Classic car market -especially high end cars- under pressure by future EV transfer?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by 275gtb6c, May 15, 2019.

  1. 275gtb6c

    275gtb6c Formula 3
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    Oct 30, 2006
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    As most car manufactures ceased development of fuel based cars and the world is in a energy transition, is the current classic car market under pressure? Likely is that the low and mid segment of fuel based cars eventually will vanish, what about the Mercedes 300 SL’s, Ferrari 275-750-or even a SWB? Will they lack use (most cities will forbid any fuel based cars mid 2030) so only be seen in museums?

    Perhaps as an example, the steam era is behind us and most trains are gone while some are left in museums and maintained by enthousiast but the value is a fraction compared when new.

    The next 5 years are stable I guess but on the long run multi-million cars might become very cheap but also pretty useless and nothing more than a nice object or piece of art.

    Curious about your point of view.

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  3. nis1973

    nis1973 Formula Junior

    Jan 19, 2013
    It’s a very good question. My hunch is that at some point it will matter and only really special, historically significant cars will retain the public’s interest and their value. Many say that internal combustion engine cars will become what horses are today, a mode of transportation that has lost all practical value but has retained the public’s fascination. Even if that turns out to be the case I still think it’ll apply mostly to the more special stuff. Only time will tell and for the time being the market doesn’t seem too preoccupied...
    275gtb6c likes this.
  4. Smiles

    Smiles Moderator
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    Nov 20, 2003
    Pittsburgh, PA
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    Matt F
    Counterpoint: the brass era cars still have market support.

    No one alive today collects them for nostalgia’s sake. There are very few opportunities to run them, either on the street or in car events. They are, in utilitarian terms, rather worthless.

    But a Stutz Bearcat is still worth a lot.

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  5. fatbillybob

    fatbillybob F1 World Champ
    Consultant Owner

    Aug 10, 2002
    No worries. You can make alcohol in your bathtub. Your car will run on alcohol with minor DIY level mods.
  6. Timmmmmmmmmmy

    Timmmmmmmmmmy Formula 3

    Apr 5, 2010
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    Timothy Russell
    Good point.
    I reckon someone will be able to design some form of synthetic fuel without the pollution of gasoline. Regardless the entire push from carbon based fuel is not targeted at classic cars, racing cars and even supercars since while they might be pro rata heavy polluters, their use is minimal and I can't imagine that even collectively the worlds pre 1950 car fleet, Ferrari's and racing cars make up more than a million cars total compared to the estimated 1.05 billion cars in the world. Even with pre 1970 cars included, surely the figure becomes less than 10 million vehicles compared to 995 million cars, many of which are solely used for the daily school run and daily commute. Whatever the exact % of automobiles are classics, racers or supercars, their lack of comparative use means that while they might be an easy target, they aren't the issue.

    This is going to sound socialist but what the hell, if the worlds govts spent enough on decent, clean and cheap public transport in major cities as they do on rubbish they could get most of the pointless emissions stopped, if they spent the rest on renewables and stopping people driving 3 tonne trucks to drop the kids off at school (and make the little brats walk) they would not need to ban cars anywhere. Regardless, classics aren't the point and hopefully enough well connected collectors will lobby the worlds govts to get exemptions. Rant over.
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  8. 275gtb6c

    275gtb6c Formula 3
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    Oct 30, 2006
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    Yes it is quite likely that the cars will run either on alcohol or (illegal) fuel :).
    But will people still pay a few million for these “toys” when keep running them with all kind of additional misery is harder every year.....

  9. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    Gasoline for cars is not going away anytime soon globally at least. As developed countries like the US and in the EU move to renewable/electric, the developing countries like China and India will want more cars and they will be gasoline powered. There will be no net decrease and it's just a shift/moving up a rung.
  10. nis1973

    nis1973 Formula Junior

    Jan 19, 2013
    I don’t think the original question was about availability of gasoline. I think gasoline will be available but interest in internal combustion engine cars may wane as they cease being the primary more of transportation...
  11. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    The blue chip vintage cars mentioned in the OP are basically already in museums (private collections) and don't get driven so it won't make a difference in the future. The multi million dollar cars will not become very cheap as they are already treated as art/nice objects.
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  13. Daytonafan

