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crystal ball time (have 360/F430 hit their price bottom?)

Discussion in '360/430' started by artsd, Jun 25, 2018.

  1. artsd

    artsd Karting
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    May 6, 2009
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    I realize that nobody can really answer this question but I would love to hear some opinions: have 360/F430 hit their price bottom?

    There could be a global financial crisis, war, etc. that could hugely hurt the value of these cars. But assuming nothing that unpredictable happens, what do you think?

    I am not an F-car owner. More of a dreamer sitting on the sidelines. Have had Porsches in the past. Thinking about Porsche 911, 360, or F430 now.

    I regularly do Autotrader and Cars.com searches for 348, F355, 360, and F430 covering the southeast US. I am not interested in 348 or F355 (even though they are beautiful cars) but I just like to see the prices relative to the others. It is common to see 348/F355 starting at $50K. Higher mileage (or missing records) 360 starting at $60K and F430 starting at $90K. Cars with accident history can be 10% cheaper than that. I am not considering manual cars which of course are going for a premium.

    Considering that 348/F355 and 360 aren't that far apart in price, makes me believe that 360 at the entry level price of $60K may be pretty safe (safe as in buying one may not result in too much more depreciation).

    Is that sounds reasoning?

    Of course there are plenty of 360/F430 in the $100K+ range and I assume they will come down in value with mileage added. I am really only considering the value of higher mileage care (say 30K+ miles).
     
  2. Hypek9

    Hypek9 Karting

    Apr 9, 2012
    154
    360 in australia hit their low around 2-3 years ago and have since gone up around 30%
     
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  3. Zed82

    Zed82 Formula Junior

    Sep 28, 2017
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    The car market globally has been inflated since 2015. If this is long lasting or not will be interesting to see. I would feel pretty safe with a good history and good looking 360 at around 60k. F430 is still depreciating. However i would not buy either if i cared too much about depreciation and repair bills. Either way you are going to be opening that wallet.
     
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  4. efg2014

    efg2014 Formula Junior

    Sep 14, 2014
    404
    Northern California
    You can find 360s around $60,000, however if you are able to go up about to around $75,000 you will have a lot more choices.
     
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  5. basscase415

    basscase415 Karting
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    Jun 10, 2017
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    In the relative-to-other-cars sense, I don't know that they've hit rock bottom, I just think it feels "close enough" to make purchase reasonably justifiable.

    For what it's worth, Sports Car Market made the same call just last month ("The Ferrari 360 Moment is Now").

    In the absolute sense, I'm pretty positive there will be another economic calamity in the next 10-20 years wherein values will fall off a cliff vs where there are today. But since I have no idea when that will be, and doubt I'll be in a buying mood any more than anyone else at that time. . . I might as well enjoy life in the meantime.
     
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  6. mchas

    mchas F1 Rookie
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    If you are sensitive to $10k swings in price, be very careful buying any of these cars because you can end up with a repair bill that costs that much or more. The prices will fluctuate but the cost of repairs will always be high.
     
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  7. Bob in Makiki

    Bob in Makiki Formula Junior
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    May 30, 2017
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    Subscribe to Ferrari Market Letter. It is well worth the money if you are interested in buying one of these cars. They keep and report good data in their "Asking Price Index." You will see that the asking price for the 360 has been basically flat for the past three years, going down a bit but within -4% to -7% or so. The 430 is also relatively flat, but has gone up about the same amount. But, better to subscribe and see for yourself.

    Similarly, Hagerty.com has great data for the 360 (and also shows the market has been relatively flat in the past few years). Unfortunately, Hagerty does not include the 430 in its data, so it isn't very helpful for that car. Access to Hagerty is free, so you should certainly check it out.

    Sports Car Market is another good source, but like Ferrari Market Letter requires a subscription to access its data. Again, however, if you are going to spend this much money on a car, it seems reasonable to spend a little money to get access to the best data you can find.

    There are lots of threads about market value of various versions of the 360 and 430 here, and everyone has an opinion. But I think most of us agree that they are wonderful cars. I hope you find one you like, get it, and enjoy it!
     
