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Is the V12 the T Rex Given 2032 the UK Extinction date

Discussion in 'FF/Lusso/F12/812S' started by FFantastic, Feb 13, 2020.

  1. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior
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    Mar 23, 2015
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    The UK government has just announced that ALL sales and production of Petrol, Diesel and Hybrids of any kind will be banned by 2032.

    500,000 new charging points to be built by then,
    Hydro carbon fuel will be taxed to encourage all petrol, diesel and hybrids off the road
    Annual road fund will soar
    Towns and cities over 500,000 population will ban non 100% elec transport

    Does this signal the end?
    Should we capitalise on the collections while they still have value?
    Will we all be rushing to buy the last Typewriter just before the advent of the PC?
    Is this an 'On the Beach' moment in time for us?

    God I hope I'm dreaming this.
     
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  2. Therry

    Therry Karting

    May 26, 2010
    98
    Ferrari will need to build petrol cars only for race track without homologation, but they will still could sale road legal petrol cars in countries like China, India or Brazil
     
  3. KarlA69

    KarlA69 Formula Junior

    Oct 9, 2017
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    Karl
    The long term future for large engine petrol cars is undoubtedly bleak. However, the adoption rates of electric cars is woefully low (<2% of new car sales in the UK) and no one seems to have solved the chicken/egg conundrum of electric cars and charging infrastructure. These issues will be solved, but I'd say we have 10+ years or so of (fairly) unrestricted use of the dinosaurs... I plan to use my V12 as much as I can!
     
  4. ANOpax

    ANOpax Formula Junior

    Jul 1, 2015
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    Vote with your feet and leave (I have - but for other reasons).
     
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  5. F142George

    F142George Karting
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    Sadly China's ban comes even earlier. 2030 for major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc.
     
  6. willcrook

    willcrook Formula 3

    Feb 3, 2009
    1,110
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    it's over, the market will collapse too eventually and only the iconic cars will retain any value as works of art imo.

    petrol will eventually be taxed so high that only the super rich can use it
     
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  7. wrs

    wrs F1 Rookie
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  8. LVP488

    LVP488 F1 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2017
    3,150
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    Just a few years ago the trend was to switch from petrol to diesel because the diesel was producing less CO2; Porsche embraced this trend but they were probably feeling they were forced.
    Now after the VW dieselgate and the realisation than independently of CO2 emissions, the fine particles produced by diesel engines are a serious concern for human health, that trend is reverted.
    So the miraculous electric solution may as well face dramatic challenges if / when production of electric cars will represent a significant share of the new cars.
    Also, for whatever reason bio ethanol is not very popular now, but technically it's very easy to replace fossil fuel with it, working around most of the CO2 argument.
     
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  9. italiafan

    italiafan F1 World Champ

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    #9 italiafan, Feb 13, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
    I feel sorry for all the sheeple in UK, I guess you're used to being told what to do by others.
     
  10. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 Veteran
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    Jun 11, 2013
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    I think its very easy to see a few data points and then generalize.

    No doubt we are in a period of transition. And it seems entirely reasonable to say the end is near for ICE cars.

    However, it's also reasonable to employ some healthy skepticism.

    What will happen as they try to phase out ICE via mandates and increased fuel taxes. The very people they are trying to help are the people who will be most directly harmed. You saw what happened in France with the yellow vests. That was over a relatively small (compared to what we're talking about here) increase in fuel costs.

    What would happen in the UK or other Western country if the government were to force such a dramatic change on to working people? They are already taxed and fined at a very high level. There's no room. The economy would come to a halt. And you would probably have large scale protests.

    This is less of a problem for China because they are not as far along the economic development curve as the Western nations (although they have made remarkable progress, so this is not a dig at China), and the government of China can more easily issue and enforce demands to its population.

    In the West, it is in the interests of the politicians today to make grand proclamations about the distant future. But as it gets closer, I predict these dates to get "adjusted". They simply cannot afford the political consequences as I mentioned above.

    Also, an engineer friend of mine who knows about such things tells me that even if we could change all cars today into EVs, there is not enough physical supply on the planet of the various elements that go into making EVs (batteries particularly)- so theres no physical way to make all cars into EVs.

