is the bubble due to burst? | Page 127 | FerrariChat

is the bubble due to burst?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by PFSEX, Jan 18, 2013.

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  1. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #3151 paulchua, Jul 21, 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
    One thing I got to hand to you Brad, at least you're still sticking around (I would be too embarrassed myself.) Super_Dave has dropped his wisdom and ran (don't blame him.) It was over 2 years ago that he said that the COLLAPSE of the US economy was nigh*.

    Sorry to whoever supported either of you and pulled out of the financial markets.

    *It's always a possibility, but woe is me if I were to tell any of you fine gentlemen that it's imminent, who the hell am *I* to know? (and that is my point) .. and then to get mad when somebody points out that I've been proven wrong?
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  2. PV Dirk

    PV Dirk F1 Veteran

    Jul 26, 2009
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    When I think there is a bubble and pull out I find I'm about two years too early. I pulled some money today, not because of any thoughts of a bubble but to do some repairs on my home. So I predict I will lose two years of growth. ;) The only smart money rule I have is that short term needs money should not be in the market.
     
  3. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    :) hahaha I hear you brother!!

    Cheers
     
  4. Smiles

    Smiles F1 World Champ
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    I just got my Hemmings Motor News.

    Wow! There's over a hundred ads for Enzo-era Ferraris.

    That's VERY unusual. Feels like a saturated market to me.

    Matt
     
  5. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    Thats interesting.

    I will point out that cars and eras and manufactuers ebb and flow money moves from one segment to another...

    Many people attribute to offerings as conclusive sales and thats a mistake in this end of the market.

    Now when there are 5000 honda civics for sale... vs 1000 civics for sale (im just making things up here) then yes the market is saturated. These cars are likely going to have to sell...

    enzo era ferraris on the otherhand... they may just be taken off the market if they don't sell.

    Now... if the sellers of those cars are in a race to the bottom of price... then we have a problem... but more than likely... the cars will just stay put if they don't get what they want
     
  6. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    How many Enzo Era Ferraris were made? I seem to remember the number being around 5,000. So that means there are about 2% on the market (or at least listed in HMN). Is that a big change from historic norms? I think that is also a very relevant question, for which I don't know the answer.

    My observation is the market on these cars feels like its pulling back a bit. I'm not sure I would use the technical word of "correction" and I certainly use the word "crash". I think some cars got hot real fast and are now cooling down or cold. I think you have to look car by car.

    The question I now have is where does the market go from here?
     
  7. Mrpbody44

    Mrpbody44 F1 Veteran

    Jul 5, 2007
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    Keep in mind demographics is in play. Owners are getting older and things happen. I am 59 and had 4 people I have known for years die last week. Death, divorce and bankruptcy bring cars to market. Lots of vintage race cars for sale as owners on meds can't race.
     
  8. Foncool

    Foncool Formula Junior

    Oct 27, 2011
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    I am somewhat reminded of an old Robin Williams line - when I was young the doctor would tell me Mr. Williams if you don't stop taking those drugs you're going to die. Now that I'm older the doctor tells me Mr Williams if didn't take these drugs you're going to die.
     
  9. Smiles

    Smiles F1 World Champ
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    Yes, something over 5,000 odd numbered cars, meaning street cars. Even serial numbers were race cars.

    There are more like 150 in Hemmings. 3% of production, and a lot got scrapped.

    Unprecedented since 1989.

    Matt
     
  10. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    Just to add some context for those people who don't fully grasp the market and those who read this thread and don't go do any research themselves...

    Let me give you a giant hint... its AUGUST!

    76 of those cars on Hemmings are auction listings for the biggest car spectacle in the world.

    Context... Its important.
     
  11. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

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    #3161 166&456, Aug 7, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2017
    It's funny I used to visit individual stock forums. Same kind of messages going on. Potential buyers talking the market down, sellers talking the market up, both hoping to influence eachother as well as holders of the instrument in question. Holders are usually the biggest group and either in don't care mode or just looking for market clues - but not in buy or sell mode - yet.

    Point being, each participant has their own interest and that counts usually more in the messages than objective opinion. My view is that the buy mode people are the most persuasive in throwing out negative messages.
     
  12. robertgarven

    robertgarven F1 Veteran
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  13. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    I absolutely agree.

    The only thing I would add is sometimes the people you would put in the buyers group are not actually buyers. They would consider buying a car for x price (under current market) and they have been offered several cars that are close in price but not the right price but they spout about how they were offered 4 cars for x and they can have there pick of the litter


    Problem is... they arent really looking and they didn't examine the car close enough. So many times in the classic car market or high end market there is a blemmish, or too many owners, or not complete enough service history or lacking some particular options, or missing provenance that keeps us from pulling the trigger. So in reality of the 4 cars that were offered the buyer actually wouldn't buy any of them... at times... at ANY price.

    A prime example for me is Boss 429s. You can see gooding selling them for 200-250k. I sold mine for 400k. why? because there is a difference between the ones on offer at 250k and the ones at 400k. They are both "restored" but... they are not the same car.

