costs to bring cars to their auctions.
On side of Kissimmee Mecum auction held early Jan. next year, this Ferrari 340 America results will be interesting to follow.
Was the 5th place car at 1952 le Mans 0202A or 0206A?
0202 A finished 5th OA at Le Mans.
0206 A was not built as a chassis - an engine only.
0196 A and 0204 A were both Vignale Spiders.