    And not everyone will live in an area that is suitable to plug in and charge an EV.

    And the cost of building and owning EVs is higher.

    There are other practical limitations as well.

    And I say this as someone who does believe in human contribution to what we are now calling "climate change" and I really have no objection to EVs for daily transport. I think they have some distinct advantages over ICE for your typical daily driving- torque, less sound, smoother running, etc...

    For whatever its worth, my guess right now at the beginning of 2020 is the next 10 years will see the ICE soldier on, but it will be smaller, more heavily turbo charged, more electrified.

    Specific to Ferrari, my guess is we are near the end for this current generation of large capacity V12 which first appeared on the Enzo in 2002. Call it a 20 year run- thats pretty darn good! My pure speculation is they need a NA V12 as that really has come to symbolize Ferrari for many people, and they need the sound it brings. But they also need improved fuel economy and emissions. So this argues for a smaller capacity V12 with hybrid assist.

    So my guess is the current V12 is almost at the end of its life, and if you love its big torque, then you want to go out and get it. But I can imagine a smaller V12 making a higher pitched sound, likely revving faster, and perhaps with the hybrid making even more power. So I think the future is not quite so dim for the V12 nor even ICE in general.

    JMHO.

    (PS- I remember reading in the 2013 time frame about how all cars would be fully autonomous by 2020... we're 2 months into the new decade and so far we don't have anything close...)
     
  11. 635CSI

    635CSI Formula 3
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    A high hydro-carbon fuel tax will annoy us "drive for pleasure" Ferrari folk, but it won't kill us.
    The real looser will be high milage commuters and ordinary rural folk.
    Yellow vest sales will boom.

    Further the government has not come up with a way to replace the revenue it gets from fuel sales.
    In the UK, this exceeds the entire defence budget and is roughly equivalent to 20% of the annual health care budget.

    Add to that the cost of new infrastructure (whilst fuel tax revenues decline) , the lack of a breakthrough in battery tech, the dependence on minerals mined by children in the DRC, the un-recyclable nature of batteries, the discouragement of manufacturers to make more efficient hybrid cars and so on....

    The UK government is writing it's own suicide note.
     
  12. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior
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    Mar 23, 2015
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    The second revolution will come when the government charge the same for a battery charge as filling your tank with petrol. Where else will the tax come from.

    another sucker punch for the motorist with no options available
     
  13. ferrarifanatic25

    ferrarifanatic25 Formula Junior

    Apr 9, 2009
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    Classic case of government over regulation. I guarantee the free market can determine a solution to this issue (pollution/climate change) more efficiently and effectively than any ridiculous government imposed law can.


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  14. Borrow’d Mine

    Borrow’d Mine Formula Junior
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    Nov 28, 2019
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    The green movement renamed from Global Warming to Climate Change for a reason...anybody, anybody... ok, it’s because the GW science is so flawed. Climate Change is much easier to blame and to prove. Of course the climate is changing. Just as recent as the late 1970’s the same alarmists were saying Ice Age coming, and they didn’t mean internal combustion engine. Funny what 30 years will do.

    All I’m saying really is CC is popular and sure it’s real. My issue is that govt’s and politicians do these broad enactments that most likely have unintended consequences that harm the underprivileged most and all of us some.

    For sure the politicians don’t know what the world or the climate will look line in another 30 years. It may be cooling again for all we know. And are man and ICE to blame? Can we be to blame for the ice age that wiped out the dinosaur?

    It would be refreshing though to have a non-sponsored (no UN hack, no magazine, special interest, etc.) debate by credible scientist so they could just be honest and tell us what they really believe without fear of reprisal, banishment, vocational disaster. They just might conclude what I bet a lot of people intuitively know - we don’t really know for sure if or how much man’s activities on the earth affect the climate.




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  15. ferrarifanatic25

    ferrarifanatic25 Formula Junior

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    Unfortunately climate change has become just another political ploy to get votes. Nobody really understands it but as long as it gets votes and those who support it receive the cherished moniker of being labeled “progressive,” people will line up by the millions to join the cause.


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  16. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    I'm fine with everyone else on the road driving an EV. Lets face it they are not enthusiasts. Better if they even just take public transportation. Until then please go out and buy that battery powered appliance so you can commute. The V12 ICE is for a special group of automotive enthusiasts and fuel here is cheap and abundant far into the future. An EV will never get a thumbs up and a huge smile when passing by.
     
