Sheehan nailed this market cycle!

Somewhere in the "Bubble" and "Art Market" threads, FChatters also nailed it, but didn't believe it at the time.

 

Interesting, thank you

 

Got his June post this morning. Another good read. Are we really sheep?

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Sheean predict that 308's and testarossa's would never go up in value... right before they doubled?

Didn't he also predict 10 -15 years ago that Dino's wouldn't go up, as they were FIATs?

I really think that there is an under-appreciation for cars from the 80's specifically... this generation always gets glossed over... We go straight from Baby Boomers to Millenials...

What ever happened to Genx? You know, the generation that got saddled with taking care of their kids and their parents. The generation that didnt catch the huge run up in the market, but caught it on the way down. The generation that is facing massive college bills for their kids?

Gen X is developmentally and financially stunted. Like the scraggly teen that doesn't sprout even though his class mates do, Gen X may sprout late.

Gen X really hasnt had the opportunity the kicj back and spend money on lavish issues. They were to busy losing their net worth in the housing crash... the stock crash... etc.

The big question is, once they get some money, does delayed gratification kick in?

If 308's go back to 30k... remind me to buy 1. Or two.

 

In his June email, he says he sold all in 2014, and paid 35 % tax. Part of his market timing was due to the impending increase in the top marginal tax rate to 39.6%. (Since he makes his living as a car dealer, his car sales profits are taxed as ordinary income, not capital gains).

The other part may be due to to his market insights.

 

Some of us Gen X's did ok .

But we didn't have the tailwind that the boomers had... I would love it if the market gave us, what it gave them, for 20 years...

In our prime spending years: Stocks crashed... twice. Real estate crashed... Health care costs and college soared. And we became our parents retirement back-up plans... Not to mention, for many, they are still housing their college kids...

 

A broken clock is right twice a day. He has been dead wrong more often then he is right, he was wrong about all the 365's, 512's, 308's etc - modern special edition cars. Also every time I have spoken to him he seems to have no clue about 80's and 90's cars. He also regurly grossly underpriced cars for his clients that sold instantly to dealers that knew the MKT. I personally called on 4-5 cars that I saw on his private email list and they had sold within minutes due to not knowing market.

He posted articles after results and from what I have seen has been wrong MUCH more then nailing it.

 

Most of this article is rearview mirror stuff. Hard to say he "nailed it" when all he's doing here is reporting facts. Is there a link to a prior Sheehan article that lays out his predictions?

Let me summarize: "What goes up must come down."

I are genius. :^)

 

Agree fully.

 

End of 2014? There has been a lot of cars that have gained in the 2015 market. I think the cycle is ending right about now.

 

Apart from the rare 7+ digit cars, the market has had it's day.

I.M.H.O. the classic car market experiencing Dr Jean-Paul Rodrigue's Bull trap It is explained on this link https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...f_a_bubble.png

 

I think Sheehan 'nailed it' in a recent related piece where he explored how the legion of buyers for Enzo era cars are now mostly retired and looking for "Senior Discounts" instead of expensive toys. The line that stuck was "Nobody wants to date their Dad's prom queen." Too true. Example, I'm 46 and I think a Daytona is neat but there's no way I want to own one...not when for half the money, I could buy a 16M...or for the same money (as a Daytona), a 599 GTO.

 

Sorry try this link https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stages_of_a_bubble.png

 

Market peaked and will never do it again in our lifetimes.

Some historic examples may exist at the Smithsonian

Just too big a change coming in the way we will be living out lives to even care about cars as we know them today.

Attendance figures / interest in automotive is way way down and falling every year

I see them as a work of art in the future proudly displayed next to the chachkees

 

Mike and his daughter were critical to the sale of my 550 Maranello this year. They got it right, plus are wonderful to work with.

 

Well, I'm 42 and don't care for the Daytona but there are plenty of other older cars I'd own (250SWB, 275gtb, alfa tz1, sz, various 50s,60s,70s racers, some pre-war racers too) if I could afford them. You are right that we tend to like cars that that came out when we were of impressionable age but there are special cars whose appeal holds through generations. The fact that various pre war cars continue to sell well into the seven (or eight) figures demonstrates that.

 

Just to add to the demographic discussion, I'm 49 (solidly Gen-X), own an Enzo-era car, and wouldn't mind owning another one if the circumstances were right.

 

So we are saying a testarossa will never be worth $150k again? Thats barely $50k above its price when new, 30 years ago.