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  8. KC360 FL

    KC360 FL Formula 3
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    #8 KC360 FL, Jun 25, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2018
    I'd say keep in mind the asking price and the selling price. Sometimes thousands apart. Values seem to have stabilized with the 360s-- with the exception of the 6MT cars which from what I've seen have dropped somewhat. But with that said it does seem if you find the right guy selling the right car (for one's tastes) then a buyer may get a deal. Really comes down to who needs to sell and who doesn't. I have friends that paid whopping premiums on their Harley's, and after a few years tried to sell them, and decided they would keep the bike instead of selling it on the cheap as the Harley market has tanked.

    I bought my 360 last August after an exhaustive search. I've since then followed the 5 different websites that I visited regularly last year while looking for my car. Most cars are the same ones listed last year and the prices have not fallen much. So I'm guessing most current owners (dealers included) selling their 360s are in the camp of "if I can't get that for it, I'll keep it"

    IMO yes, I think the 360 market has gotten to the bottom. I don't regret buying my car last year. The price I paid for the car I got seems to have remained stable. But FWIW, I doubt I would have an easy time selling it today for near what I paid for it despite getting a great deal on the car.

    Also I tend to think and educated buyer will see the reliability of the 360 as a real advantage over previous models. They have their problems, but not too many and very few with a well documented cared for car. Certainly more miles on the road than sitting in the shop like previous models. Since the 360 has a good portion of maintenance done with the engine in the car it becomes more attractive to the used Ferrari buyer. Just my .02
     
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  9. artsd

    artsd Karting
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    Thanks for the great feedback everyone. I agree with the sentiment of many writers saying that even though the car might not drop much in value, a large repair bill could make that point moot. I've seen a few threads on these forums or seen cars listed for sale with quotes like "$30k spent on repairs last year". So it seems like if you think you can easily afford a $90k car you had actually better be able to afford a $120k car, just in case. I think there are plenty of Ferrari enthusiasts that aren't multi-millionaires who go for an F-car because it is their passion and 90k vs 120k is a big difference.

    It is that fear that leads me back to Porsche. I am not debating the merits of the 911 vs F-car because they are very different and I am not talking about high-end 911 GT3 or GT2 or even 911 Turbo. But for the price of a nice 17 year old 360 you can buy a 4 year old certified used 911 (say a 991 Carrera S) with a 2 year bumper to bumper warranty. That is great peace of mind.

    But then you hear that glorious V8 at red-line and the mind shuts down and all rational thought of goes out the window. :)
     
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  10. whatheheck

    whatheheck F1 Rookie
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    Ferrari's are the best car I have ever driven and owned.

    As many have mentioned and you have read, its not just the cost to acquire and we are good to go. We have to factor in cost to maintain and repair as it is definitely not cheap. Plus all the upgrades you want to do to it.

    All I can say is in my opinion, for me, its all money well spent as the smile these cars put on my face every time I drive it is priceless.

    Here's quick summary:
    Ferrari's are great cars. Havent talked to anyone yet that doesnt dream of owning one one day.
    For me, my 1st Ferrari, a 360 Spider was a dream car come true. No regrets. Love the car.
    Everything I spent on her I consider money well spent.

    I sold it after 2 years as its just costing me too much money.
    But I miss driving a Ferrari and we only live once so we have to go and keep going for a dreams.

    Anyway, again, just be prepared for maintenance and repairs when you get your Ferrari as they are not cheap...
    Dealers are very expensive, Indi's are cheaper, do the work yourself and you save a ton of money, plus the joy of accomplishment.

    I now own a F430 Spider now and Im 1,000% happy. I drive my car every chance I get.

    In case you have not seen my post when I had my 360 Spider, here it is for sharing.

    Dan
    https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/my-experience-owning-a-ferrari-360-spider-f1-after-7-months-of-ownership.463215/
     
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  11. Dewinator

    Dewinator Formula 3
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    Ultimately TCO wise there won’t be that big a disparity... the older Ferrari will take some more maintenance hits, but the newer Porsche will take a much bigger depreciation hit.

    The bigger difference is the Porsche is a great daily driver while the Ferrari is a great weekend car. Get both.
     
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  12. bellwilliam

    bellwilliam Formula Junior
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    Oct 25, 2014
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    imo, all prices are a bit inflated right now, because of how well stock market did in past ~8 years.
    If a stock market crashes, this market falls also.
     
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  13. RedNeck

    RedNeck F1 Veteran
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    Truth bomb right there. You can turn your own wrenches and save several thousand, but take it from a DIY'er, even after doing a ton of legwork and getting the absolute best prices on everything, I've still spent $7-8k in parts alone in 1.5 yrs of owning. If I had to pay for service on top of that....I shudder to think.
     
