488 Pistas selling for less than MSRP...

I love all the doomsayers.

Probably the same people that thought Hillary had 97% chance of winning the election.

I wonder if there is a correlation between political affiliation and sentiment, on this forum, as it pertains to economic outlook for the USA.

Smh




Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat.com mobile app

 

Agreed - in my geo there are many people who bought in cheap credit and now have no jobs. Very sad and there will be carnage.

 

Regarding the office space, I bet when things calm down people cant wait to get out of the house and go somewhere else. Productivity is at an all time low right now, I see all of these people walking around my neighborhood who are supposedly working from home.

 

"When things calm down"...there will be a new normal and no one knows what that is.

The people I'm referring to WFH are those who can. There are obviously professions you cannot...there are many (high tech) that preferred to have employees in office, but now those employees have a taste of working from home and like it. I think without question you will see more people WFH in the future.

Right now the government is forcing people to stay home. Can't travel, nothing is open and of course they are going crazy.

Any who, just an observation as no one knows how life will change--the one thing I can assure you--it will.

 

I get it but I am not letting anyone work from home after this and I know others feel the same. The new normal will be go to work and wash your darn hands, dont get up in peoples faces, cover your mouth, wear a mask if your a feeling sick.

 

We’ll never know. At least not here. We’re not in P&R.

But if we’re to go down the path of analyzing the current and short term economic environment and its correlation to the Pista selling below MSRP, I do have a question:

How worried are Pista owners, who bought and spec’d exactly the car they wanted less than two years ago, about prices of their car in general? How worried are they about their new car that, surprise surprise, is depreciating like everything else right now and dove bellow MSRP?

I’m guessing zero, but not being a Pista owner and therefore not having any skin in the game, I’ll be more than happy to hear from owners themselves.

Kind regards,

Nuno.

 

Depends, some of us bought to use them and others are under the idea that they would appreciate over time. I believe the values will fluctuate over time like they have for all special cars.

I agree but we are digressing. I don't think the higher end market will be affected too hard unless dealers get desperate. So far I'm not seeing it. As others of said, people who are over extended may be forced to sell cheaply but I bet the dealer marks it right back up to market.

 

My feeling is that the game for Ferrari (and who could blame them for that...) has been to find more customers than the real amateurs who wanted the cars and were ready to pay the price... There are currently 76 Pista for sale on mobile.de, many almost new and some already under MSRP.
If all buyers had bought these cars just because they loved them and could really afford them, I don't think there would be so many for sale.

 

Since the short term is always difficult to predict, those who predicate their investment stategy upon a near term horizon will generally not do well . Those who are experienced equity investors take a long term approach which avoids panic buying or selling which ultimately leads to positive results. For those who are financially secure, the purchasers of an F8 or Pista should focus on the joy of ownership and not be concerned about depreciation in the short term. To avoid financial anxiety, regular production super car purchases must be viewed as depreciating assets whose raison d'être is simply to provide joy and pleasure to their owners. Think of it as going on a luxury vacation and dining at expensive restaurants. I would rather buy a car that I love driving and depreciates than one that holds its value but my enjoyment of it is minimal.

 

That banking thing I mentioned earlier...already seeing the signs. Govt can't print it's way out of this.

And this is just JP Morgan:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-earnings-q1-2020.html

BUT, I do think ultimately recovery will be strong...just a matter of when.

 

Worth noting that a lot of those provision are related to an accounting change which requires they reserve all predicted losses up front. It still remains to be seen what losses they will actually end up taking vs releasing reserves later. They definitely have losses, that it without a doubt.

Q2 will be the only way to tell the extent of this economic damage. Q2 results only include a couple weeks of shutdowns.

The crazy thing is that the stay at home orders are extended even into areas that seemingly and likely have barely any cases and are much less dense. It's crazy to me to think rural communities are under the same orders as metropolitan areas. I mean, it doesn't even make sense. When the orders are lifted, we know for a fact there will be cases out there. We know that New York, LA, Chicago, Detroit, etc will all have hundreds, maybe even thousands of asymptomatic cases out there. Without a vaccine, there is practically no way to eradicate the virus entirely.

So on May 1st, Los Angeles lifts the order with, say, 500 cases.
Why on April 14th can't some rural county with 12 cases by open now? 12 is less than 500 and the density is vastly lower.

 

Im afraid to tell you guys what I think... but here goes:

WFH is a growing factor, but it will not be as strong a transformation as many predict.

I think the real transformation will be the combination of companies becoming even more productive and efficient with less employees. Employees are very expensive. Along with people getting used to more payments and transfers from the government.

I think you are looking at record low workforce participation- for a very long time, a real structural change.

With AI and more robots/ automation, we are never going back.

My feeling is 30-40% of the jobs we have lost will remain lost.

The stock market will come back and people will say the recovery is very strong, but inequality as well as government power will grow.

 

I remember seeing a ton of Speciale on the market when that car was new. And I remember several dealers calling me up asking me to make an order for a Speciale- and that was supposedly in a good economy. They simply make a lot of these cars and it takes time for the market to absorb them. Right now there is far less absorption. It is a very difficult time.

 

Just another perspective. We've been hearing about robots taking over for decades, its not happening. People are just redeployed. The job market for skilled labor remains very high and that will not change for a long time. I own different types of businesses and all of them have their unique requirements however they all have one thing in common and that is we can never find enough of the right people. The stock market to me is like Vegas, the market moves for reasons outside of our control. I personally dont believe in "long term" equities, I invest in tangible assets and businesses. Long term stuff for me is compounded interest. I do trade however and enjoy the volatility we see now.

I dont see any of this effecting the higher end auto market to a point that people freak out. I can see where people might want to liquidate to take advantage of some business opportunities that might pop up.

 

I love your perspective and I pray you are right. I would LOVE to be wrong. But I remember how jobs never came back after 08. I think this is going to be much much worse in terms of jobs for regular people.

 

the virus is accelerating the demise of things that were on their way. wealth is being reshuffled and demand is next to zero. these forces are massively deflationary and most things will decrease in value as all markets and products seek a new equilibrium. the value of human talent continues to decline and humans will be antiquated tools in 20 or 30 yrs. univeral income will be the way of the world, even for us capitlaiasts.

 

Cheer up men and perhaps the odd lady. I apologize if I am omitting non binary individuals. This virus will eventually be history and the world will recover albeit perhaps more cognizant of sanitary procedures and hygienic protocols. Skilled labor will continue to be valued due to its societal shortage notwithstanding the emergence of highly sophisticated artificial humanoids. The most dire threat to the first world will be the nefarious covert expansion of globalism with its attendant concentration of all pervasive power in the hands of the elites. Socio - economic hegemony will be the result with the freedom and liberty of individuals it’s sacrifice.

 

The day I wrote the check for my Pista I assumed the money was long gone. If in the future I sell the car and recoup some, all or more of the money- bonus! Otherwise- c ya later

 

Good news is you will likely recoup most when that time comes.

 

literally zero chance.

 

Honestly- don't really care. If I do, great. if not, oh well. Last vacation I took cost me a pretty penny with the family. That is money Im never getting back but I have a great experience. Every time I get into my car its a vacation and an experience.

 

And thats the only way to buy these cars!

 

How do you now this? You are so convinced and based on what? You aren't even in the market for any of these cars. When is the last time you bought a car over $100K? You aren't even in the game. Funny how all of these experts on the market aren't in it.

 

There just seems to be a lot of people on car forums who don't have the car(s) and like to troll the ones that do...

It's very sad to see/read.

 

I have 25 cars. I dont troll. I buy what i love and sell what i dont love. I bought a tdf and 3rd cali in 2017.