Man these guys sure are trying huh?.....

I've been saying this OVER AND OVER on here and nobody wants to hear it. Get ready to catch the same heat I did. I was just trying to save some owners a few bucks and the potential buyers a few bucks on their cars by not handing over their money to these speculators. I think the party ended back in March/April. It is a bubble at this point. Brokers cornering the market, artificially inflating prices, speculators dumping the museum cars (sub 1k miles) and cashing out. The correction is coming. To answer who will be holding the keys?? The answer is THE BROKERS. And they will have no choice but to give up the greed game, sell the cars for what they're ACTUALLY worth, or return the cars back to auction, where THE REAL prices will be shown. Or keep the cars, and go out of business. Can't blame them for taking advantage of an opportunity, but the opportunity has come and gone. Many of us, myself included know what these things are actually worth, and that is what dictates the price. The brokers can play the game all they want, but people seem to already be calling the bluff. Why the crap would I hand over 110-120 grand to one of these brokers when I know one that just sold privately for 75k? Single mirror, no stories, clean, and sub 30k miles.

Also, the 512TRs starting cooling off A LONG time ago. These guys were pumping them into the 250-300 range. And they've been falling for the past six months. Me thinks the 512tr is double a Testarossa in value, similar to a 575m vs 550. So when the TRs drop back to the 80-100 range, (still an increase from before). Then the 512s will hover at the 180-210 range.

 

I think those cars come with an autographed Miami Vice poster, which could justify the $200K+

 

We ARE hearing you Brad and we are of the same opinion !

Only some greedy guys just keep hoping and posting ... we Veterans know better

 

Speaking of which -- does anybody know what happened to the Miami Vice car that was advertised on eBay a while ago asking $1.5M?

 

You are correct. But missing one thing. These guys will not go out of business. They more then likely stocked up on the cars at whole sale prices in the 35-50k range depending on year and condition. If the prices on the cars level out to a "real" number, they will still turn a very healthy profit. They spotted an opportunity in the market early enough that very well could have made them huge amounts of money.

If I was a car dealer, I certainly would have had a couple in inventory with prices that reflected the current Ferrari bubble. Not at 200k mind you, but in the 100's for sure for an exceptionally clean example.

 

Perhaps slightly too many TR's built to be truly valuable this time around, but eventually their time will come ..... still $100k for a flat12 mid engine Ferrari, still looks very well priced in this current market, so who knows?
The 512Tr is in a different league due to limited production numbers, however and values will im sure continue to climb.
BR,
Jez

 

this is my favorite thread so far - a guy who has been a member for 9 years comes on for his annual post and it's a dooms day call. Im fine with people thinking the world will eventually fall apart - im actually one of them.....BUT

brad no one is flaming you. You're failing to provide a thesis that has substance and im trying hard to understand your point of view. You respond by labeling your opinions as fact with a "you will see" tone.

im getting tired of these threads and will at some point stop following them. im copying and pasting 2 posts from other threads and I really wld appreciate a response.

Post1:
"for you naysayers, are you saying the car market is idiosyncratic? ie, stocks, real estate, bonds will do fine but cars will pop? I can assure you that wont happen. I think this is where the bubble popping camp falls short - what are you guys actually saying? Are you saying QE was the root of all evil and ultimately markets will fail again? are you saying the world is going to 2008 again? if ur saying that then yes cars cld depreciate. I can guarantee you no one who can do simple math is going to sell a car and buy a 10yr treasury at 2.3 and most rational people are not aggressively allocating to equities after a 6 yr bull market. last time I checked my rich friends already own 2 or 3 houses so if they add another they either have the cash or they'll trade one for one. So if u wanna say we are going back to 2008, fine. to say that the world will stay in tact but cars specifically will go back to 2008 prices is just not rational."

Post 2:
"hopefully someone can illustrate the scenario where cars go down significantly but stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and FX hold in tact. because that's what wld have to happen to label the car market as a bubble. maybe what these people mean is the whole world is in a bubble and everything will go down massively. or maybe they just don't know"

maybe im not smart enough to understand but id like specific, concrete, and articulate points regarding how cars are a bubble but everything else is fine. The clients set most of the prices and the brokers/dealers don't have balance sheets big enough to corner a market so how are you going to blame them for "speculation". The brokers/dealers are agents, not principals. im sorry Im asking for stick figures but 4 years into a global QE world id like to understand how cars are bubblicious while all the other big assets classes are not.

also lets quantify a bubble pop - stocks have gone down 35% multiple times, down 48% peak to trough in 08/09. Real estate went down as much or more depending where. Countries default all the time. So what are we talking about when the car bubble pops? f40s go back to $450? dinos back to $80k? 288s back to $700k? what happens to the new exotic car market then? the new 488 will be $200K instead of $400k? 458s came out in 2010 during the days when people didn't know what hit them and there was still a wait for most people. I look forward to concise, relevant, articulate responses.

so talk to us, describe how cars go bust in a global world that stays in tact. or just concede and say you think the world is going bust and cars will go along with it - that im sure we can all swallow. Pls include levels for the 10yr and USD vs. Euro as well in your scenarios. Trying to get a sense if you dooms day guys forecast an inflationary or deflationary environment over the next 5 to 10 yrs.

