488 - UK Depreciation 2-3 years | FerrariChat

488 UK Depreciation 2-3 years

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by Masterplan, Mar 3, 2024.

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  1. Masterplan

    Masterplan Rookie

    Mar 3, 2024
    6
    Hi everyone

    I’m in the market for a 488 spider.

    What’s everyone’s view on 488 depreciation in the UK over the next 2-3 years?

    I was flirting between a Huracan Evo and a 488 Spider, but having now driven them both, the 488 spider is the car for me.

    What I’m trying to determine and model, is what I can expect depreciation wise over the next 2-3 years. I’m used to rolling deposits from one car into the next, underpinned by low depreciation and low interest rates. This combo has made paying down the car more achievable, meaning at year 2 I can typically take a sizeable chunk, if not all, of my deposit back out and move into a new car.

    With Ferrari finance being around 10.9% APR on a Lease Purchase w/ Balloon agreement, I’m trying to model out what % of my deposit I can expect to lose after 2 years, so I can provision for the next car.

    I feel the huracan Evo will take a larger reduction over the same time period, but it’s based on feel rather than anything scientific. Would love to know everyone else’s thoughts on the 488, and if there’s a way to estimate it out. Thankfully my mathematical ability is not what pays for these lovely cars
     
  2. mkraft3003

    mkraft3003 Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Aug 20, 2016
    2,355
    Tampa, Fl
    I’d see if Harrods has a good crystal ball for sale. Pure speculation but I’d expect both models to depreciate significantly, especially based on what the UK market has done in the last few years.
     
  3. Masterplan

    Masterplan Rookie

    Mar 3, 2024
    6
    I agree it’s all crystal ball stuff. My concern is more around making the right choices consciously, rather than being lucky or unlucky.

    There’s definitely a bit of buyers nerves creeping in, but it’s less about affordability and more about having realistic expectations.
     
  4. mkraft3003

    mkraft3003 Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Aug 20, 2016
    2,355
    Tampa, Fl
    Life is way too short. Buy what car excites you the most as this is the most important decision in this class of cars.

    If you are worried about losing money you may be stretching yourself and may want to look at something else. The realistic expectation is that cars are depreciating assists. Both are going to lose value and neither of them make sense from a financial perspective.
     
    rob5819, RoadRonin, rw99 and 2 others like this.
  5. LVP488

    LVP488 F1 Veteran

    Jan 21, 2017
    5,653
    France
    Financing from Ferrari is probably not the best idea - there should be better rates available.
    Apart from that, the 488 has already been severely hit, so the good news is that a 296 (for instance) will probably depreciate a lot more than a 488 starting from now (even though the UK is in a specific situation currently, apparently).
     
    05F430F1 likes this.
  6. 05F430F1

    05F430F1 F1 Rookie
    BANNED

    Oct 22, 2005
    3,600
    Fort Lauderdale, Florida
    Full Name:
    Todd
    Agree with LVP— 488 got hit pretty hard with the F8 release and over the past 3 years but I think it’s already near its ‘bottom’. I’d say 488’s will still be selling within 10-20k of where they’re at now in a few years… don’t sweat it; buy it.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  7. mike32

    mike32 F1 Veteran

    May 13, 2016
    5,905
    Isle of man- uk
    Buy a good low miles 458 spider, a far better buy. Last of the non turbos and will not lose as much
     
    willcrook, rob5819 and Mickeyblueeyes like this.
  8. mkraft3003

    mkraft3003 Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Aug 20, 2016
    2,355
    Tampa, Fl
    #8 mkraft3003, Mar 3, 2024
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2024
    just to clarify He is asking about the UK. Entirely different market and cars that are currently over msrp in the US are below in the UK.

    Todd, to give you an example a similar car to yours is below. (The price would be 270k US)
    https://www.cargurus.co.uk/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?zip=E40aa&inventorySearchWidgetType=AUTO&sortDir=ASC&sourceContext=untrackedExternal_false_0&distance=100&sortType=DEAL_SCORE&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d5963#listing=152497237/NONE/DEFAULT
     
  9. 05F430F1

    05F430F1 F1 Rookie
    BANNED

    Oct 22, 2005
    3,600
    Fort Lauderdale, Florida
    Full Name:
    Todd
    Yes I’m aware of the price differences but it’s still the same level and reason for depreciation, just different amounts. But I understand.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  10. Masterplan

    Masterplan Rookie

    Mar 3, 2024
    6
    Ferrari are forecasting about 40% depreciation over 4 years, from what I can work out.

    Maybe I just need to accept that this is a heart buy rather than a head buy, and that I’ll just write off my deposit and just enjoy it.

    Usually I feel better informed on these decisions, typically driven by Guaranteed Future Values by the lender. In this case, I don’t have that figure due to it being a different finance product and it’s making my feel uneasy.
     
  11. Given the UK market recently, in 2-3 years, dealers might be giving you money to take a 488 of their hands.
     
  12. Masterplan

    Masterplan Rookie

    Mar 3, 2024
    6
    Really think it’ll be that bad?
     
  13. No, it was a joke.

    Point is, no one really knows.

    2-3 years ago, as the world was exiting Covid, no one could have predicted that the UK market would essentially be in a nosedive without a parachute.

    So anyone here who is going to tell you what a 488 will sell for 2-3 years from today is basically just spitting into the air.
     
    Masterplan and mkraft3003 like this.
  14. Masterplan

    Masterplan Rookie

    Mar 3, 2024
    6
    Very true I suppose, even though it’s not what I want to hear!
     
  15. mike32

    mike32 F1 Veteran

    May 13, 2016
    5,905
    Isle of man- uk
    Given an oil leak on the rocker box cover needs the engine to come out at 35 hours labour or a turbo costs mega money, they are a car i would avoid.
     
  16. Masterplan

    Masterplan Rookie

    Mar 3, 2024
    6
    Both should be covered under warranty though I would assume? Certainly the turbos are.
     
  17. mike32

    mike32 F1 Veteran

    May 13, 2016
    5,905
    Isle of man- uk
    Rocker covers are but £8000 plus after warranty runs out to change 2 joints worth £15 is crackers. The 430 can be done in situ but the 488 has the top cam bearing as part of the cover, hence you have to remove engine and lock in position so you can remove covers, plain daft design for a road car.
     

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