Tesla Model 3 - Make or Break ?? | Page 16 | FerrariChat

Tesla Model 3 - Make or Break ??

Discussion in 'General Automotive Discussion' started by F2003-GA, Feb 4, 2018.

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  1. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

    Nov 8, 2010
    834
    Cherry Hill, NJ
    Man, I wish I could get someone to pay me to pull numbers out of my ass and make up nonsense like these guys.
     
  2. nicholasn

    nicholasn Formula 3

    Nov 7, 2013
    2,232
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    Nicholas
    What a complete circus Tesla has turned into. If you're making your production team pull all-nighters and set up tents as a last resort to hit your production goals, you've got a problem. Never mind its recurring problem that it simply cannot make money. If Tesla is not bought up by another company (maybe Toyota?) it is going to crash and burn, and that day is creeping closer and closer.
     
  3. NEP

    NEP F1 Rookie

    Jul 19, 2010
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    Tesla’s Phony Quarterly Numbers

    August 06, 2018


    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported its Q2 numbers this past Wednesday. It reported $4 billion in revenue, up 43.4% year over year. Its net loss widened to $742 million, or $4.22 per share (some of you may have seen lower net loss and loss per share numbers but the numbers I’m using come directly from the SEC-filed 8-K, which means those are the “official” numbers).

    The market was excited and the stock soared because the cash “burn” was lower than expected and Elon Musk reassured everyone that the Company is still on track to show positive net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4. I can assure you that you have a better chance of standing on the eastern shoreline of Egypt and seeing the Red Sea part for Moses.

    The cash balance of $2.23 billion that is presented on TSLA’s balance sheet was higher than expected – with an alleged implication that TSLA burned less cash than expected. But this was accounting sleight of hand. TSLA achieved this feat by stiffing its suppliers as evidenced by the ballooning of the accounts payable entry on the balance sheet. From Q4 2017 to Q1 2018, TSLA’s accounts payable rose $213 million, or 8.2%, to $2.603 billion. But from Q1 to Q2 this year, TSLA’s payables rose $427 million, or 16.4%.

    In other words, TSLA slowed down the rate at which is pays suppliers by a considerable amount, which enables TSLA to hold the cash it owes to suppliers on its balance sheet, thereby giving the appearance of a higher cash balance.

    Netting out customer deposits of $942 million, TSLA actually only has $1.29 billion in cash. That said, there are some other balance sheet items on the liability side of the balance sheet that increased and will require the use of cash, like “other long term liabilities,” that I won’t be able to analyze until the 10-Q is filed, which is when I can study the footnotes. Furthermore, the 8-K does not contain a full statement of cash flows – it’s missing the details of the “cash from operations” – which will enable me to determine other areas on its balance sheet TSLA stretched in order keep cash net of deposits above $1 billion.

    All of that said, I have discovered a clever manner in which TSLA has rigged its financials to look better than they should by keeping cash expenditures it will have to incur off the income statement and balance sheet in Q2. To my knowledge, I am the only analyst who has figured out this devious form of accounting manipulation.



    https://www.investing.com/analysis/teslas-phony-quarterly-numbers-200336545
     
  4. F1tommy

    F1tommy F1 World Champ
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    Tom Tanner
    My original prediction was they would be in liquidation or bought by a sucker by 2021-2022. I think it will be sooner now.
     
  5. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

    Nov 8, 2010
    834
    Cherry Hill, NJ
    Am I missing something here? As production rate increases you're going to be ordering more parts, so even if you are still paying suppliers at the same 30 days or 60 or whatever, your accounts payable is going to go up.

    Now that Tesla is actually making a substantial number of 3s and the quality has improved this seems like an 'analyst' is grasping at straws.
     
