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Italy and Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Travel' started by Albert-LP, Feb 26, 2020.

  1. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
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    So, very unfortunately, in a way, and to keep a lighter tone, the old XVIth century proverb was true: "Inglese Italianato è un Diavolo Incarnato" (Roger Ascham)

    Hold on Alberto, we have a lunch/dinner to catch (that is: IF there would be any restaurant left...)

    Rgds
     
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  3. Steelton Keith

    Steelton Keith F1 Rookie
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    I am trying to book (scarce) flights to MXP in September. Now I read variants of COVID are roaring back in Lombardy. I send everyone my best wishes; let us hope this nightmare ends soon.
     
  4. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    10,797
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    Thanks for the wishes. Yes, new variants are roaring in France and Italy nowadays; mainly the "english" variant", but also the "Brasilian" and "South African" one; basically, it is now a race between vaccination and the spreading of the new variants, which are much more contagious.
    I think we will not have finished with the thing in its different variants before the end of the year...

    Rgds
     
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  5. Albert-LP

    Albert-LP F1 Veteran
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    Here the "English" variant is spreading very quickly with very high numbers (like in other Nations...), but it looks not (so) dangerous as the original, maybe because now we know how to treat it.

    It has now a much lower death rate (2-3%) than last year (it was close to 10%)

    Let's see, but we can't go on this way forever.

    ciao
     
  6. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
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    Well, I don't know, Alberto...

    According to a study published in the “British Medical Journal” two days ago, the U.K variant might actually be twice as deadly.

    (By the way: 30.303 new cases yesterday, Wednesday March 10th, 2021 in France; not looking good at all…)

    Rgds

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-uk-variant-up-to-twice-as-deadly-study-suggests/
    Covid-19 news: UK variant up to twice as deadly, study suggests
    Study indicates B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant identified in the UK is more deadly


    The B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant first identified in the UK is between 32 and 104 per cent more deadly than previous dominant variants, according to a study published in the BMJ.
    The study compared death rates among people in the UK infected with B.1.1.7 or other variants of the coronavirus. Earlier research has indicated the variant is also more transmissible. “The precise mechanisms responsible for increased mortality associated with the variant remain uncertain but could be related to higher levels of virus replication as well as increased transmissibility,” said Lawrence Young at the University of Warwick in a statement.
     
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  8. Albert-LP

    Albert-LP F1 Veteran
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    Here daily cases are growing (28000+ today) but not the death number, that is now at 1-1,5%. One year ago it was 8-10%

    ciao
     
  9. absostone

    absostone F1 Veteran
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    Is the 28000 number due to more tests? Or actually hospitalized?
     
  10. Albert-LP

    Albert-LP F1 Veteran
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    28000 new infected today, means in the last 24 hours: not 28000 new hospitalized.

    ciao
     
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  11. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    10,797
    FRANCE
    I hope you are right, Alberto...BUT having followed the statistics closely for quite sometime, the deaths start to rise usually four weeks after the contaminations. I hope I'm wrong, but...
    I understand Italy is now more or less locked-down again, if I have followed Mario Draghi correctly?
    Oh, and by the way: it is still going bad here. The government cannot accept that there is need for another lockdown, so basically it is now a race between the virus and the vaccine; my guess is that 2021 will be just as lost as 2020 was...

    Rgds
     
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  13. Albert-LP

    Albert-LP F1 Veteran
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    Hi Bruno, I think the 2021 will be even worse than 2020. I hope you aren't right, of course: let's see. Here we had several casualties after the Astra Zeneca vaccine assumption: at present it has been stopped in Piemonte region, they are evaluating causes. My wife got the first Astra Zeneca vaccine dose (she is a teacher, so she is at the top of the vaccine list schedule) and did not feel well for two days: several collegues had some problems with that, it's a bit "hard".

    We are (Modena area) in red zone (full lockdown, but factories still working) since 10 days

    ciao
     
  14. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
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    France and Italy are now in the same boat, Alberto...our main economic regions are locked-down in both countries:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/18/paris-enters-four-week-lockdown-as-france-faces-third-covid-wave

    Rgds
     
  15. Albert-LP

    Albert-LP F1 Veteran
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  16. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
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    35k + yesterday here (it's not a contest...) and as said already, deaths numbers usually grow with a three or four-weeks delay after the contaminations...April will be tough.
    Stay put and at home, friend...keep safe.

    Rgds
     
  17. Albert-LP

    Albert-LP F1 Veteran
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    I can't stay home and I have to meet customers on site and others colleagues for work. I think I should light a candle...

    ciao
     
  18. Jo Sta7

    Jo Sta7 F1 Rookie
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    I'm so so sorry your countries are still getting hit like this. The US seems to be doing quite well, all things considered. Hopefully the vaccines work and Europe can get out of this mess soon.

    Interestingly, hospitalization rates are down significantly all through the USA. Cases continue (albeit lower) but far fewer deaths. Is it common in Italy to go to the hospital if one is feeling sick? I had Covid about a month ago. I felt terrible for about 2 weeks (worse than I thought I would) but certainly I didn't think about going to the hospital.
     
