Tendências de mercado - Ferrari clássicos

Discussion in 'Portugal' started by AlfistaPortoghese, Dec 11, 2018.

  1. AlfistaPortoghese

    AlfistaPortoghese Moderator
    Lifetime Rossa

    Mar 18, 2014
    Europe, but not by much.
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    Interessante leitura a respeito das tendências internacionais de cotação de automóveis coleccionáveis clássicos:

    Is the classic car market stalling? Prices up just 1% this year and a quarter of collectible cars fall in value, with Aston Martins and 80s Ferraris hit
    • Classic cars have been the top-ranking alternative investment assets in recent years with values soaring in the last decade
    • A report reviewing classic car prices says the market has slowed in 2018
    • Of 50 collectible models that are popular in the UK, just half went up in value
    • A quarter depreciated during the 8 months - the rest were unchanged

    The classic car market has boomed in recent years, but there are now signs that it could be slowing.

    That's according to a new report, which has tracked the sale values of popular collectible models in the UK and found that overall sold and insurance valuation prices grew by just one per cent between April and December - the slowest rise in almost four years.

    Of the cars analysed, just 52 per cent had increased in value in the last eight months and a quarter had depreciated, with classic Aston Martins, Jaguar E-Types and 1980s Ferraris named among the strugglers.

    Market slowdown: A new report says the classic car market is now showing signs of minimal growth after a decade of soaring values

    A slowdown in the collectible vehicle market has been predicted for some time.

    Classic cars have been deemed the top-ranking alternative investment assets in recent years, with values soaring for even the modern classic examples from the '80s and '90s.

    A report released last year by insurance specialist AXA Art said that prices have grown 192 per cent in a decade, putting it way ahead of other asset classes including fine art and wine.

    Transaction data reviewed showed that the sector peaked in 2015, and there was evidence to show that year-on-year growth had slowed by the end of 2017.

    This latest report from Hagerty Price Guide - a classic car index managed by the classic car insurer and valuations experts - suggests growth in the sector has almost ground to a halt during the last few months.

    Since April, values of 50 popular collectible models it logged had increased by just 1.07 per cent - the slowest periodic rise since the insurance firm started tracking prices in 2012.

    This was calculated after reviewing over 40,000 individual values of more than 2,000 classic cars based on auction sales, insured values and private sale prices.

    The report says the most significant declines in value were for models that were relatively cheap for a long time, then rose rapidly and have since started to shrink again.

    This includes cars like the Aston Martin Lagonda Series I, which posted an average value decline of 11.9 per cent.

    The average values of Aston Martin Langonda Series I models have fallen by almost 12%, according to Hagerty

    Some Ferraris are bearing the brunt of the decline. The Testarossa (left) shed 7.6% of its value since April and the 308 GTB (right) was down by 10.7%

    It was also a difficult period for a couple of iconic Ferraris, with the 308 GTB Standard down 10.7 per cent and the Testarossa shedding 7.6 per cent of its value between April and December.

    Hagerty also found that some cars that had risen steeply over the last few years have now started to hit a ceiling, with values for models including the MKIII Ford Capri, Mini Cooper 1275S and Porsche 911 (930) Turbo all tapering off.

    Of the cars that did increase in value - which were 26 of the 50 models reviewed - the most significant riser was an unlikely classic car choice.

    The MkI Mazda MX-5 saw the biggest value increase, with 1.6i examples from 1989 to 1994 up by 8.5 per cent over the last eight months - more than any other collectible motor.