  6. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Nov 2, 2003
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    Bro
    There is no sucker that will buy them for even one tenth of current stock value IMO
    But their ramp up of production will narrow losses and cash burn hence the market
    will remain confident til the end of 2019. By then other manufacturers would have profitable
    EV's on the market while Tesla is making ones that are losing money. That will be the day
    of reckoning IMO
     
  7. NEP

    NEP F1 Rookie

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  8. F2003-GA

    F2003-GA F1 World Champ
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    Exactly why is stock is do dangerous to short. All he does is tweet and it goes up. He has a cult like following
     
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  9. F1tommy

    F1tommy F1 World Champ
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    Dec 15, 2007
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    Well a fool and their money are soon parted. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and whoever else he suckered into this will be crying losses in a few years. The other annoying stock holders were beginning to bother Musk so he had to go private :).

    He did hold out a chance for true believers to still invest if they so desire in the private company... Run for your lives!!!
     
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  10. NEP

    NEP F1 Rookie

    Jul 19, 2010
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    Elon Musk’s Flawed Plan for Tesla Shareholders

    Tesla chief’s proposal to take the electric-car maker private amounts to a slap in the face for shareholders

    Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk proposed in a tweet on Tuesday to take the company private.

    August. 9, 2018

    The stock market has been kind to Elon Musk, who has used and abused Wall Street in return. His latest piece of showmanship—an offer to take electric-car maker Tesla Inc. TSLA -2.43% private—amounts to a slap in the face for shareholders. Worse, Mr. Musk’s reasoning for abandoning Tesla’s listing is flawed at almost every level. The saving grace is that if the deal goes ahead, shareholders can bail out by accepting Mr. Musk’s offer at a premium of 23% above Monday’s undisturbed price.

    The basic argument is increasingly deployed by frustrated executives and self-promoting private-equity groups: Companies are doing dumb things to meet the market’s quarterly expectations, and hurting their long-term prospects as a result. Take the company private and executives no longer have to care about the short term, allowing them to invest for the long run and help the company, their loyal shareholders and wider society.

    The trouble is that none of this applies to Tesla.

    It is hard to think of a company that cares less about sucking up to Wall Street than Tesla. Mr. Musk earlier this year rejected “boring bonehead questions” from analysts on his quarterly earnings call; the company offers no guidance on quarterly earnings; and it has frequently and unapologetically reported losses far worse than expected (only twice has it made a quarterly profit, both times a surprise).

    Tesla is also part of a select group of listed companies whose shareholders are strongly supportive of long-term investment. Tesla shares have jumped from an initial public offering price of $17 in 2010 to $370 on Wednesday, even as Mr. Musk invested or lost billions of dollars of the company’s money, repeatedly sold new stock and diluted investors by paying staff partly in shares. Short-term thinking isn’t compatible with being a Tesla stockholder. Indeed, it is hard to imagine many private-equity or venture-capital groups would have stuck with Tesla for eight years as it burned through so much cash.

    Short-termist pressure on management can come through three routes: board members worried about the share price, proxy votes by activists or unwanted bids. Yet, the board appears to be entirely made up of Musk fans, to such an extent that they called him only “Elon” in a statement on Wednesday confirming the take-private proposal. Activists have paid no attention to Tesla, partly because its shareholders are so supportive but also because any switch in strategy would involve ejecting Mr. Musk and surely crush the stock. The idea of a hostile bid for Tesla is fantastical, too: Its market value of $65 billion is higher than Ford Motor Co. or BMW AG . In short, the only constraint Mr. Musk faces is finding enough cash to keep the business going, and the supposedly short-termist markets have been falling over themselves to help out.

    Mr. Musk makes three other claims in his email to staff about the take-private idea, one misleading, one unlikely and one downright daft.

    The misleading suggestion is that what he calls “wild swings” in the stock price distract staff, who are shareholders. Going private would change this only by hiding the volatility: Instead of being able to buy or sell every day, they could do so only twice a year. The true value of the company would still swing around wildly, but no one would know. Perhaps the Tesla production line is so far behind schedule because workers spend their time day-trading the stock and gossiping about the latest price moves, in which case going private would solve the problem. But it is hard to believe.