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  19. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
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    Yes, the figures are very encouraging for the US, and your administration did a miracle of logistics with the vaccines (100 millions doses injected in 58 days...) but pray that people in the U.S do not start to relax too soon, and forget the safeyt precautions. What has upset everything in Italy and France are the variants (mainly the "british" on, but also the "South African" and "Brasilian") they are much more contagious and spread much faster. I've read that they have appeared already in the U.S, notably in Michigan.
    I'll let Alberto answer as far Italy is concerned, but as for France: most people who are ill with Covid do not go to hospital: they stay home.
    What is really monitored is the number of people in ICU: a bit more than 4.400 this morning; the actual capacity in ICU for the whole country before Covid was 5.000; in late April at the peak of the first wave, there were 7.900 people in ICU. The hospitals managed to do it, for a short period; but had they had to reschedule many other hospitalisations.
    Nowadays most persons working in hospitals are very, very tired. ICUs are not a peak capacity yet, but they will probably reach 5.000 very soon.

    Rgds
     
  20. Steelton Keith

    Steelton Keith F1 Rookie
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    This is a pity. Your American friends wish you good fortune and health
     
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  21. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
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    Thanks Keith; ICUs are at 4.974 persons this morning. Peak of infections expected in two or three weeks.
    Don't relax your guard in the U.S, even with a fantastic rhythm of vaccinations: those new variants are much more contagious...

    Rgds
     
  22. Flavio_C

    Flavio_C Formula 3
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    Italy is so f*cking bureaucratic! Even third world countries such as Brazil and India have already much more people vaccinated.
     
  23. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

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    This pre-print study this month tested serum of 99 individuals vaccinated by pfizer and moderna and found that the mutations on the Brazil P1 lineage evaded the immunity response and was not neutralized. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.21251704v2

    The Manaus population in Brazil had herd immunity with 80%+ getting infected early last year and they all got reinfected with similar symptoms by that variant. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

    Only time will tell how that Lineage P1 goes through the US. Already a number of cases here in Florida and I'm seeing more cases each week at the hospital.
     
  24. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    10,797
    FRANCE
    Unfortunately, I'm not surprised by this. We are suffering the most from the "english variant", but the "brasilian" one and the "South African" one are also expanding. There is, or seems to be (?) also a specific mutation in Brittany which could gave us a "Brittany variant" and is analysed these days.
    The whole country is locked-down again for four weeks, starting Saturday; no travel or drive of more than 6 miles allowed...
    (By the way, but that would take us too far: the situation in Brazil is worsening a lot...)

    Take care, especially at the hopital; but you don't need me to know that.

    Rgds
     
  25. absostone

    absostone F1 Veteran
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    How is everyone doing ?
     
  26. nerofer

    nerofer F1 World Champ

    Mar 26, 2011
    10,797
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    Not bad, thanks for the thoughts. As for myself: first injection of the vaccine tomorrow. But with about 20,94% of the population (exactly 14.032.747 individuals) having got a least one injection, France is still far behind the US (139.978.480, which equates to 42,29%); Italy is more or less on par with France: 12.548.046, which is 20,79%.
    Italy is lifting many of its restrictions starting today; the country was down to an average of 13.220 new contaminations each day last week. restaurants will be allowed to have customers if they have "open terrasses". I'll let Alberto comment further on the Italian matters.

    France will start getting out of lock-down on May 2nd, which seems to many of us a very risky decision, as we are still at about 30.000 new contaminations a day, and still 6.000 persons in ICU, and not going down.
    At least the limit for the 10 km radius (= 6 miles) circle with your home as center will be lifted; I made a principle to exercise the cars "about 60 miles" when they go out, but doing "clover leafs" inside a 10 kms radius circle is rather boring...(furthermore, living very close to the border - three miles - a third of my "allowed circle" is in Germany, so it is "lost" to me, as I can't cross the border).
    Then, if things have not relapsed (??) in the meantime, around the middle of May a decision should be taken about bars and restaurants with open terrasses...
    There will probably be some local adjustments taking into account the local situation.
    I'm skeptical, I think it is too early; I fear another lock-down looming in two or three months...like it just happened in Cyprus: they lifted their lock-down early to be more attractive to tourists, the contaminations have exploded again, and they have just entered another lock-down today...

    How is it going in Illinois and in "Windy City"?

    Rgds
     
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  27. Nicolas21

    Nicolas21 Formula Junior

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    Agree with you, I sincerely doubt that we will be able to contain the virus before 2022. Each time we feel a tiny improvement, we lighten the measures and it starts to rise again and we restrict, again and again, it never ends.
    I cycled in the forest on Sunday, there were a lot of people because they become crazy staying at home.
    Note for people: forest where I live is as hazardous as the virus, because we can find bombs and other explosives which did not detonate.
    And when it explodes:
    Image Unavailable, Please Login
    Two years ago it was a forest road
     
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  28. greg328

    greg328 F1 Rookie

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    Wow, where are you located, nicholas?


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