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  14. RossoCorsaItaly

    RossoCorsaItaly F1 Rookie
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    Depends on the car.

    Is the F430 6MT at rock bottom? No, could be inflated. Could be a bargain, too early to tell with the volatile movement all the stick cars have had.

    An 05 F430 F1 with 20k miles - Probably at near rock bottom and even if not rock bottom, the difference in how much it can depreciate will be negligible to the operating costs in general.
     
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  15. G. Pepper

    G. Pepper F1 World Champ
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    I've been watching 360's for about six years. Back then I wanted one, but couldn't afford it, so I got a 456M, because they were bottomed out at about $50K for average examples to $75K for the really great ones (Not including manual M's). I got one of the only Rosso Corsa M's with shields and a tan Daytona interior for $75K, and it had 7K miles on it. It sold 27K miles and $40K in service and restoration costs for exactly the same price early this year, so the desirable and rare ones are now firming up, but bargains can still be found.

    I decided 360's were at or near the bottom, so I got a rare sunroof/stick car with 25K miles for about $100K last November. Just in time, IMO, because the manual 360's are moving up now. The F1 cars are common as dirt, so they will still be bargains for a while. Caviats for possible financial upheavals. The 430 F1's will possibly settle a bit more, but the manuals are already out of sight.

    Best bang for the buck Ferrari right now is the 612. Some of those cars with low miles and desirable specifications that had $300K+ stickers are now trading at $100K. I'm planning to put one beside my 360 in a year or so. Forget manual 612's though, as they are absurdly priced around $250K+ already.

    The FF's are dropping like rocks, and ought to bottom out in about five years.
     
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  16. KC360 FL

    KC360 FL Formula 3
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    Jun 20, 2017
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    As a life long Porsche 911 owner I can empathize with you. After owning my last 911, a 1995 993 for 17 years, I decided it was time to venture out of the p-car world. As I have said many times, I loved my 993. The maintenance was minimal but not inconsequential as the A/C system had to be repaired due to an evaporator leak-- twice! over my time of ownership. Cost was about 3K each time. But with that said I do agree that the 911s are mostly reliable and I drove mine confidently anywhere. It was only a pleasure car so when I decided to trade it for my 360 Modena it had only 49K miles on it and it looked brand new. I got considerably more, but not crazy more, than what I paid for it all those years ago on the trade in for my 360

    Now with that said, I can say without a doubt, I absolutely don't miss it. After owning my 360 for about a year now I have had nothing but smiles. I purposely looked for a 360 from the dry west. I found mine as a car that lived all its life in CA, NV, AZ. It had only 21K miles on it. It had a new clutch installed a month before I purchased it and it had all the documentation that I carefully studied to see that all that needed to be done had always been done. For me that's the key. IMO far too many cars get bought without proper research and a lot of buyers just hope for the best. To add, I am the third owner and the second owner had owned the car for over 10 years. For me that was also key. My thinking was a guy that has owned a 360 for 10 years usually won't abuse the car as he will be the one paying for repairs in the long run. I found many cars with a list of owners totaling 5 or 6 all owning the car for only a few years at the most. I took that as a bad omen. And for me, as I've said before, I'm not a guy with unlimited funds, so I was certainly concerned with the maintenance costs.

    I have owned the car for almost a year (it will be a year in August) and I have spent very little on repairs and maintenance. I had all the fluids changed, the cooling system flushed and the brakes bled: $950
    I had the spark plugs and coil packs replaced (coils were cracked and one was mis-firing): $898

    I will be doing the timing belts next year. Probably still will cost me more to own than my 993 but... the 360 is IMO an animal compared to the predictable 911. It's edgier, way more fun to drive, much faster than my 993, and the looks, well, for me, it's one of the most beautiful automotive designs ever to flow from the pen of PininFarina.

    Choosing a 911 with the warranty certainly makes sense. Choosing a 360 is not a sensible decision in comparison. But for me, looking back, it was certainly the right decision-- by a long shot.
     
  17. artsd

    artsd Karting
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    That is a good point about the Porsche depreciation. I can definitely see a typical 991 Carrera or S dropping 10% a year for several years. So a 2015 $75k 991 bought today might be worth $45k 4 years from now. Hard to see the 360 losing the same percentage.
     