  17. 635CSI

    635CSI Formula 3
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    Another question is how would the state differentiate between domestic and transport electricity?
    Putting up domestic power costs is political suicide.

    Further where is the power going to come from? A massive nuclear building programme?

    Huge capital investment will be required, power stations, charging networks and, as an alternative to fuel duty, a nationwide net work of road pricing hardware.

    Over budget and behind times infrastructure project like HS2 or Hinkley Point gives us clues of how well that will go.
    We don't even seem capable of dealing with pot holes.in the roads.
     
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  18. Newjoint

    Newjoint Formula Junior

    Jan 17, 2016
    254
    The sky is falling...err...until it doesn’t.
    Climate change is the woke way for another government power grab from ordinary folks. It’s about control. It’s about eliminating soft drinks. It’s about legalizing drugs to subdue (and further tax) the public. It’s about monitoring and modifying everything you do 24/7.
    Well, They’ll have to pry the steering wheel from my cold dead hands before I let the above happen.
    Forza Ferrari! And vote!


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  19. nads

    nads Formula Junior
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    Just another example of inept politicians wanting to run before they can walk. o_O:mad:
     
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  20. italiafan

    italiafan F1 World Champ

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    They can’t reliably predict the weather three days hence.
     
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  21. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 Veteran
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    Property tax- people move. Buildings don't. But properties are already taxed too highly. Don't tell that to those in power though. They don't want to hear it- they think money will just keep coming. They have not lived through eras of declining property values and thus, declining tax receipts.... not only will it will happen, but it could be quite severe... (sorry for the downer).
     
  22. Bamsefar

    Bamsefar Formula Junior

    Nov 26, 2012
    352
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    Just to give some perspective:

    Some people seems to like to well ban petrol and diesel engines, since the pollute the air. Well that is per definition true.

    However

    Each person on the planet them self actually pollute a lot more. A LOT more.

    A car driven 15000 km per year has a carbon dioxide I think is about 2 ton (new car that is) - a person has the responding of 58 ton (not my number, it is from a report from Lunds Universitet and a environmental professors report). This includes things like clothes (manufacturing, transport and so on), food, transport and so on - what one single person "consumes" just to be able to live (not pleasures or anything, now we are talking about the most basics needs just to stay alive). 29 times more than a normal petrol/diesel car.

    So if any person who like to say lets reduce carbon dioxide from petrol/diesel cars - then start with limiting the number of people that are allowed on the planet.
    I do not think that will happen, but bang-for-the-carbon-dioxide it is for sure more important to limit the number of people than banning petrol/diesel cars.

    And if one sticks with this to change from petrol/diesel, well then I suggest that the governments in each country starts to buy up all petrol/diesel cars.
    Not going to happen either - but this is also better than just banning them. You like to remove them, then buy them and destroy them. Not going to happen no.
     
  23. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 Veteran
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    Yes, I've often thought if someone really wanted to be green, then stop buying stuff and using electricity. Go back to pre-industrial living. There are some people who do this. You can do it too. I'd like to see how many sign up.
     
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  24. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior
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    The Elephant in the room is always 'Population Growth'. No one wants to talk about it too much because to admit to the only answer being global birth control is labelled as Racist, Fascist, Selfish, inhumane and tantamount to the George Orwellian way of the future. But the truth is exponential population growth will kill the planet sooner or later.

    I would give generously to a mass contraceptive programme for over populated barren third world countries and those with a large family culture riven with poverty but now I suppose I'll receive the wrath from those who disagree and label me as one of the above.
     
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  25. Newjoint

    Newjoint Formula Junior

    Jan 17, 2016
    254
    The issue with birth control is inevitably it looks like China’s system in the 80sand 90s with people being sterilized and female infants euthanized
    In the end there are far fewer young people to support the society and provide care for the older generations.
    Besides the human race will inevitably reach a crisis- war, famine, ICE Age, new disease. (Coronavirus anyone?)- or we’ll get hit by meteor or asteroid and only roaches and rats survive the cataclysmic event.
    So get out and drive for tomorrow we die!


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