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Tesla Model 3 - Make or Break ??

Discussion in 'General Automotive Discussion' started by F2003-GA, Feb 4, 2018.

  1. butcher

    butcher Formula 3

    Oct 19, 2008
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    Albert

    Not a model 3, but just another model S drag race against many other "fast" cars. We all know the Teslas have no competition from 0-30 or 0-60, but how about a 1/4 mile drag race with some of the fastest cars out there. Anyone that says they do not appreciate Tesla after watching this video, severely underestimates the fun and usability of this "everyday daily driver". Not too bad for a 7 seat family car I say... The hard working people in the Fremont, CA plant have really created an icon-this is why Tesla will flourish, including the model 3.
     
  2. Bas Jaski

    Bas Jaski Two Time F1 World Champ

    Mar 24, 2008
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    none as it doesn't make much sense to me...TSLA says their TM3 production is completely missing target and will take months to fix, and the stock goes up. Too many people buying what they think is a cheap entry. I'm not stupid with my money.
     
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  3. Korr

    Korr F1 World Champ
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    Honda is on their 2nd gen Clarity which is powered by hydrogen. The problem is the production and transport of hydrogen, not the cars. Honda says that the next gen Clarity will be no more expensive to build than the ICE Accord. The day fusion is nailed down is the day that mass use of ICE and batteries in cars dies.
     
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  4. Bas Jaski

    Bas Jaski Two Time F1 World Champ

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    Petro companies and big car manufacturers working together on hydrogen tech so hopefully they'll get it working as a viable option.
     
  5. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    This quote makes no sense and you contradict yourself. This whole thread you state your dislike for tesla. You mention how it burns money, has competition coming from every direction, you even post a seekingalpha article as a source. Tesla is at a $60b valuation right now, thats enormous, thats more than Ford who you say is profitable and just better. That is an arbitrage opportunity. You go long ford and short tesla to its rightful value somewhere much lower in your opinion. It just makes so sense how you say "you're not stupid with your money" but yet do not want to short Tesla at such an insane valuation. Its like paying $20 for $100 bills, i'd do that all day long if that offer was on the table and here you have it and yet you say you aren't short bc "you're not stupid with your money"

    Im scratching my head......
     
  6. Bas Jaski

    Bas Jaski Two Time F1 World Champ

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    Why would I short a company that goes up on bad news? Every time that snake opens his gob shares go up for no apparent reason. Easier making money on other stocks for me. I've no idea when Tesla will go down.

    Anyways, zero interest in what seems to be an obvious Tesla fanboy. Bye.
     
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  7. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    BC how much could it realistically "go up" if its already wildly overvalued and has competition coming from every direction? Its $60B, whats your risk profile on a trade like what you're saying? Like Im short Ferrari heavily at $130/share level from earnings last week and guess what its down $10 since, why? Because the company is worth well over $20B which is a joke when production is so limited. Sure Ferrari could grow as a brand but what is my risk? Ferrari probably isn't going to $260/share on me bc it would be the size of Ford. So When a trade has such limited upside you have to take the other side. Ferrari was $35 last year for a reason, at $130 its just piggish. I think Tesla could be a few thousand dollars a share, you feel its worthless, so at $340 it seems like your risk/reward is quite favorable for what you see.

    LOL I love how you say "zero interest in a tesla fanboy" and just leave.....damn I make one legitimate argument after another and you can't handle it and go home? It's amazing how dense some of you are, you make statements, and I ask questions and you just leave? If I thought a stock was worthless and it was worth $340 I would short it with everything I've got. I guess you are different/scared/whatever, got it.
     
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  8. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    i wont argue the stock direction - to each his own.

    but why is musk a snake? pls explain
     
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  9. rmolke85

    rmolke85 Formula Junior
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    Mar 11, 2013
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    IF you believe Tesla is a car company then your thesis will always be wrong on the stock.

    AND PLEASE PLEASE DONT POST SEEKING GARBAGE ARTICLES!! If your investing from those articles then well your hopeless. I get it on the face TSLA is overvalued by many metrics. But we do see time and again Wall St prices them that way for a reason, even if that reason takes 10 years to come to fruition.
     
  10. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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  11. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    Again the market disagrees with your assumption and has bid the stock up to a $50B+ valuation, you and Bas will be very rich if you're right and buy puts along with shorting the stock. I mean really guys with such a no brainer like you guys claim this is, fortunes are awaiting you. I don't get why you guys are so sure about something but unwilling to short the company. Im not scared to short RACE which is Ferrari stock, Im short and holding it from $130. Sounds to me like you guys are all talk, too scared to back up your thoughts with real money.
     
  12. Korr

    Korr F1 World Champ
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    He's no snake. Snakes sell snake oil. He has cars on the road and rockets in space.

    Well, cars in space, too!
     
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  13. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    that question was aimed at bas since he called musk that.
    but i think you are misreading the whole equation if you are looking at it like a car company stock.
    it obviously doesnt work that way, nor will it become one.
     
