Future Vintage Market.

I believe that the vintage market is mainly driven by older financially secure people that can afford the cars without too much heartache. This will always make this end of the market more stable and slightly immune to global financial problems. I just can't see these limited production cars taking too drastic of a hit as long as the market doesn't go completely crazy again.

 

Uro.

I sense "wishful thinking" at play here.

This is not a "wishful thinking" market. The prices have risen, for the most part, because collectors have bought the cars. The last big run up was speculator driven.

So the last market was like the Hunt brothers and silver. This one is more like, well, the steady rise of the stock market. There will be bumps, of course, but I don't think you can expect a 50% deflation of the prices.

However, should you finally decide to buy a car, and actaully go through with the purchase, the market will drop 25% the day after you pay your first major repair bill. Causing you to sell before the bottom drops out of the market.

Yep, that's right, you have the ability to cause a "Black Thursday" in the Ferrari Market

DM

 

My feeling is that the market rise is tied to three things: 1) "cheap" (low interest rate) money and 2) the rise in housing prices. "Cheap" loans made it possible for collectors - people who desired these cars since their youth (3) - to bid, and in some cases overpay, for the car of their dreams, driving the market up. And the source of much of the cheap money in the last few years has been the housing bubble. When those two things disappear, we'll probably see the market slide a little, but not a halve in value.

My feeling - and it's just a guess - is that there is a smaller, maybe 20-40% downside, that will come when the interest in these cars fades a bit, either due to a recession or the aging of "baby boomers" who remember and long for '60s and early '70s Ferraris moving on to other concerns (like financing their retirement).

That said, the market probably won't collapse entirely if only because with each passing year the cars are becoming increasingly rare, and that, in itself, is worth something.

 

The great cars will go up in value, but I don't think quite as quickly as they have in the last year or two...

 

Uro,

Please note: The ship has left the dock. You are not on the ship.

I still can't believe you didn't buy that nice 330GTC for $70k.


Good Luck,

Art S.

PS. Now, for the same $$ you can buy a nice 330 GT (no C).

PPS. If you wait a few more years, prices may come back down but that's a few more years of your life without a Ferrari. By the time you finally get one you will be too old to really enjoy it.

 

Don't count your money yet. The Hunt Brothers is an apt comparison; it is all about supply and demand. There are really not many of these fast price moving cars surviving, many of those in near permanant collections (three very lage collections near me in the Washington area alone) in these very small markets cases, where any buy is a significant portion of the AVAILABLE FOR SALE suppy, the price moves, however the reverse is also true, if a few are dumped the market plumets. Neither motion having anything to do with long term fundamentals, what IS more likely are higher prices for parts, insurance and labor..........Michael Bayer #9727 & #14947

 

IMHO, for the past 10 years prices for some cars, such as the Daytona, had been surprisingly stagnant (and great bargains), so the recent run up is just market forces catching up to their true value.

 

I know exactly when the car prices will fall. I have an inside tract here, because I am special . Plus, I have the benefit of having owned lots of tech stocks 6 years ago...

So, when will older ferrari prices fall?

1) The moment I decide to buy one. Within 24 hours it will shed 80% of its value...

2) The moment I sell the testarossa to get a boxer... boxers will plummet. Of course, there will be a sudden rise in white testarossa prices, as people shift money....

So, uro, you let me know when you are ready. I will go out and buy the nicest 1960's ferrari I can find. I am always willing to help out a friend .

 

There will always be relative imbalances in the pricing between various models, but in general I doubt they are going to go significantly down. A few may have overreached and will drop from their highs, but the average car isn't going to get significantly cheaper.

I personally think the ripple will extend through the 70s cars before it's done. BBs and 400s are just too great a value relative to other models. Should a BB be less than a Daytona? Sure, but 1/3 the price? That's an imbalance, in my opinion.

 

In my opinion the only Ferrari built after the Daytona that will hold its value and or go up will be the 288GTO. As for the 400i, I would hate to buy one and end up needing to do an engine rebuild.

 

Probably also worth noting that not all vintage Ferraris will be as valuable 30 years from now as they are today. IMHO - blue chip cars with low production numbers and historical significance will always be prized. High volume (more than 250, just to pick a number) GT cars will not fair as well long term.

