Interesting discussion I had with my F car mechanic today. When I told him the prices that 250's and 330's are starting to fetch, he was VERY surprised. Couldn't believe they were getting so pricey. Said the 250's are slow, and the the 330's are a bear to work on and expensive to keep running. He's seen the rise and fall of prices before, and thought there was a good chance that the 250/330 run up was not going to hold as well as the more steady climb of other classics, the Dino included. Guess only time will tell. DM
I never stated that the muscle car market affected the Ferrari market. I only stated that their will be a greater demand for muscle cars in the future as baby boomers continue to buy the cars they wanted but couldn't afford in their youth. While more muscle cars were made, a much higher percentage have been allowed to disappear through salvage, modifications and lack of care than Ferraris and with a higher demand will command higher prices.
This is an interesting thread. I think a lot of you have no clue what drives prices. You all say "supply and demand" without looking into what this means. In a strong, stable economy, demand is low for collector cars. No matter how cool you think your Pontiac GTO or Boxer is, it's only cool to people who are carzy about them. A small if vocal crowd. Now throw in some serious inflation which we have not seen for many, many years. All of a sudden "demand" is not just insane car nuts, but a whole lot of players who want to turn cash money into something that will ride the wave of inflation as opposed to become worthless toilet paper. Ferraris and muscle cars fit that bill. They are few in number in an ever increasing population, and like old Tiffany glass and Morgan silver dollars, will do quite well in a double digit inflationary economy. Take a step back from your own little car universe and you will have a better idea about when your barely running, very neglected 308 will be a $75,000 car, while a nice one will fetch $150K. Far fetched? Just hope that Bush runs the record deficit even more and you'll see the governement ratchet up inflation. It's the only way they know to balance the books. And classic car owners (and any collector of art) will reap the benifits. Ken
Bubble,speculation, inflation, or whatever it's like the housing market, it's not as if you can take your gain in a classic car and buy another classic an still pocket the gain, unless you have another vintage car lined up immediately you will be chasing the market, especially if you want to wait for a year to find the perfect car. So why would you sell unless you have something lined up immediately and even thats a risk in a rapidly appreciating market unless it's in you garage right now or you want something new but what fun is that as well as having a depreciating car.
The Wall Street Journal of 12/14/04 has a story on how the number of millionaires in the USA (defined by WSJ as people with net worth over $5 million) is aproaching 2 million. Many more than a decade ago and rising rapidly. The story focused on the mega wealthy ordering yachts costing over $100 million, but the real analysis is that the number of people with the cash capability to pay several hundred thousand dollars for assets that at best have remained static in number, but are most likely diminishing in availability, is growing. Basic economic theory says that when demand (and more money in this instance) is pursuing diminishing supply, the value of the asset will rise. Even a hard line communist will understand this. Significant older cars like 275 GTB's. Lussos, Daytonas, 330's etc are being bought by long term holders simply because they have the cash available and most likely will have no need to sell the car anytime soon, removing it from the market and further driving up prices. This market is not speculative. It is simply a steady orderly reaction to a shifting supply / demand line.
Whatever happens with prices, I just want to say a great big thank you to all the guys on this thread who are nurturing their cars for all the right reasons. I just feel all warm and fuzzy whenever I get to see the old V12's (and I'm lucky there are a good collection in my local club) and am glad there are still people like you to keep them around. I get a bit sad reading some of the other forums in Fchat from people debating whether to get the 430 or Murcie or whatever just because they have the money to do so, and when I hear of 'flippers'. You are the keepers of the greatest heritage in motoring - I thank you.
One addition to your supply - demand calculus. You need to reduce the production numbers to projected survivors. Example: the Series II 330GT - there were 474 or 454 made depending upon you ask. Today at best, 300 survive in the world, a significant porportion of which are in the hands of folks who won't sell them at any price. The remaining portion seems regularly (2-3 years) on the market. So it is this second number, survivors available for sale, that actually makes true supply. As to demand, while this increased rairity adds nothing to their cachet, (see the Americas with only a handful of the 50 made, extant) when a good car (an even smaller portion of the survivors for sale) does enter the market, as anyone at an antique auction can attest, all it takes is two eager buyers to run the price out of the norm. I also believe the market for higher priced cars is far more rational. These guys have pros advising them, they often get far more value for their dollars when they buy the best because they understand the inherent costs burried in decades of deferred maintaince. The lower cost car marketis such because there is a lot of people buying cars between high end and the part out yards that initially believe you can own one these cars at moderate cost. That's why so many are flipped after a few years, all of which are edging towards unavoidable engine rebuild and thus for many, oblivion. In spite of this, I believe a better indicator of the car toy market sweet spot is the cars that were hot 40 years earlier. That is the date at which the current "boomer generation" was 15 and lusting for that era's hot cars that they saw in magazines and on the street. See American muscle cars today, restored model Ts and As 20 years ago, and the begining decline in interest for the Colombo engined Ferraris not otherwise owned by some dead actress. If true, the next sustained big thing is not Daytonas and 275s but the lowley 308s, new in 1975, these should be huge in 2115 when those '75 teenagers have their money and are chasing their now affordable dreams. Michael Bayer
