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is the bubble due to burst?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by PFSEX, Jan 18, 2013.

  1. Prancing 12

    Prancing 12 Formula 3

    May 11, 2004
    2,306
    The long way home
    The LaFerrari hammered at $2,800,000; the screen shot posted is the all-in price. So it's not just shy of $3.4, it's just over $3 million... Also, don't forget that the consignor would have netted significantly less than the hammer price as the auction likely could take their pick of LaFerrari consignments and is unlikely to be very flexible on their typical 10% seller fee.

    It's not at all surprising that you could sell several LaFerraris if you had a buyer at $3.3... If there's a buyer at $3.3 out there for a standard coupe (I bet there isn't), they should be able to buy any car they want.

    The TDF is owned by a dealer... Same deal with the LaFerrari - doubtful there would be any break on seller fees and the selling dealer no doubt figured they could do better from their showroom than their net from the auction.
     
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  3. technom3

    technom3 F1 Veteran
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    You are right about the laFs price. Hammer price used to report the price at the hammer now it seems they pull the feed from the websites which include the comission.

    You are wrong about the typical fee.

    Very common to net the selling price and pay no fee... or even get a contribution back... especially there is 300k on the buy side to chop up. SAME WITH THE TDF
     
  4. Alexander GTB

    Alexander GTB Rookie
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    Apr 29, 2019
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    Alexander Denhartog
    RedBlossoms mapped the market since Y1999.
    In the 'Classic Ferrari Value Development Report 2018' the correlation between value development and several characteristics of models is analyzed. Besides 'age', 'number of cars on the market', 'engine type' etc, also 'value'.


    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  5. Italian Tuneup

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    Apr 16, 2019
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    Stefan
    go to settings in the hammer price app and there you can switch between showing prices with or without buyer premiums
     
  6. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    I'll bet the big auctions are loving the fact that they have to "suspend future auctions" right now!

    There's a lot of fed money and cash that's about to get saved or thrown back into the Dow right now, and I'll bet none of it is going to the classic car market.
     
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  8. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
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    BAT appears to still be going strong this week. Guess those folks don't watch TV or read newspapers! :eek:
     
  9. amenasce

    amenasce Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Oct 17, 2001
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    Joe Mansion
    Of course not. That market will be dead until we have a clear understanding of where we are going. Right now, no one knows.
     
  10. Juan-Manuel Fantango

    Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 18, 2004
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    I saw that. A friend just sold a 550 and they were surprised. Sometime in the past year or so BAT became the place to sell and not so much to buy.

    I had hope to steal the Vetrorosina 308 at Amelia but it did not happen. However if someone has to sell, now might be the time to buy
     
  11. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    BAT is more of a cult than an indicator of market value
     
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  13. henryr

    henryr F1 World Champ
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    Nov 10, 2003
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    the black one? 110k i think
     
  14. The Red Baron

    The Red Baron Formula Junior

    Jan 3, 2005
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    Warren
    For every car sold it is bought by someone.
     
  15. tbakowsky

    tbakowsky F1 World Champ
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    Sep 18, 2002
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    Ya dont say... penguin's have stopped buying?
     
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  16. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    It's going to be dead after the virus is dead as well. The market already called the recession, it's here. Just a matter of how quickly it turns the other way. And what that spells is the end of this car cycle. And if you go from history, the prices will be low for years, not months.

    If you paid 12x market value for a mass produced "modern classic" because it had "very low miles and is a time capsule" you got played.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-16/how-does-a-bmw-sports-sedan-double-in-value-over-16-years

    https://jalopnik.com/this-437-mile-2002-bmw-m5-sold-for-176-000-at-auction-1828778715

    If you've been hoarding a bunch of air cooled 911s since 2014, time to start calculating your overheard for keeping them until they year 2050. Or sell them tomorrow, those are going to be your best two courses of action.
     
  17. fiatosca

    fiatosca Karting
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    Looking at what happened to Ferrari prices after the great recession, it took 3-4 years for prices to recover and return to pre-recession levels. The silver lining here is that the Ferrari market did not drop as drastically as the Dow on a percentage basis and the recovery time was in step with the recovery in the stock market. With history as our guide a case could be made that investing in Ferraris is as prudent as buying into an index fund.
     
  18. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    Uh, it took a heck of a lot longer than 3 to 4 years! LOL!
     
  19. 375+

    375+ F1 Veteran
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    Dec 28, 2005
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    Not in the post-2008 period. Post-1989 was a different story.
     
  20. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    Market for ferraris didn't go nuclear until december 2013 basically, january 2014. The meltdown was in 2007-2008.

    Bottom line is unless your Ferrari is RIDICULOUSLY rare, then it is NOT an investment. It is a gas spewing, insurance costing, high maintenance, money draining asset.

    But it is a very very damn fun money draining asset :)

    And I won't be surprised one bit that once this virus is whipped, that the auction companies will delay, delay delay the next upcoming auctions "to be on the safe side" LOL
     
  21. italiancars

    italiancars F1 Rookie

    Apr 18, 2004
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    Post 1989/90 Gulf War was a market meltdown, 2008 was a short market correction not a meltdown.
     
  22. 375+

    375+ F1 Veteran
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    The car market cracked in January of 1990 although the Japanese kept buying for a another year or so. Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990.
     
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  23. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
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    the meltdown in cars was late 2009...it lagged the sp500 by 6 to 9 months. housing took even longer to bottom, closer to mid 2011. this makes sense as people sell liquid assets first to meet obligations, and then less liquid assets follow and ultimately the house. i wldn be buying any cars right now unless its a one off liquidation, in 6 months there will be plenty of deal especially on the 2012+ stuff. and lets not even talk about in 3 yrs...2020 model cars will see the fastest depreciation if any year before it.
     
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  24. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
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    ha this i cant comment on! i was on my mongoose in 1990!
    :)
     
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  25. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
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    I assume you are talking about new "toys" like C8 Corvettes, Supras, Ferraris, Lambos, etc. Depending on the severity of the downturn and shape of the recovery, I would expect folks to hang on to good condition newer cars for a long time and ease the decline in ordinary daily driver type cars until their finances get sorted out.
     
  26. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
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    i think thats unlikely. alot of the newer cars are newbies who think theyve been added to the club with little downside. when they see what the values of their cars are they will puke them and there arent enough asses for all the cars made. and alot of the newer stuff is bought in credit by people who planned for X cash flow...you can see it mclaren and ferrari prices already...
     
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  27. 19633500GT

    19633500GT F1 Veteran
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    Correct. Roughly 86% of new car purchases in the US are financed.

    What happens to the $1.3 TRILLION dollar bubble of owed auto loans...

    It doesn't take rocket science, unfortunately, it will be bad.
     
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  28. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    Yeah the people getting laid off right now make up at least a quarter of that trillion-two dollar balance. That market is in for a severe hit right now. 400 hundred billion dollars gone.
     
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