 

Some of these comments have no basis here, or curiously I'm interested about the real reason some doom and gloom experts on this board continue to disparage Testarossa values despite the facts.
OP ponders on the reason why a Green/Gold Testarossa asking a premium price hasn't sold in a matter of 5 days unlike most other Testarossas in that price range. They do however neglect to mention other Testarossa sales (in more popular colors and higher miles) which have happened in the $120-$140k range within the last few weeks.

 

FWIW, the Diablo frenzy has also come to a grinding halt. The only cars on the market now are the stupid priced ones that don't sell.

 

grinding halt? how about this - on Friday I found out roy was getting a silver SE30 in - I was excited - on Saturday it had a deposit - I wasn't excited anymore...

shark01 what cars do you currently own and what have you bought/sold in the past 24 months?

 

Hey Ricky,
Great astute questions!! Unfortunately I doubt you will get any reasonable intelligent answers. The more I read, the more I see that some have their own agenda and are belligerent in trying to get others to join their brigade.

I think there are a few people who miss the point of having tangible assets that you could both enjoy and appreciate and use for diversifying your wealth.

When you buy well and have a long time horizon, you don't sweat the small stuff. You use any correction to buy more. One more thing, I don't think anyone should be buying a Ferrari or Lamborghini if they are using their last nickel to pay for the deposit while financing the rest.

 

Apparently there are a few people here that might live that way and maybe that's why they are so scared that the sky is falling��

 

That's exactly my point. I don't understand why they come on here time an again on a forum with knowledgable owners trying to sell their snake oil. Maybe they think they won't be called out. It is only so long that members here will listen their posts
until we get tired of their negativity. It's a matter of what you can and can't afford. If you can't afford one and missed the boat, lick your wounds, let it go and move on.

 

EVERYBODY has their own agenda. EVERYBODY who watches the exotic/classic car market has an opinion on pricing.

No different than the stock market, Some will think a particular stock will rise, others are equally convinced it will fall.

 

right but usually people who have strong opinions on an asset class are heavily invested in it...not just spectators.

I don't own any art, so I don't comment on it and if I did have an opinion it shld be written to zero.

 

Sometimes not though. Even in the art world, I imagine there are a good number of experts who have great knowledge but not the capital to invest.

 

so essentially ur saying by being "smart" and having no skin in the game ur able to call the top because of one metric: price appreciation? no other thoughts/comments on interest rates, fx, asset flows, impact of QE, geopolitical factors, inflation/deflation, housing, credit?

that's a rather aggressive one factor model ur using to make conclusions. intriguing in its simplicity.

if ur going to have an opinion on a market I think it wld be helpful to have some experience actually transacting, finding, bidding, closing, paying taxes on a ferrari.

 

If you own a TR, you own art. I can't blame anyone for paying the prices if they can afford it. I simply think anyone wanting a TR should want it for the driving enjoyment first and the financial aspects second. Considering the mileage on those posted on the Ebay ads, I would say that sat around more than being driven. Sad to think people got more joy from looking at it then driving it.

 

That's what we call a lack of supply in a seller's market.

 

+1


Shamile

Freeze....Miami Vice!

 

So you didn't have the foresight to see the biggest asset bubble in the history of our country..and you got burnt. Now we should take your advise on this asset?? Give me a break.

 

I think it will be interesting to see where Testarossa prices settle to over the next few years. The old price point ($40-60k) was clearly a bargain for the car and I think no one was terribly surprised to see the run up in pricing that has justifiably occurred recently. Quite simply, nothing else in that price point offered a similar experience.

Once you get above $125k though, the market gets a bit more crowded in terms of driving fun that you can have for that kind of cash so it doesn't surprise me that testarossa sales slow down a bit around that price point.

I will say that anyone in it for the "long haul" will likely do well with the car. Not only do you get an amazing machine to enjoy, it seems unlikely that the car will notably depreciate over 10+ years.

 

Spot on.