    The guy who paid 400k felt he got a very good deal and would never consider any of the cars at 200ish.

    so when people say they have been offered this or that or that these are available for this price... dig in to it. You may learn that a 1965 blah blah blah isn't always the same as the other 1965 blah blah blah. And then you learn how rare the particular thing you are looking for is and it provides you with context of value
     
  14. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

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    #3164 166&456, Aug 13, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2017
    Yes! Condition is everything and very original is very rare. In the end it's what most people want. If you buy a shiny but badly restored car it can cost you a lot of time, money and aggravation to get to that point. Most shops I know will calculate with 2500 hours to properly restore and that does not include parts or your time. A lot of parts cannot be found or deviate from the original so even when restored to perfection it may never reach original condition or feel. Also, I do like a bit of patina, "feel the history" so to speak. With restoring, that is often lost or restored vs unrestored items start to feel anachronistic in the same car. So it makes sense to buy the best and leave the rest.
    In my case, I prefer original cars even if they are driver condition as long as the substance is there and standard of maintenance was high or it can be sensibly brought to that level.
     
  15. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

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    I think the current market conditions bring out more examples like this: https://www.marktplaats.nl/a/auto-s/oldtimers/m1194102694-porsche-911-2-7-coupe-1975-apk-07-2019-europese-auto.html
    A tacky non original 1975 Porsche 2.7 coupe. It's the perfect example of a car such as I mentioned. A model that people expect to sell at least double or triple the 27.5k€ asking price but offered as a bargain because its a car with a lot of (expensive) needs. If the sale concludes and finds its way in valuations, it will pull those stats down.
    I speak from experience that better cars still sell and very quickly too.
     
  16. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    LOL... right?

    The article lacks context.

    Without the context... you get a headline.

    Headlines sell.

    As I have said for 3 years. Everything now a days is either "Market is on fire" or "fire sale everything is collapsing" There is no normal market. Steady is seen as a massive negative.

    Money and attention just rushes to the loudest or brightest thing. Its total bull****.

    Yes the numbers have slid back. Thats because the porsche Market was completely unsustainable. I bet if you could break it down... the Porsche market is probably 80% of the rise and fall... and 308 ferraris and manual transmission ferraris another 10%.
     
  17. silver1331

    silver1331 Formula Junior
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  18. energy88

    energy88 Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I was going to post this same article but see it is already here. I saw it mentioned on a gold site this morning. After reading the previous posts starting from yesterday, it appears to me that the Wolf Street article is a derivative of the earlier Business Insider article in May except for a redesigned front-end playing up the Monterey auction.

    My take on the Wolf Street article is that a 15% decline in REAL terms is no big deal. Yes, more than "noise" but still in the correction zone. I've commented earlier that I don't believe a market reversal can be confirmed until the decline exceeds at least one statistical standard deviation, which is probably in the range of 20-something percent. Expressing the Hagerty data in "real" terms on the graph does tend to amplify the degree (percentage) of decline. However, the run-up and pullback is quite orderly- no sudden "air pocket" declines. What I found most interesting about the Wolf Street article were the 71 comments by people probably not on FChat.

    I think 166&456 really hit the nail on the head with these words about reading the classic car market tea leaves: "not in buy or sell mode - yet."
     
  19. ersatzS2

    ersatzS2 Formula Junior
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    +1 my wife forwarded me from zerohedge so I thought i'd mosey over to this thread to review sentiments. My personal experience in the market is certainly consistent with the Hagerty data; there was an absolute softening starting in '15. I am long on Porsche Turbos, so pay attention to that market, and it is fascinating how the early cars ('75-'77 Turbo-Carreras) took off like crazy, followed by the 3.3 intercooled cars, while the later 930s lagged way behind. Now prices for the 3.3s and the later '80's cars have somewhat equalized suggesting the collector / connoisseur participants have been over-run by more conventional nostalgia chasers? (There are a LOT of 930s out there, and if the market regards them all equally then they'll plateau like E-types did for decades)

    I bought a GTA last summer 'by accident' when i lobbed in a remote 'safety bid' with Bonhams. When prices suddenly seem to look 'reasonable' again, that suggests a cooling market...

    In terms of 'why' the spike then decline, this thread is so overburdened with theories that i won't tender my own, but it certainly has been fascinating to watch!
     
  20. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

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    It's certainly fascinating. My feeling is that stocks are hotter game in town than cars at the moment. And I know that many will disagree with me for thinking that game isn't up yet. In itself that is good news, classic cars tend to do well at the end of bullmarkets in stocks. Many believe we are already there.
     
  21. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    great screen captures. Thankfully almost everyone recognized that those numbers were insane and those cars didn't trade hands at those numbers.
     
  22. BarryK

    BarryK Formula 3

    Dec 17, 2016
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    Very good! Let's hope you won't have to post another set from today in 2019 :)
     

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