  18. vrsurgeon

    vrsurgeon F1 World Champ
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    If you only have one car you can own, and you can't have any other in your life.. buy a 911. Hands down the best single car anyone can own. I LOVE my 997 as my daily. When I first got it I thought to myself "do I really need to have the 360?" And the answer to that is YES! :) There is no other car like a Ferrari.

    I've been calling a recession for the last 3 to 5 years. But at the last minute the gubment steps in and adds stimulus. It can't go on forever and it won't. When it happens I suspect the 911 bubble will pop. There is no reason whatsoever why a 1980's SC should be over $30k. None. There is no reason the 993 is worth $50k+ for a base model. I remember before the 50th 911 anniversary and asset bubble when a good 993 was worth $30k ish. The entire Porsche line will be worth less. Too many made. Once you take the excess money boomers have had to buy the asset out of their hands and they can't overspend for an asset its price will drop.

    As far as 430's and 360's. I think personally there is a 10-15% drop left. The ones on the market don't sell quickly. Put downward pressure on pricing and they'll fall.

    If you have to worry about the drop in the value of the car you're buying, you're not ready to buy it. If you can buy it and truly don't care about the value, price or reliability and can just drive it two things will happen, it won't break and the price will go up. If you need it to maintain value for resale, the price will plummet and it will break often. it's just like stoplights and having to pee.
     
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  19. My 1st

    My 1st Karting
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    Curt is spot on. If you can only have one, Porsche. But if you have a backup, an old truck etc, the world is your oyster. I've been working my way through the sports car food chain for over 50 years ( God, that sounds old) and a Ferrari was always the pinnacle. Always a bit out of reach. Algar had the sweetest 166 Barchetta in white with blue stripes, but it was 8 grand. So I've survived on Porsches. Love them. Bought a new 911-50 and figured it was my last sports car purchase. Truly remarkable. Everyday driver, Blizzaks too for winter. A chance visit at Algar and a subsequent test drive, and the Porsche was swapped. The 360 is Porsche-like in reliability. Depreciating asset to one near the bottom of the depreciation curve.? Didn't matter to me that I bought at the low bid. My wife, always supportive of my car passion, questioned my going from a car she loved to one 14 years old. It has 3 previous owners, 3800 miles, but all took extremely great care and Algar had the records. And, thanks to Fchat, I have met the original owner who spec'd the car, and went on to improve it. I'm lucky. It has great Karma. If you find the right car that speaks to you, and the 360 will grab your lapel and say, "listen to me!" Buy it. Don't worry about where you are on the depreciation curve, 'cause the smile on your face will erase any pecuniary concerns.
     
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  20. SeaNile

    SeaNile Formula Junior

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    Wishful thinking but hopefully the 458 will depreciate as well a bit more and come next May my 458 shopping will begin. Loved my 360 that I had about 7-8 years ago and can't wait to get another Fcar in about a year.
     
  21. Dewinator

    Dewinator Formula 3
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    I personally think the 360 is becoming a classic and won’t really go down much further, especially the gated... however the ONLY time you’ll really know FOR SURE that the bottom has been hit is when 360s go for more than F430s.

    Sorry don’t mean to offend anyone but older cars eventually start going up while the newer ones are still going down... plus the 360 is sort of the classic design of the two.
     
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  22. Zed82

    Zed82 Formula Junior

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    It depends on the model. 355 is more worth today then the 360 but on the other hand will the 348 ever be more worth then the 355? Don´t think so. I think that the same thing will go fo 360 vs F430.
     
  23. Dewinator

    Dewinator Formula 3
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    I get your point and agree that it depends, but F355s are worth a lot less than 360s (particularly gated 360s). And 348s are close to 355s right now... whether they go higher depends a lot on how many in the generation that grew up liking that style want the Ferrari that was big during their formative years as they get older and can afford it.
     
  24. Frizzo1999

    Frizzo1999 Rookie

    Feb 23, 2018
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    I recently traded in my 2014 911 with 15000 miles for a 2006 f430 with 11000 and all I can say is WOW. If you're attempting to rationalize a Ferrari with TCO and ROI then you may be missing the true value metric.. TFI.. Total Fun Index..:)
     
  25. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
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    the risk is to the upside, not the down side.
     

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