    Daytonafan F1 Rookie

    Oct 18, 2003
    Surrey, England
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    It’s been over 100 years since the horse has been a primary mode of transportation for the majority of the population but people still use them for sport and recreation. Will the market for classic/ collector cars contract - undoubtedly but the cream of cars will still retain a following.
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  14. Foncool

    Foncool Formula Junior

    Oct 27, 2011
    The push towards EVs is a regulatory Social Engineering phenomenon as opposed to a Market based push. The regulatory part is political that can and is changing. The globalist Social Engineers will fight to the death the undoing of their agenda of mandating a technology into a market that is clearly rejecting it. The political winds have been changing away from the excessive regulations from Brussels and Washington, a finally completed Brexit, a second Trump term, and the yellow vest protest will force the EV movement to be market based not regulatory based.
  15. Foncool

    Foncool Formula Junior

    Oct 27, 2011
    Look at what just happened in Australia, a complete rejection of the Climate Change agenda.
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  16. nis1973

    nis1973 Formula Junior

    Jan 19, 2013
    Totally agree. This was the essence of my original response. The very best, historically significant cars will retain interest and value. Rest likely not so much...
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  17. Mrpbody44

    Mrpbody44 F1 Veteran

    Jul 5, 2007
    St Augustine Florida
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    Steve Metz
    The functional utility of older cars is decreasing dramatically. You could drive a 60's car in 80's traffic and it was still a pleasant experience. Even a 1930's car back in the 80's. With the high volume of traffic and high speeds having a break down in an urban area is not much fun. I agree the higher end cars over $200,000 are now art objects or financial instruments and will be unaffected. Classic cars in the $10,000-$80,000 will be hit the hardest and we are seeing that now with cars from the 40's and 50's that are losing dollar value along with utility value.
    Timmmmmmmmmmy likes this.
  18. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini F1 World Champ

    Mar 2, 2005
    Absolutely agreed. Thank you.

    Marcel Massini
  19. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Jan 5, 2002
    Portland, Oregon
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    Second-tier Picassos (and there are a LOT of Picassos-- even third-tier ones) still sell for a fair amount of money. I expect that to be the case going forward for vintage cars as well. They may not claim the eye-popping values that a 250GTO will make, but there will be an audience for a 330GT regardless of any electric car mandate or anything else.

    There will be an audience for Alfas as well, and Porsches... both of which there are a lot of.
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  20. technom3

    technom3 F1 Veteran
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    Mar 29, 2007
    Phoenix AZ
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    look at the art market and technology.

    I can mount a beautiful screen on the wall and disply a monalisa or any painting I want... those paintings are in the 10s of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars...

    Yet I can go to walmart and buy a screen for 249 and accomplish it...

    Are the paintings worth any less because of this technology?
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  21. Bowzer

    Bowzer Karting

    Aug 3, 2016
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    Porsche Classic have committed synthetic fuel to keep their petrol classics running through any polluting regulation.
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  22. 360modena2003

    360modena2003 Formula 3

    Jul 11, 2009
    "Any pollution regulation" is not possible without legislation supporting it.

    The current interpretation is to ban "internal combustion engines", so the type and source of fuel would be irrelevant.

    Let's hope we can get beyond this current highly divisive green craze...

    Sent from my MAR-LX1M using Tapatalk
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  23. SoCal1

    SoCal1 F1 Veteran
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    Jun 14, 2011
    SoCal LA/OC
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    Tim Dee
    They still race horses and model T's
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  24. 360modena2003

    360modena2003 Formula 3

    Jul 11, 2009
    But not on public roads...and that makes all the difference.

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  25. TerryG!

    TerryG! Karting

    Feb 12, 2017
    Central UK
    How about the companies putting Tesla motors into classics? It's another approach for any who want both old car and 'green' kudos.
  26. turbo-joe

    turbo-joe F1 Veteran

    Apr 6, 2008
    southwest germany
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    romano schwabel
    and then also a USB stick with the sound of the original classic engines and a speaker?
    I don´t like to think to this situation :(
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  27. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 Veteran
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    Jun 11, 2013
    A horrible idea. You destroy the history and you make the car much less safe due to the massive increase in weight.
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  28. ChadR

    ChadR Karting

    Jun 19, 2019
    Central Florida
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    Tajil Black
    Alcohol for the win.

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