    The unlikely idea is that short sellers are damaging the business. Mr. Musk said Tesla is the most-shorted company in history, and everyone betting on a share price fall has an incentive to attack it.

    Short sellers spreading false rumors or actively trying to find and publicize problems with the cars could in principle damage the business. But Tesla’s big problems haven't been secret, with highly public manufacturing difficulties, poor production quality and a constant need for new cash. Mr. Musk hasn’t helped, either, posting an April fools joke on Twitter that the company was bankrupt.

    The daft idea was his suggestion that Tesla go private with the same shareholders as today. Right now, shareholders can sell whenever they want and, to Mr. Musk’s chagrin, lend shares to short sellers for a fee. Restricting the option to sell to twice a year might be good for Mr. Musk’s war on shorts, but it should make the stock much less appealing to current shareholders. Selling in Mr. Musk’s offer looks more attractive still.

    There is one possible reason for going private that might make sense, but that Mr. Musk can’t mention. The private markets are awash in cash, allowing startups such as Uber Technologies Inc., Airbnb Inc. and Mr. Musk’s own SpaceX to stay private far longer than in the past by raising large amounts of money at high valuations.

    Tesla isn’t the right sort of company to appeal to ordinary private-equity groups, which prefer steady profits and economically insensitive industries to which they can add lots of leverage. But the unicorns of Silicon Valley have proved attractive to sovereign-wealth funds and a handful of big private funds that search for growth.

    The trouble is, Mr. Musk’s charms may not work the same magic on them as on the public markets.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-flawed-plan-for-tesla-shareholders-1533807186
     
  11. NEP

    NEP F1 Rookie

    Jul 19, 2010
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    Tesla Model 3 Production Is 30% Below Guidance

    08/27/2018


    When reporting last night how Elon Musk may have sabotaged his own Tesla "going private" transaction (by leaking details of Saudi involvement which promptly scuttled any further interest from the country's notoriously shy sovereign wealth fund), we noted that a bigger problem for Tesla than even the legal challenges faced by Musk including an SEC probe and a growing number of shareholder lawsuits, is that the announcement to end the MBO raised even more questions open about where he and the electric-car maker go from here.

    After all leaving ownership as is puts the scrutiny back on Musk’s "all-consuming work style, the company’s tricky cash position, its ability to meet mass-market production goals, and the independence and oversight of Tesla’s board."

    But most of all, what's going on with Model 3 production.

    In terms of next steps, the next measure of how (if) Tesla bounces back will come in early October, when the company reports third-quarter production and deliveries: as a reminder, Tesla guided that it expects to produce 6,000 Model 3s per week by late August.

    And, as we said last night, this may be a major problem and potentially the reason behind the entire "going private" soap opera, because as some independent observers have noticed, there suddenly appears to be a "significant production problem at Fremont", perhaps the true catalyst behind Musk's catastrophic approach to disclosing his going private intentions.

    In other words, countless distractions aside, investor attention is once again glued on just one thing: how many Model 3s can Tesla produce, and tied to that, whether user demand for the car is still rising or falling.

    Now, according to Electrek - a website many describe as "market testing" and leaking "soft PR" for Tesla - things are not going quite as planned: specifically, while overall output is rising once again, "the company is behind on its Model 3 production goal."

    A "reliable source" told Electrek that Tesla produced just over 47,000 vehicles throughout the third quarter as of last week.

    At the current rate, Tesla will end the quarter with over 70,000 vehicles produced. In comparison, Tesla produced 53,339 vehicles during the last quarter, which was also a new record for the company. The automaker is on track to achieve the same level this week with still a whole month left in the quarter.

    And while Model 3 production is responsible for the impressive increase and the automaker has already produced more Model 3’s in the last two months than during the entire previous quarter, "it is still behind its goal" and according to the same source, Tesla produced just under 30,000 Model 3 vehicles so far during the quarter.

