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Tesla Model 3 - Make or Break ??

Discussion in 'General Automotive Discussion' started by F2003-GA, Feb 4, 2018.

  1. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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  2. Bas Jaski

    Bas Jaski Two Time F1 World Champ

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    I've said it before and I'll say it again...Orange jumpsuit for Musky by end of the decade.
     
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  3. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    Are we really shocked a analyst paid for by big auto would say such a thing? Why are model 3's being shipped to germany for the germans to tear apart if its all junk?

    Revenues are up drastically every year, for a growth company thats all that matters. Tesla isn't really losing money, its reinvesting in infrastructure. Tesla by the end will own factories + service + dealerships + charging stations vs what big auto currently has where they own factories and sell to franchised dealers who profit on the service and sale of cars + gas stations take all the refueling profits. Tesla has 8500+ chargers right now globally. Their demand is off the charts for a company who spends $0 marketing itself. Cars are on long wait lists and not being sold for $10k off msrp like big auto with their inefficient model. Musk gets alot of hate, sure he misses deadlines, but thats bc he sets super ambitious targets. The company is growing leaps and bounds and while Ford stock keeps tanking, Tesla keeps hanging out at a near $60b valuation and its monthly chart setup is in a breakout targeting $400+ shortly. Tesla will be the story of our lifetimes imo, big auto cant compete with them, its too late, tesla is too far ahead and big auto cant just change their business model right here.
     
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  4. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    What flavor of Kool-Aid do you prefer o_O
     
  5. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    ok well what is your rebuttal to the things I said? Why hasn't big auto actually made a move into EV in size yet and just let tesla take all this market share and hype without doing anything of note? How can big auto profitably enter EV market with their current structure of selling to dealers who profit and making money back on service when EV's done require much service? Where will big auto get all these batteries from? Where is the charging networks under construction from big auto? Lots of questions Id love to hear your rebuttal to. Meanwhile, yes Tesla is slower, but they're ramping and they have a big big lead.
     
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  6. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Here's your rebuttal The Porsche Mission E is gonna slaughter the model S
     
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  7. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    LOL ok thats awesome lets see the price tag on that car + lets see how many they make. Sure all these companies talk the talk but if the model E is $200k does that really drive into the mass market? The tesla roadster will kill the model E too, wow big deal. For someone who is an investor as your profile claims I expected a better rebuttal. Im a trader for a living, Tesla revenues are soaring, tesla has battery production capability at their gigafactory that nobody else has and to mass produce 200-300k cars this year like they will, porsche could not anytime soon. So again tesla is going one way while big auto is still too heavily invested in the ICE engine to do anything more than talk. The porsche model E will be awesome, the tesla model S came out in 2012 lol when is the model E coming? How many will they even produce? Tesla sold I think 128,000 cars last between S and X thats pretty damn impressive. Im sure porsche will sell a few hundred model E cars and guys like you will get a hard on over the matter, wake me up when big auto launches an EV like tesla and sells 10k/month. Chevy launched the bolt and oddly enough it seems like nobody even wants one
     
  8. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Mission E to start at 75k Lower price than a Panamera https://electrek.co/2017/12/28/porsche-mission-e-price-performance/
     
  9. F355 Fan 82

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    That's what they've said.....tesla also said the model 3 was gonna be $35k its closer to $60k.....lets see what the mission E really comes out at. Sure porsche can sell it at $75k for a loss but no way is it profitable for them down there, its just a compliance car, they have no battery production capability so no way they can get cheap batteries
     
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  10. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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  11. Bas Jaski

    Bas Jaski Two Time F1 World Champ

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    Lets see them build that Roadster first. It's nothing more than a concept with the sole purpose to fund the TM3 build....he'll announce an even faster thing and take deposits on that to build the roadster (if the company still exists) until he gets caught and wears that flash orange jump suit he'll soon have.
     
  12. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    Musk could turn a profit right now if he wasn't hell bent on growth. It takes alot of money to build out dealerships + service centers + charging stations + gigafactories. Things that took big auto 100+ years to build tesla is doing in around a decade, pretty impressive, so much so that investors have bid up the stock to almost a $60b valuation, bigger than ford even. Some people are forward thinking, some are backwards thinking, lets just watch the story unfold. The stock has been amazing to me, i got in around $55ish when motor trend called the model S the best car they've ever driven in 2012/13
     
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  13. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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  14. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    ok they're down to a panasonic battery, thats what tesla uses, made in the gigafactory for tesla. Where is Porsche's gigafactory? So porsche will probably be buying batteries made in tesla's gigafactory for their car. Again, battery costs are around $125 kw/hr for tesla porsche's costs will be higher bc they will be buying less + I doubt they've hedged prices on cobalt and lithium like tesla to this point, those prices soared, so batteries will definitely cost porsche a ton. Again what im saying is big auto can make 1 EV per automaker, ok cool, lets see them mass produce. Then even if you buy a mission E, lets say you live in Miami like me, you can't drive it to LA and fill up at porsche charging stations along the way, you can in a tesla.....tesla has a monster monster leg up.
     
