Is the watch Market imploding?

I noticed several big dealers in the north east have the Rolex Kermit for less than $20,000. I quit wearing Rolex about 24 years ago. In 1998 I bought 4 stainless steel Patek Philippe watches to wear. I never liked leather. Remember the Ferrari market in 1989 and the wicked crash, also the art market in 1990. I really hope things don't go that far south.

 

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Why buy a Ferrari? Get a mustang, put a tune in. Faster than a Ferrari.

 

I get it just want to know what makes Patek a Ferrari? The design doesn’t at least to me? Other factors I’m missing? Super complications, watch history, etc…?

 

I am just glad I started around 2019 to buy again my rolexes from the AD and got positioned infront. At that time there were still displays in the store and people are saying,” you need to buy a datejust first before you can get a sports watch. “
I remember being offered repeatedly a wimbledon dial DJ in 3 stores and I hesitated. Now its a sought after DJ.
Will it go back to how it was, I believe NO.
Why? Most Young people did not buy rolex prior to 2019. Now, it became a fashion trend. I honestly dont know how some people can have aftord it really. And rolex cannot produce more is the problem.
The AD has seen the power of their brand and they are learning how luxury brands work like porsche and ferrari.
Now the grey market is the one affected by the down turn. The AD no.

 

I can’t explain it to you. Everyone has a different passion. One of mine happens to be watches, specifically Pateks. It’s the only brand I buy now. Have owned a bunch of other brands but slowly have consolidated to Patek. Every single one is hand finished. The history, the stories behind each watch… it’s just something you either appreciate or dont. And if you don’t, it’s ok. No biggie but some of us big watch fans really appreciate the technology and mechanics behind the pieces.

For example this watch is a perpetual calendar. It automatically adjusts for 30,31 days of every month. Including 28 days in February. And 29 days every 4 years. If you keep it wound you have to adjust it once every 99 years. All mechanical.

Can other brands do this? Sure. But other brands make fast cars. But you bought a Ferrari for a reason.

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This one is a stop watch- will measure 1/10 of one second:

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But a timex will do the same. So if you don’t value it- just get that. Me- nothing but Patek.

 

yes buy a timex and have change for a Rolls Royce! I’d take the Patek though. I like this watch but too similar to my 5370p

 

That’s what I was looking for thanks!

 

I recently had a conversation with my AD about getting a very special rolex. Now ive bought watches and jewelry from them so its not uncommon for me to request some watches. Ive gotten basically everything ived asked.
But now im into gold watches, Gold Rolexes.

Basically he told me,
if i dont spend a million dollars in their store, they cannot guarantee me any watches, they can keep me in mind though.

What are your thoughts guys? A Rolex AD store being frank with me. It made me think its time to stop buying watches.

 

I could certainly turn out to be wrong, but I never bought into the "new normal" stuff over the past couple years. Just like that sort of talk should often make you deeply suspicious in other markets, the same is very likely true here. Among other things (e.g., vacation/dining spending being redirected to luxury good purchases during Covid) I think Rolex has been riding a major hype train over the past couple years with Instagrammers (even completely broke ones) buying them to flaunt. However, the nature of these hype trains is that eventually they lose steam because you aren't pushing the envelope and making yourself stand out anymore by flaunting the same thing you and others have been flaunting for an extended period. You aren't "influencing" if you're doing the same as everyone else.

I think the hype train will move on to something else and things will return more to the baseline. Then you can return to the store with a big grin when watches are sitting in the case and they're offering discounts again, as was the situation for quite a long time previously.

 

It's time to find another dealer IMHO.

 

Yep - I just posted some similar information in another thread having to do with 993-series Porsches - If someone paid $50K for a steel Daytona and they love it $50K worth then god bless em but at the end of the day a steel Rolex Daytona is currently a $14,550 watch - period.

 

Find another AD - That is complete BS and will come back to haunt them. I have purchased 5 watches from my AD - Three Rolexes (Steel Datejust/Steel White Dial 116520 Daytona/Steel GMT II Batman) and two Tags (Original-Spec Monaco / 160th Anniversary Carrera) - Give or take $44K worth of watches - I could walk in tomorrow and they would gladly put me on a list for a Gold Daytona, GMT, Sub or even a DD.

Very few people spend $1M on Rolex watches and if that was/is the demographic your AD is targeting then I hope they are also an RM dealer.

Cheers

 

I believe most AD work thesame IMO. My AD just became frank with me. Maybe he wanted me to spend more. Maybe they thought I would.
Honestly, buying rolexes is still cheaper than buying cars. There is this pleasure wearing or even just looking at a rolex(es) in a watch box.
But a million dollars to get the hyped rolex, I felt my purchase history was not enough and I thought I was a big spender lol.

 

What possible modern Rolex would require $1M spend? Are asking them to find you a Paul Newman Daytona? What "hyped" model are you interested in? A Platinum Daytona is around $250k in the current grey market meaning less for MSRP through an AD-

 

I have seen and heard a lot of differences between AD. I would not just assume they are all the same. YMMV

 

Its just time to hold any watch purchases for a few years.Greed has its bad taste. Im happy where my watch collection is right now.
Im more than happy to save money this year. Taxes is around the corner.

 

Thanks to these new events, I will now look at other brands that would give me excellent service.
I dont need a Rolex or AP to tell me Ive made it thru life.

 

I’m sure there’s of told you but I’ve had great experiences with my Pan, GP, IWC, Bell and Ross, Graham, Chopard and Cartier. Lots of different styles and vibes. Buy limited editions and you always make (or at least don’t lose) $$$. I have three Rolex and I almost always chose something else before them. In fact they are not even in the watch box they are in the safe hidden away.

 

Just depends which AD you talk to and what city. Some dealers might have a lot of big customers that they have to take care of first vs if you can find an AD that may not have that much business. Or if you are friends with an AD that could help a lot.

 

If you have a steel Daytona for that price in good condition... I'll buy!!