    It means that Tesla is on pace to end up just below the lower end of its goal to produce between 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles in the third quarter.

    The problem: following an output burst at the end of the second quarter, which required the use of a tent in which to produce new Model 3s, "the company hasn’t been able to go back to a production of 5,000 units in a single week." Electrek adds:

    During the current quarter, Model 3 production is still very volatile and it has been limited to about 3,500 to ~4,900 per week based on a 7 day moving total. It could still achieve its production goal if it starts trending higher next month.

    Putting this number in context, Musk has been aiming for 6,000 units per week by the end of August - i.e. right now - and that would mean a more than 30% jump in production week over week to be achieved by the end of this week.

    Commenting on this delta, even Electrek's editor-in-chief is skeptical:

    "I find it to be unlikely, but Tesla has achieved more difficult things in the past."

    And from production follow profitability (or lack thereof): Tesla is attempting to be profitable during the quarter which it can only achieve depending on Model 3 production, "which needs to increase in terms of quantity and achieve a higher gross margin."

    While Model 3 output is clearly below guidance, what is unclear is whether this is due to ongoing production bottlenecks which, at least in theory, can be resolved: after all nothing prevents Musk from erecting another tent. The far greater risk to the bull case is if after all the drama, the company is merely responding to a collapse in Model 3 demand. There is nothing Musk can do if the Tesla "magic" has finally died.



    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-27/tesla-model-3-production-30-below-guidance
     
  12. Topazy

    Topazy Rookie

    Jan 29, 2018
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    Topari Clavin
    January 2019 is the target (aspirational) date for STARTING messager to build standard range (SR) Model 3’s. There are thousands of reservation holders, like you, who want those lower priced options. Many of them have been waiting since April 2016. I can appreciate your concern.

    It can be quite frustrating not having definitive information. Sometimes, that can be perceived as deception or even outright dishonesty. However, the manufacturing process is dynamic and evolving. By that I mean they have short term goals that have to be reached before they can move on. While the demand is high Tesla wants to maximize its income. Over time, just like with Model S & X all options will be available to order with a 4-6 week delivery schedule.
     
  13. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    14,244
    Well a lot of Tesla executives are leaving so that can't be good...
     
  14. Jason Crandall

    Jason Crandall F1 Veteran

    Mar 25, 2004
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  15. JAM1

    JAM1 F1 Veteran
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    Oct 22, 2004
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    I'm sorry if this offends anyone on here that owns one, but this thing is absolutely hideous and even worse in person. This is our generation's AMC Gremlin.
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  16. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
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    Tesla already had crap interiors, but the Model 3 takes it to a whole new level. Talk about basic and unimaginative.
     
  17. MalcQV

    MalcQV F1 Rookie

    Oct 11, 2004
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    Malc Holden
    That was my biggest gripe way back when looking online about leaving a deposit/holding fee. The wood grain effect (think that was it was) and iPad plonked centrally and nothing else just looked ****. The front also looks odd, they should have painted a grill or something there! Anyway I'm not sure we will see a Model 3 in the UK this decade.
    I've bought myself a Mercedes CLA instead.
     
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  18. jkddad

    jkddad Formula 3
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    Apr 26, 2006
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    I was thinking the Tesla Aztec would be appropriate. These cars are so ugly and boring looking, that people must be putting their senses on mute when ordering one. I throw up a little in my mouth every time I see one.
     
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  19. tbakowsky

    tbakowsky F1 World Champ
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    Sep 18, 2002
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    I wonder if there is a business opportunity for a shop to redesign the interior of these cars, and make them nice. Might be expensive and add weight..but geez, I'll bet quite a few would do it.. just redoing the dash, taking some design ideas from audi and Benz, would make a world of difference.
     
  20. NEP

    NEP F1 Rookie

    Jul 19, 2010
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    CARB Applauds Tesla Model 3 Sales Surge. Bob Lutz Predicts Tesla’s Demise Within Two Years.