 

Well said, Dave.

Also well said!

 

The cars that will go up in value are those MOST DESIRED by the general population. There will always be a special group of cognecenti that will give their last dime for california spider, etc...

But look at american muscle cars...they ALL went up. Even ramblers, etc. When Gen x/y/z become fortunate enough to be in their 50's, then 1970's and 1980's cars will be golden. I think 308's and testarossa will be very expensive one day, despite significant production numbers. These are cars that the MASSES desire. And its the MASSES that drive prices up via speculation...

 

Michael,

I think Uro is talking about cars in GTC or Daytona caliber, not GTOs, LMs, etc. The good ones now sell for restoration cost + a little bit, and there is a large population who wants them and can afford them. I doubt there will be a large price drop unless WWIII, depression, etc. hits.

Regards,

Art S.

 

Although I really enjoy FerrariChat discussions such as this one put me off.

What's the point discussing which car's price will go up, analyzing market trends and stuff like that. These are cars for crying out loud not Van Goghs. Buy them if you like them and enjoy them if you can.

 

I think we all hope the cars we own go up in value...its a pleasant benefit of owning a classic...

And actually, these cars are likely closer to being van goghs than cars, these are works of art, no?

 

I'ts all just a big conspiracy to ensure Uro doesnt buy one

seriously though, if the naughty Iranian's do start causing more trouble I can see the whole classic/muscle car market both in Europe (ok we dont really do muscle cars) and the US going splat!

 

Stratos,

If you don't like the discussion, don't read it.

If you think vintage, hand-built Ferraris are just cars I would strongly recommend that you buy a Toyota Supra or BMW M3. They have better performance and are not considered art on wheels.

Art S.

 

I'm gonna say this for, hopefully, the last time. For the next 5 to 10 years, Baby Boomer nostalgia will be hot. Why? The first Baby Boomers will turn 65 in 2010. Before they "retire," most Boomers will have plenty of money because their kids will be out of college.

Ebay is gonna be huge!

Slot cars, Chatty Cathy, Bell Bottoms, American Iron, and, yes, Ferraris are gonna be hot.

Git while you can.

Dale

 

America, being a new, self-absorbed culture, our taste for the finer art forms has always lagged behind our real buying power, which is the reason why vintage Ferraris are not in greater demand. This is changing though, because, as well off as we are, we constantly strive for that certain “refinement” and “sophistication” of the Old World--- things that money alone hasn’t been able to bring us.

So, that said, tomorrow’s Daytonas will not be traded on the open market any more often than the 250GTO is today. The difference between 39 and 1100 is not that wide in the realm of popular demand.

john

 

Some other thoughts:

Remember that there are 2 or 3 billion consumers in China and India that may be on the verge of filling their garage. I suspect many, if not most, successful businesspersons from those areas finished their education in Europe or North America and were deeply influenced by our "wretched excesses " Recall the binge buying of several Japanese collectors driving prices to the rafters.

Also, the thought occurs that Ferrari prices may continue to rise BECAUSE real estate values are falling and domestic stock markets, except for our beloved oil, have experienced relatively begnign returns compared to the real estate and hard assets. Investors move amongst asset classes looking for better returns and vintage cars may be in for a roll.

 

Sam231: Donald Kendal years ago had the same thought: marketing Pepsi to the Chinese "...if each person there bought only one can a week that would be billions...." Great theory, never worked. Theoretical future values are helpful in negotiating with spouses, however, with each other here, potentially delusional. My boyhood friend Ned Lawler paid far less than 20,000 for a wonderful late series II 330 years ago. During the 80s madness Ned frequently got calls from Japanese businessmen with sight unseen offers in excess of $250,000, which in the mid to late 80s was a lot of money. Ned refused, saying he just liked the car, later when the market crashed he still had no regrets, he still likes the car, and he still believes if ever he sold it he would have to buy another. So unless you are going to switch marques, the paper profit is only delusional. Enjoy the car you have for the certainty of the pleasure it will bring you every day. Michael Bayer #9727 & #14947

 

Michael,

Well said.

Regards,

Art S.

PS. There are nuances to all of these points but on a macro level it works.