    Ford Capris have been enjoying a period of appreciation, along with other Fast Ford models from later generations. However, Hagerty said values appear to have hit a ceiling

    Surprisingly, the model that was showing the most fruitful increase in value was the MkI Mazda MX-5, which are now becoming more collectible

    The classic cars that rose, fell and flatlined
    Mazda MX-5 1.6i: +8.5%

    Lancia Fulvia Sport Zagato 1.6: +5%

    Fiat 500 F: +4.3%

    Aston Martin Lagonda Series I: -11.9%

    Ferrari 308 GTB Standard: -10.7%

    Willys MB Jeep: -8.6%

    Ford Capri Mk III 2.8i: no change

    Mini Cooper 1275S: no change

    Porsche 911 (930) Turbo: no change

    Source: Hagerty Price Guide (value changes from April 2018-December 2018)

    Angus Forsyth, MD of Hagerty International, said it was clear the market is 'in a state of flux' but said prices were 'correcting rather than anything else' after years of rising values.

    The biggest percentage drops are in those cars that rose rapidly in value over the last few years: early Jaguar E-Types, Aston Martins and 1980s Ferraris
    'The biggest percentage drops are in those cars that rose rapidly in value over the last few years: early Jaguar E-Types, classic Aston Martins and 1980s Ferraris have all been particularly affected,' he said.

    'For example, the Aston Martin DB4 Saloon has dropped by around 3.5 per cent (average value now £385,500 from £399,500).

    'We’ve also seen some of these models struggle at auction. For example, we’ve noted six no-sales at auction since August of early ‘flat floor’ Jaguar E-Types - including two desirable ‘outside bonnet lock’ cars.'

    Even the iconic Jaguar E-Type has endured a difficult 2018, with some failing to sell at auction

    The classic vehicle insurer said it had noted a disparity between sold values and advertised prices, especially for those cars that had taken a downturn.

    For example, the average price of a Ferrari Testarossa sold at a major European auction this year was £87,800 and the most expensive was sold for £111,886 including commission by Artcurial.

    In the US, these figures are similar with an average of £85,300 and a top value of £120,710 (RM Sotheby’s).

    We believe that some sellers’ expectations are still higher than the market will bear
    However, when we looked at advertised values the average is £116,000 and the top priced private car for sale is priced at £199,950.

    'We believe that some sellers’ expectations are still higher than the market will bear, and we caution against using advertised values as a guide to valuing your car for insurance purposes or otherwise,' Mr Forsyth added.

    'That said, this autumn, we have seen many of the UK auction houses setting realistic guide prices which their customers seem to be accepting; this is good for the market in the long run.'


    (Enfase editado por mim).

    A correcção de valor/desvalorização apontada no artigo parece, efectivamente, duas causas principais:
    1) O aumento exponencial de valor de certos modelos (sendo que é impossível um activo valorizar até ao infinito), indexado sobretudo a:
    2) Baixos e incertos retornos no mercado de capitais.

    Vejamos a evolução da situação além fronteiras, bem como se em Portugal existirá um mesmo acompanhamento das supras identificadas tendências, ou se a fiscalidade lusa, extremamente peculiar, continuará a inflaccionar o mercado, pela dificuldade de que se reveste importar uma viatura.

    Aguardo pela V. prezada e enriquecedora leitura da situação.

    Um abraço a todos,

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  3. MDEL

    MDEL F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed Silver Subscribed

    Feb 24, 2016
    Southern Europe
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    Nuno parabéns trata-se de um excelente artigo e um dos mais interessantes que li nos últimos tempos acerca da evolução do mercado dos clássicos. À medida que ia lendo ia pensando para mim próprio se no artigo haveria alguma referência ao Jaguar tipo E. Parecia que adivinhava pois consta lá a informação de que desde Agosto passado houve seis unidades que tinham sido colocadas em leilão e que não conseguiram ser vendidas o que é algo que nunca teria acontecido nos últimos anos pois a procura ultrapassava sempre a oferta. Os tipo E das séries 1 e 2 mesmo sem estarem em bom estado já atingiam preços ridiculamente elevados e os da série 3, cuja estética e interesse é manifestamente muito inferior à dos seus antecessores, devido à escassez que existia já estavam a atingir valores de venda completamente despropositados.

    Se esta tendência de descida de preços continuar quem sabe se para alguns não será o momento indicado para adquirirem o seu Ferrari clássico.

    Um abraço


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