    September 20th, 2018 by Steve Hanley

    While I was sitting in the cafeteria at CleanTechnica headquarters this morning, noshing on a barramundi and avocado omelet, head honcho Zachary Shahan sauntered over to tell me that sales of the BMW 3 Series have collapsed in the United States. I think I detected a hint of a smirk on his face as he told me sales of the Tesla Model 3 were exploding at the same time 3 Series sales were imploding.

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    Apparently, Zachary is on to something, as Mary Nichols, chair of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) took to Twitter on September 19 to celebrate the news. Included in her tweet was a most informative graphic entitled “Igniting A Movement” that helps illustrate exactly what is going on in the electric car revolution in her state and across the country.

    Nobody Wants To Buy Electric Cars!
    One can only imagine the pall hanging over boardrooms of auto manufacturers throughout the world this morning. Harald Krüger, CEO of BMW, must be particularly upset to know the car that generates a big chunk of his company’s annual profits is in a sales swoon thanks to an upstart company that didn’t even start manufacturing automobiles until 2012.

    You hear it all the time from auto executives and stooges inside the Trump maladministration: “Nobody wants to buy electric cars!” Oh, yeah? Then why are so many people driving by BMW dealers on their way to the Tesla store? If ignorance in bliss, these must be some of the happiest people on the face of the Earth.

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    Even used Teslas are selling like spiffs at a Joe Rogan event. According to Teslarati, the Tesla Model S is the fastest selling electric car in the used car market and the second fastest selling used car of all, behind only the Toyota Prius C. That information comes from an analysis by iSeeCars, whose CEO, Phong Ly, says the fact that a customer can buy a used Model S today and not have to wait for a new one to be built and delivered is a big factor in people’s decision to buy used.

    “The Model S is currently the only all-electric luxury car available, and its demand outstrips supply leading to scarcity in the used-car marketplace. Those who purchase a new model have to wait at least a month for delivery while there is no wait time for a used version,” Ly says. Technically, we’ve heard of people getting their new Tesla in under a month, but we won’t file this piece in the Pravduh file just for that.

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    The Contrarian View
    Bob Lutz, the former GM exec who always seems to be auditioning for a leading role in the next Grumpy Old Men movie, was up to his usual tricks this week, telling CNBC this week that Tesla “is headed for the graveyard. They will never make money on the Model 3 because the cost is way too high. (You may recall that he said the same thing about the Model X, after he gave up on saying the Model X couldn’t be produced at all*.)



    “He’s got 9,000 people in that assembly plant producing less than 150,000 cars a year. The whole thing just doesn’t compute. The jaws are tightening and I think in another year or two we’ll see a movie called ‘Who Killed Tesla,’ a conspiracy movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio,” Lutz said.

    Lutz is far from alone in dissing Tesla. One Twitter user who calls himself Jimney Credit posted this bit of bile to Mary Nichols’ tweet: “Enabling $TSLA shill @MaryNicholsCA irresponsibly calls the glut of undelivered @tesla Model 3 product ‘a surge hitting the road,’ rather than admitting that her green energy savior has hoodwinked an entire movement’s followers with salesmanship and cult-style wizardry.” Jimney Credit prides himself in the fact that he is an “Ex-NYSE wire clerk,” according to his Twitter profile.

    So there you have it. Either Tesla is “Igniting A Movement” or is about to collapse under the weight of Elon’s hype. Who would you rather believe, the head of CARB or an ex-NYSE file clerk? Seems like an easy choice to make.

