Speciale Collectability

Only if you get the Aperta. Otherwise it's going down as soon as the 488 special version is out.

 

Yes, I own a speciale and it is just an amazing car. Is it the fastest car out there? No. But look at it from a scenario where I could take my speciale to Hennessy, turbo charge it and have a much faster car, but what would I have? Just another fast turbo charged car which there are many. And cars like the 488, 675lt will just keep pushing up the HP and play the bragging rights game. In three years the 488 version of the speciale will come out but again it will be a HP increase, design tweek and will be FAST. So will many other cars out there. NA cars have very special feel that you can never duplicate. The 458 speciale to me is the BEST NA V8 car ever made and it is a Ferrari. I would love a speciale in a V12 though.

 

I think the word "invest" shouldn't really be used with cars. Unless you have a super limited production car it's unlikely it will go up in value (Think laferrari or TDF or Aperta)

Even if other models do eventually go up in value it's unlikely a very good "investment". If you wisely invested your $350,000 over ten years the value would be much higher than a $350,000 speciale in 2026? Some would say that they get to have fun driving the investment but I would argue if you buy any car as an investment it's unlikely you'll drive it much for concerns of mileage or even worse damage depreciation. One rear end accident and your "investment" is done.

Thus I would buy one if you want to drive it and pound it around a track with the understanding you are spending (and losing) money. Much more fun.......

 

Why would a Speciale depreciate and not the Aperta? Scuderias are still holding on strong.

 

Well here in the uk it seems speciales have been a good investment, typically a £230ish car new and now going In the used market anywhere between £350-400k... So a £150k return on a £230k in say 18 months indeed is a pretty good investment
Here in the uk the speciales never went down in value at all at any point on the second hand market, just up .., we shall see where the ceiling is
I reckon as last of the normally aspirated ( and of course very highly acclaimed car ) they will hold value very well , If I could buy one at £250k I would be very confidant it was an excellent investment , not so sure if I had to pay £400k though as not sure how high they will go ... Struggle to see the £500k speciale.... But it's possible in a few years


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I wouldn't buy as a investment.

I own a Speciale and a Speciale Aperta. The Speciale is a fantastic car and at the moment, they are both showing a profit. But we have very short memories. Before 2012 the market was lukewarm at best. In 2011 my brand new 599 GTO went backwards 10% from its new car price. Then 2013 the market went nuts.

We are now facing very fragile times, China has a massive debt problem which will go pop and current economic indicators are far from robust.

Buy a Speciale for the incredible car it is. Forget any investment equation, especially if you are thinking of financing it. That's a definite no.

 

Well, it depends on how old you are and how optimistic you feel about the appreciation! It took 308s, what? 30-40+ years to rise in price? Speciales may take less time as they're last of breed, there are fewer of them, and we are on the cusp of a hybrid/electric paradigm shift, so it could happen sooner. But more likely, they will just depreciate less than other 458s in the immediate future, so how long do you think you can hold onto the car? And driving it will negatively impact the value. So you spend all that money, park the car for 20+ years and hope it appreciates?

 

Numbers!
The Speciale will be strong as it is a great car, but not as strong as the Aperta (or Scud or CS) which is purely down to the number produced - 3200+ Speciales (which is a lot) compared to 650+ Apertas (also a lot).


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Everything he says minus TDF and Aperta.

 

499 Apertas

 

Only on the brochure and the dash I'm afraid. I doubt that a few hundred more than the intended 499 will affect prices and of course Ferrari will never publish a figure.

 

I'd be interested to know where you get your numbers from and what the actual number of RHD cars is. Australia got 14, NZ got 0, Singapore I think was 5, Thailand was 2 and I have no clue about Malaysia, Hk, Japan, India (RHD?) and the UK.

 

UK got 65 confirmed cars (2 LHD).
Expected number originally was under 40. (UK is 9% approx. Ferrari production)

 

Will continue to appreciate... Last NA non spider. As important, a wonderful drivers car that can be enjoyed in many different driving environments.

 

Short term - less than 3 years NO
Long term - more than 10 years - absolutely.

The day will come in the future (probably 20 years or so) that the Speciale will be a million dollar plus car. The ranks will be thinned by the accidents in them at the track, much as happened to the Ford GT.

 

Your long term prediction on the Speciale might be correct if one caveat is met. You don't drive it...meaning very low mileage. What fun is that ?

 

Until it's not...

 

Not in the short term. If you buy one now, it will be cheaper later. At some point it may begin to appreciate again, but look how long it took for 360CS to appreciate, and look how the 430S is still under MSRP by quite a bit. Speciale may or may not be the last NA V8 (I think it won't be,) but they will have also made quite a lot of them.

360CS -- appreciated
430S -- depreciated
16M -- appreciated
Speciale -- around MSRP
Aptera -- appreciated

I personally do not think the Speciale will be a good investment at this point, and may never be a great investment.

Also keep in mind that you probably can't use it much. If you put a lot of miles on it, the value will be drastically different in the short to medium term. You'd have to hold the car 20+ years for the mileage to stop mattering.

 

Just curious, how do you figure the speciale will not be the last NA mid engine V8 Ferrari?

 

Looking to its predecessors, the Speciale will almost certainly depreciate before it appreciates.

Relatively speaking this is what I've observed, there are obviously outliers to each generation, but for the most part it's been accurate for Rosso specimens with the widely accepted low mileage threshold of <5k miles.

'04 CS curve
Went as low as $130k in 2010. Gradual reverse of that trend, slowly back up to the $170s in 2012, before breaking the $200k threshold in 2014, bringing it to its now 2016 $220+k mark

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'09 Scuderia
Went as low as $180k in 2012. Gradual reverse of that trend back up to the $190s in 2014, before breaking the $200k threshold just last year in 2015, bringing it to its now 2016 $220+k mark

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CS production is less than Scuderia production and so it makes sense that the prices have now overlapped. CS & Scuderia prices both seem to still be on a gradual upward trend.

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Speciale production is greater than either CS or Scuderia (we can debate how much greater in another thread), so I see Speciale prices having way more to fall in the immediate term like its predecessors, before it bounces back up again. So based on history, pretty certain it won't be over msrp again anytime soon.

 

@noone1: NA is not going to return. Turbo is much cheaper and more efficient at low powersettings.

 

I've been following the market the past couple of years in search of a Speciale to complete the trio. The asking prices have increased from +$30k over to +$70k over. I've seen inventory increased the past few weeks, probably related to the delivery of 488. Although it is the last NA v8, they've made quite a few of them. I think they will drop quite a bit below MSRP, like the CS and Scuderia did.

 

I respectfully disagree, low mileage 09 striped scud in white, red 0r yellow are nearing if not exceeding $300k sale price. I don't see this changing and therefore I don't see Speciale getting close to these numbers. I feel the world market has changed for low production modern day Ferraris and not fair to comapre to where things were 10+ yrs ago.

 

Every single thread you have posted is how the Speciale is going down in value. I suspect you are trying to buy one and its out of your reach financially.