Alex, I think that you are right on the money. Simply put, there are more real buyers today than there were 10 - 20 years ago. Does this mean that a vintage Ferrari is a good "investment?" Probably not. Unless you are in the business of buying and restoring, selling a vintage Ferrari is a zero sum game. Once you sell your car, whatcha gonna do? But should we expect a significant rise in prices over the next 5 years? I believe so because, again as you pointed out, the demand side is increasing. Dale
True, but the problem with the 3x8 cars is that they don't have the provenance behind them. What do you think of when someone mentions a Daytona? I always flash to Cannonball. What do you think of when someone mentions a 308? Yep, ____________ Don't misunderstand, I personally like the 3x8 cars and plan on buying one someday. But I do think that the next E-Ticket will be the Boxers, 288 GTOs, and the F-40s. After that, finally the long-suffering TR owners will once again be able to hold their head high! Dale
When you look at the rate of price increase going on today and who is buying these cars (at least according to SCML, Sheehan and other dealers who comment in magazines) its pretty obvious that this is not a speculative bubble. Back in the late 1980s I was selling lots of cars. Not any Ferraris... but lots of Jaguar XKE's, Austin Healeys, Triumphs, Alfas and other less expensive sportscars. The Jaguars had a speculative market going just like Ferraris did. During 1989 prices for a nice E-Type tripled and many buyers had the car shipped to a storge facility. They never even laid eyes on it, it was purely a speculative investment. The same thing was happening in the Ferrari world. Daytona prices between 1987 and 1990 went from around $100K to $500K with many cars being bought sight unseen and simply stored as investments. That is a sure bad sign! The muscle car market is very different. I think the price increase on some rare models such as a REAL 1970 Hemi Cuda with 4 speed and all the right options is not insane considering they only built a few hundred of these cars. But prices on more run of the mill 383 automatic Cuda's have also been rocketing up and thats nuts. A Yenko 427 Camaro is a very rare car. The $150K they trade for may not be nuts. But a Z28 automatic Camaro is really not rare and the Barrett Jackson buyers paying $100K for them are insane and buried in it. Also, the replica phenomenon is a BIG deal in the muscle car market. Building an exact, 100% correct, indistinguishable except by serial number replica of a car like a Lusso or Daytona is really just not possible. It would cost far more than you can just buy a real one for so there is no true replica market for the sub $500K Ferraris. But there is a massive market for replica Hemi Cudas. You can pick up a plain jane Cuda for next to nothing. Then you can order every little piece from the 426 Hemi engine, 4 speed, guages, seats, body panels, stickers.... EVERYTHING to relatively cheaply build an exact replica that only a serial numbers expert could determine is a fake. These sorts of replicas are bringing pretty big dollars themselves and thus lots are being built. To me... thats the rub. There is no scarcity of Cudas or Camaros or Mustangs. There are tens of thousands of them out there.... plenty of cars to meet any demand. Its only the high option spec special package cars that are rare and these will always command big dollars, but today we are seeing prices on the others rocket up at a rate much like what the Ferrari market saw in the late 1980s. When a regular old 350 SS Camaro in nice driver condition goes from being a $15K to being a $60K car in 2 years or so.... watch out! As Keith Martin of SCML has said about the muscle car boom... last man holding is OUT. Its musical cars in that speculative market, the dealers all know it and lots of regular customers are going to get burned at some point. Paying $50K for a Shelby GT350 clone is stupid and no amount of market hype is going to change that! Terry
I spent one year at an "exclusive" prep school...there was a guy a few years older who would drive his dad's brand-new 4HL 330 2+2 to school occasionally. Seeing and hearing that car and reading early to mid '60s Road & Track initially planted the Ferrari virus.
My observation from putting my site (www.ferrarinexus.com) together is that more than half of the cars for sale are in Europe. This is more than I would have expected. I don't have any data to prove that this is a change from the past, but...the weak dollar means that European buyers can buy cars here in the US and then sell them in Europe at a profit, assuming import duties aren't too bad. In a market that already has a thin inventory, adding even a small amount of demand can drive prices up quickly. This may be what has happened.
I remember as a kid seeing a 512 BB idling on the street outside of Chinetti's store in NY. I looked at it for so long one of the mechanics came out with a brochure. Still have the brochure, and will have a 512 too one day. I'd like a 57 FI vette too, and other cars, but ferraris are special to me. I was going to sell my 330 while waiting for a garage-now I think I'm keeping the 330 and building the garage-too hard to find a nice car, and the longer i own it and the more stuff I fix, the better I know the car and the better it works.
I am 43. In the early 1980's I lusted over the 308's. I remember going over to a dealer to look at them where 3 or 4 275 gtb's also were for sale. I could care less about them. I really wanted a 308. I bought a 1981 for 37.5k and had a great time with it. I then sold it in 4 years later for exactly what I had paid for it. I could have bought a 275gtb long nose at the same dealer for 45K....Love both models now.
Same here; I've thought idly of trading up but I know mine so well and sorted it all out, and where would I be if I sold it at a breakeven-plus price?--out of the Vintage market, making a lateral move into something already fully priced, or chasing a Daytona or GTC, either of which would require going into debt. It makes sense to hang onto a good lesser car unless you've got the bucks and can pay cash.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=36020&item=4343185700&rd=1&ssPageName=WDVW Bryan, Every time I see something like this ebay posting, it makes me think of another one of these neat cars either dead or dying a miserable death. john