    * Here are a few useful points of Tesla analysis from Bob Lutz:

    • “Elon, God bless him, hasn’t delivered a thing.” [2016]
    • “The Model X appears to be unbuildable with those automatic gull-wing doors, which everyone in the industry always said were not going to work.” [2016]
    • “I just don’t see anything about Tesla that gives me any confidence that that business can survive.” [2016]
    • Elon Musk “hasn’t figured out the revenues have to be greater than costs.” [2018]
    • “Tesla supporters are like members of a religious cult.” [2016]

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/20/carb-applauds-tesla-model-3-sales-surge-bob-lutz-predicts-teslas-demise-within-two-years/
     
  21. NEP

    NEP F1 Rookie

    Jul 19, 2010
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    Can Tesla Inc. Meet Its Aggressive Model 3 Delivery Target?
    The quarter ends in less than a week. Is Tesla up to the task?


    Sep 25, 2018 at 9:36PM


    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been under the spotlight lately. A drawn-out period of negative press has included CEO Elon Musk's short-lived consideration of taking the company private, a few controversial tweets from Musk, and some high-profile executive turnover. But the electric-car maker is about to get a chance to put a positive twist on the narrative surrounding the company.

    On Sunday, Tesla's all-important third quarter will come to a close. This will not only mark the end of a period in which Tesla expects to deliver a record number of Model 3s, but also achieve profitability while it's at it. However, after Tesla fell about six months behind its initial Model 3 production timeline, it's easy to doubt the automaker's ability to hit the big target for Model 3 deliveries that management set for itself for the quarter.

    The pressure is on, to say the least.

    Can Tesla deliver?
    In Tesla's second-quarter shareholder letter, management said it expected to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles during Q3, with deliveries exceeding this level. In other words, Tesla forecast about 55,000 or more Model 3 deliveries during the quarter.

    Though the guidance came after a quarter in which Tesla delivered just 18,449 Model 3s, Tesla said in its Aug. 1 shareholder letter that it wrapped up the quarter with a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 cars per week. In addition, management even said it achieved this weekly production rate multiple times during the first month of July, which is the first month of Q3.

    But as Tesla's third quarter nears its end, Tesla is running into some major issues when it comes to getting new Model 3 vehicles to customers. An unprecedented level of deliveries for the company has management facing new logistics challenges.

    The first issue to come to light was a reference from CEO Elon Musk in a Sept. 21 tweet, citing an "incredibly intense" week for Model 3 deliveries. In the tweet, Musk invited Tesla owners to help educate new customers about their new Model 3s. "If any current Tesla owners who'd like to help educate new owners could head to Tesla delivery centers during midday on Sat/Sun & morning/evening on weekdays," Musk tweeted, "that would be super appreciated!" Based on media coverage and social media coverage of what followed, the response from owners was overwhelmingly positive.

    But even this didn't solve all of Tesla's logistic issues with deliveries. In a Sept. 24 tweet, Musk said the company was "running into an extreme shortage of car carrier trailers." To remedy the problem, Musk said the company was building its own car carriers over the weekend "to alleviate load."

    Expect sales to soar
    With Tesla apparently facing major logistics headwinds at the end of the quarter, it's tough to say whether or not the electric-car company can meet its aggressive guidance.

    Nevertheless, vehicle deliveries are set to soar. Even if Model 3 deliveries came in at 45,000 during the quarter, total vehicle sales when including Model S and Model X will likely be around 68,000 to 71,000 units -- crushing Tesla's previous quarterly record of nearly 41,000 units.

    Of course, the big question is whether or not Model 3 deliveries will be high enough for Tesla to achieve the scale it needs to become profitable.

    Stay tuned. Tesla typically shares quarterly updates on vehicle deliveries and production within three days of each quarter's end.



    https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/09/25/can-tesla-inc-meet-its-aggressive-model-3-delivery.aspx
     
  22. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    14,244
    Still not getting the comparison to BMW 3/4 series production. That gen of BMW came out in 2010/11 and is ending very soon with the new gen being debuted next month in Paris. Sales for mass produced cars always drop near the end of its production cycle and the newer gen gets a boost. Plus, BMW customers do switch from 3/4 to their SUVs so they have some switching buyers within the brand.
     

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