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  14. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    I just don't see any amazing proprietary technology that he's gonna overwhelm the competition with.If he had both Toyota and Merc would've stayed shareholders
    I'm not a hater just being realistic. I do like his solar roof tiles and plan on buying them when I build a new home in 2-3 years time.
    I believe he's deliberately integrated a web of different businesses So his business model would be hard to compare - Smart move
    But none of the enterprises within Tesla have a leg up on competitors that I can see. Lots of people have lost billions betting against
    Elon. I would never put money against him - But he has so so much on his plate and how in the world will he come through
     
  15. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    arguably he already makes the best mass produced electric vehicles, so what more does he need to do? he needs to deliver them on time and on budget. thats it.
    so when you say he doesnt have a leg up on the competition.....tell me who is competittion is and what advantages they have over tesla???

    you wont be able to buy his solar roof tiles in florida - i already tried. it has to do with florida laws about dumping the excess electricity back into the grid making you a power supplier with all the attendant regs around that.
    he combined solar city into tesla so that he would be able to control it and integrate it with the cars. that it muddies the view of the companies is a an obvious side benefit for the moment.

    he has a lot on his plate, but that is how he is wired, thats how he thrives. how does he maintain the pace? so far by traveling a lot, AND hiring some extremely competent people who are willing to work as hard as he does, and he compensates them accordingly - free market capitalism at work !

    read the biography of musk, and you may understand him better.
     
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  16. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
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    I know Florida is pretty much against home solar, but could you elaborate on this? I'm not entirely familiar with it. If you don't plan on hooking up to the grid and selling back, it doesn't matter and you can buy and install whatever you want, right? I'm looking at off-grid options with deep cycle battery storage for overnight needs...
     
  17. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    They dont have a multi year lead in building electric cars and an electric charging network? They have an incredible lead that looks it may be insurmountable
     
  18. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    I did speak to someone from Solar city a while back and they acted Like I could.Plus if you buy enough Power wall
    capacity no need to tieback to the utilities. Plus there is No real competition from the model S that's gonna be coming
    from the Mission E. If the press choose a Tesla product as the winner of the two then I'll happily concede

    https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2016/12/01/the-largest-solar-installer-in-the-us-will-open-a-facility-in-clermont

    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/florida-voters-defeat-utility-backed-solar-amendment#gs.HcyTtXg
     
  19. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    you can put solar panels on your house in florida.
    and you may even be able to hook that up to some facsimile of the 'power wall'
    but you cannot dump it into the grid without meeting all the power supplier regs - which is a pain.

    so given that, solar city does not offer their product for sale in FL.
    if you were to buy it in another state and cart it to FL, then they would not service it or help with installation.

    so we passed. the non- solar city stuff is pretty ugly, doesnt work as well, doesnt integrate as easily with your house etc.
    we may end up putting some panels in on a hidden part of the roof, and just having it run essentials in case of power outages, but undecided as of yet.

    keep in mind that the pay out/breakeven of solar panels in the best case scenario is still about 12 years. and the best scenario means you are building from new or have to replace your entire roof for some reason. if this is not the case, then the payout is decades.
     
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  20. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    IF thats the case, then i will call them back.
    my post above recounts the last time i spoke with them.
     
  21. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    re the EV car world, tesla simply has no competition at the moment.

    there are some low volume cars that might be more interesting to certain demographics, but look at sales of the bolt etc, vs tesla.

    the only thing the other mass production EV makers can compete on is price - the way caddy sold their EV by just blowing it out at massive discounts.
     
  22. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    I'm with you on No competition right now - Like I said earlier First Real competitor will be Mission E when it
    Launches in 2019 I believe the starting price will be 75K. Once they are several electric Audi's an Merc's
    to compare with Then we'll get a real picture of who's king of the hill BTW rumor is the 2019 Jag XJ will be
    all electric as well. Anyways gotta go spend family time.Good evening Guys
     
  23. Face76

    Face76 F1 Veteran
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    What wasn't shown on the launch this week was that the roadster has a trunk-fitted backhoe to explore Mars for more battery materials.

    Musk is a tech evangelist with many followers, good and bad. The space launch shows what can still be done when money is not an issue.
     
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  24. xs10shl

    xs10shl Formula 3

    Dec 17, 2003
    2,017
    San Francisco
    IMHO what has saved Tesla in the marketplace is the inability of other manufacturers to use the time Tesla's production misstep is giving them to pay catch-up. I admit that I've wondered for years why Tesla doesn't get into more shareholder trouble with its forward looking projections and flashy diversions, followed by huge quarterly misses. To date, it hasn't seemed to invoke shareholder angst to the level it would at similar companies.

    As far as the automotive market goes: a new "on-demand autonomous" rental model looms on the horizon, and I'm personally not sure whether anyone in this consumer group is going to care about buying or servicing a car at a franchise dealer vs the Tesla approach. For example, in San Francisco, its currently less expensive to buy Uber Passes to go everywhere you need to within the city, vs the total cost of actual vehicle ownership. These future ride-sharing consumers are likely to care less about the means of propulsion as opposed to wait times, cleanliness, and price.

    Tesla does appear to have more pivots lined up than most other automakers- power being one of them- which could even potentially allow them to exit or sell off the personal vehicle retail sales business altogether and go in new, more profitable directions. Granted, all of these pivots are themselves untested emerging markets, but I give them credit for the foresight.
     

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