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Discussion in 'AviatorChat.com' started by Juan-Manuel Fantango, Jan 27, 2020.
Sounds like powered flight into terrain to me.
Yup, unfortunately. A sucker hole that did not work out.
Agree. The next theory will be how aliens showed up in the fog, stopped time to get Kobe’s autograph and crashed the aircraft to avoid detection.
I guess the preliminary NTSB report must have been done by complete idiots since they didn’t include aliens.
I wonder why the most likely answer is the hardest for people to accept.
The NTSB report specifically did not include a cause for the crash. With regards to the engines, what it said was that there was no "catastrophic" internal damage.
I still do not believe that the pilot was disoriented. He could have been panicked. He could have come up with a really bad "Plan B". But to deliberately do a 180, and try and get under the ceiling instead of getting above it, without notifying the tower of his change in plans is odd to say the least.
and they never do in their preliminary (less than 30 days) report. They will specifically state actual or probable causes in the final report, likely late 2020 or early 2021.
Regarding the engines:
There is no mention of tip curl in the No. 1 engine.
Also, in the last transmission heard, the pilot told the tower he was climbing to 4,000'. This was received @ 9:45. The same minute the ship went into a steep dive and crashed.
I think the preliminary NTSB report stated both engines were turning at impact, something along those lines. I could have misread that.
They only said that about the No. 2 engine.
No they did not. They made no mention of the No 1 engine, and you are only making presumptions based on your stated bias that there was a possible mechanical failure. Do not draw conclusions regarding no mention of No 1.
You are creating a straw man. I have no bias, I made no presumption, I draw no conclusion. I merely put forth a theory based on the facts.
However, the NTSB report did not state that "both engines were turning at impact".
The official and final NTSB report won't be out for many months
No, but they did say that evidence was that the main and tai rotors were both powered at impact. Most likely, they couldn't find enough pieces of the other engine to verify whether it was running or not. However, there is NO reason to believe that it wasn't running.
I'm sure one engine is enough to power the rotors. The reason to believe the other engine might not have been running is the sudden loss of altitude. The report said that they did find both engines and that there was "no evidence of an uncontained or catastrophic internal failure". I posted a link in #156, at least take the time to read it.
I think, given that you express such strong opinions, you should tell us your aviation credentials. I'm an ATP and CFI, with a commercial rotorcraft-helicopter rating (although admittedly not a lot of helicopter time). You?
This gets me thinking that if the witness could see the ship from 50', the pilot surely could have seen the mountain before that, and taken evasive maneuvers.
I'm happy to be just a dumb ol' guy watching what's going on. Ain't got no credentials.
But you have more aviation experience than the rest of us put together! I read your book...
Thanks but I'm nothing but a chaser and dabbler. My credential; PPL 516086
Every pilot that I have spoken to, and there are three Navy helo pilots that I have spoken to separately, have all said the same thing to me. They said vertigo, disorientation, and that the pilot was looking for a hole in the fog to put her down and ran into the mountain.
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Being rationale and talking to experts does not seem to have an affect on someone who keeps coming up with alternative theories that run counter to the most likely cause.
The accident resulted in a tragic loss of life. At this point....there is little reason to suspect the aircraft.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion of course.
So you think the NTSB should just close the case now ? No need for further investigation ? That seems to be your position.
I'd say it comes far closer to your opinion than his.
Me, I'm sticking to the unicorn theory.
I believe the English language speaks for itself: At this point....there is little reason to suspect the aircraft.
The NTSB has a job to do which is to look at all aspects of the accident. That means the pilot, aircraft and flying conditions. Additionally, they formulate recommendations that relate to the accident if it was deemed preventable. That may mean mandatory refits of technology such as black box recording devices, better terrain warning systems and updated guidance to the air traffic controllers involved in this accident.
Human beings love to blame others or things for their mistakes. If it wasn't the aircraft then blame ATC for not telling him "you are flying too low". You can blame his company for not installing better flight management systems and the list goes on. In the end there is only one guy that made the decisions that doomed that aircraft and all the souls onboard.
But if you would like to continue to second guess the obvious....feel free to do so.