  15. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Anyways IMO Tesla will start to fail in 36-48 months time - Let's watch this space in the mean time :)
     
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  16. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    Thats fine that you believe that, I was just telling you what I know to be true about Tesla. They're changing the wheel, that takes time and money. The traditional model of big auto building cars and selling to a franchised dealer who makes all the profit on sales.....tesla is wrecking that. Big auto is in a tight spot, billions invested in infrastructure for ICE engines and a model, which includes franchised dealers, which just doesn't work in EV's. The reason being, electric cars dont require much service, a tesla has sub 20 moving parts I believe, so how will your local dealer profit off his service department + sales when the parent company has to make all the money on sales to compete with tesla? Simply put they cant, thats wht big auto to this point has been avoiding the electric car hoping tesla goes away and meanwhile while spending $0 marketing itself tesla is gaining more and more popularity. They need money to survive and its fans give them money by keeping share price high for secondaries + paying $250k deposits for a roadster which gave tesla a free $250m cash infusion. Gonna be hard to kill tesla as sales keeep growing and people keep giving them money.....
     
  17. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Nobody needs to kill Tesla They'll do self Immolation
     
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  18. F355 Fan 82

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    seems fairly unlikely with how much popularity/demand they're seeing while not investing $1 in marketing....
     
  19. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Tesla sold 100k units in 2017 - Toyota sold 10 Million cars That's a hundred times more than Tesla
     
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  20. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    It took Toyota 100 years to get to that volume, tesla has been around 10 years. Tesla is more impressive in those number bc the 128k they sold prob had $100k average price, what was toyotas price? The model 3 is teslas first foray to cheaper cars and the waitlist is 500-600k deep as is.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat.com mobile app
     
  21. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Name me the number 2 guy at Tesla that would step in in case anything would happen to Elon :confused:
    The company has no succession plan o_O
     
  22. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran
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    #22 F355 Fan 82, Feb 5, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2018
    o you mean like JB straubel who is there on every earnings call? Elon doesn't design the cars, thats Franz job and he's one of the hottest designers in the car game. I dont know why you keep throwing out statements when its very apparent you really dont know the slightest thing about tesla. Again like I said you have made no mention of where big auto is going to magically pull batteries out of their ass. This stuff is not easy to produce, big auto is all talk, if they could mass produce EV's they would have begun, everyday tesla is selling more and more cars, building out their charging network and chugging along with shares at near all time highs. Im not sure why you think you're so pious in all your tesla hate, are the cars green? I dont believe they are, Im a fan bc the internal combustion engine is an outdated design and cars are too complex. My 575 has been in the shop for a month now while they replace 6th gear, a month! A tesla is faster, more simple, and just an all around better car than cars that exist today. Like all technology battery prices will be driven down over time, today we're at $125 a kw/hr down from $300 kw/hr when tesla launched its roadster in 2007. When we go below $100 kw/hr which is very close, then its going to be really tough to compete with a company that can mass produce EV's.

    You can't really tell me you believe the current model of GM making 6m cars and selling them to franchised dealers to let them sit and rot while finally selling them for $8k off MSRP is more efficent than what tesla has, can you? I mean if you can LOL but tesla doesn't haggle on the price, there are no games when you buy, no inefficient sales channels, no nonsense. Tesla is having issues producing cars bc they're new to the game, at the rate they're growing they will be fine in time, they dont have 100 years of infrastructure rollout behind them like all the big auto companies.

    Again, Im a trader, the market is a forward thinking instrument and for a short while tesla was the biggest car co in america, the market knows if tesla can continue its roll out, it could be the biggest company in the world. Below is tesla deliveries since the model S came out, thats solid annualized growth, pretty amazing and hence why the stock is where it is.....meanwhile big auto is all in decline. You're missing the big picture than tesla has a charging network alone that is growing daily that could be equivalent to a large gas station company one day. Big auto even if they had EV's you cant go cross country on a GM or Ford or Volvo charging network like Tesla has. That is a huge step above the competition.
     

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  23. Kaivball

    Kaivball Three Time F1 World Champ
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    US new car sales in 2017: ~17,000,000

    Or something close to that.

    Kai
     
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  24. F355 Fan 82

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    Correct, they haven't penetrated anything globally, if Tesla can scale to 5M+ cars, which at the rate they're growing at isn't that insane, they could be the biggest co in the world. They very well could go bankrupt before, their financials are terrible, but as long as the share price remains high, they're able to minimize dilution via these offerings, then they will be fine. They will do another offering here soon too. The model 3 should add another 100-200k sales this year ontop of S/X. Then a model Y soon, then an 18 wheeler, then a refresh of S/X all while expanding the charging network and model 3 production. The model 3 right now they're selling just fully loaded models, ferrari does that too for early adopters. Once they start pumping out the $35k base version in mass, that car is right there with camry's, altima's, etc in the normal car segment and prob even cheaper to own over a decade with no gas or oil changes or other maintenance required on engines.

    Again I love the internal combustion engine, my Ferrari 575 is a work of art, its not always about pure speed like a tesla in a straight line. Im just saying how damn complex are these cars, if you own a Ferrari like me you'd understand the labor is insane to work on them and everytime something goes wrong your car is gone a week minimum and in my case now a month, 1 month, that is not efficient at all. Electric cars are so simple, a spindle and a magnet, no transmission, they are the future.
     
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  25. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    JB Straubel - What's his claim to fame ? and will the house of cards hold up under his command I think NOT
     

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