is the bubble due to burst? | Page 122 | FerrariChat

is the bubble due to burst?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by PFSEX, Jan 18, 2013.

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  1. Ferrari 308 GTB

    Ferrari 308 GTB F1 Veteran

    Feb 21, 2015
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    Tropical
    Tending to agree with this ^ i mean does anybody really care anymore about who is 'right or wrong'
     
  2. peterp

    peterp F1 Veteran

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    I honestly don't think there is any such thing as a lesser Ferrari. Every model is special in terms of the unique flavor of passion it brings to the owner, independent of whatever value the market might happen to assign to it. My old Mondial 3.2 was inexpensive, but it will always be near the very top of cars I've owned in terms of driving enjoyment because it was the perfect balance of performance, comfort, and driver engagement that stimulated every sense in a way that couldn't be duplicated by anything else. I've yet to meet an owner of a QV or later Mondial that doesn't feel the same. I think this is true for all Ferrari models. Every model delivers passion in a different way -- some deliver it in raw performance, some in beauty, some in balance -- but all are special and unique. 99 percent of those who think poorly of any particular Ferrari model have been educated by the internet -- and the opinion among those who actually own them is usually the polar opposite. The upside of the misinformation among "internet experts" is that it helps keep the price in check for buyers of the models that are misunderstood.
     
  3. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    In all honesty... did anyone expect anything less?

    its a discussion where everyone brings their own crystal ball to the discussion... and talks about how much better there crystal ball can see the future.

    In otherwords... if you take it litteraly... then you are in for a fight in crazy town might as well bring the dragons and dwarfs and demons to this magical fight.


    Or if you take it as an analogy... you are knowingly entering into a debate over opinion... which... lets face it... never goes well on the internet
     
  4. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    Jesus, this Chua guy is still at it? LMAO! Speechless :)
     
  5. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    Cliffnotes to Paul's troll-bible

    Fair warning twice given by Paul Chua, after I had already put him on ignore, this was back in January of 2015. So he has now been trolling and instigating for well over a year without a response from me. (I have not been able to see it today since you paraphrased this message). Also this was in an art-related thread that had nothing to do with the ONE conversation I had with him, which ended after he began calling me names. Something that I never did to him.

    1. Two points he made in the warning were regarding people that are speculating. (I never once called anyone on here directly a name or directly insulted them. Also, I never flip-flopped on anything. I sold my cars last summer to free up cash, and I did so at the right time when the market was about at its peak. I was not there to make money on them. Sold my Maranello at a break even, (sunk 20k into it and drove the wheels of of it) and sold my TR at a profit. I bought the TR back at a lower price. Just as I said would happen to the market. So how is that a flip flop? LOL

    2. Again, I never bought my cars to flip. I drove each car about 4k miles in a 2 year period, and I even bought one of them back at a lower price. But apparently Paulchua has a window into the inner gears of my brain that I am not aware of.
    Paulchua suggests that I buy more salvage cars that are exempt from the runup, yet the asking prices are still significantly higher than before (my car was proof of this) wrong again. Yet he lies and changes the words up to meet his perspective/need to be a troll.

    3. Says that I wish Ferrari owners ruin. Wrong again, as I was referring to the "new money in the market" that are speculating. Not the enthusiast. Show me one time I've ever directly wished anyone on the board "ruin". Another out of context lie.

    4. Uses an out-of-context humor scenario describing someone who is simply following the herd (speculating). And then brings up another scenario where prices were getting distorted. (yes dinos were changing hands for F40 money before the F40 did the run-up. A sign that I knew something wasn't right, but had not yet conceded a market bubble, just in Dinos). All I did was mention this. And again referring to speculators only. But Paul doesn't care, he's a troll. Also brings up 512trs here where at the time period in 2012 (bubble hadn't lifted off yet on modern) 512trs were selling for 60-80k. I even attempted to buy a black 512TR with an asking of 72k out in LA at the time. One dealer in Florida was asking crazy money for a car less clean than that one with a cell phone hole in the fender. This is what I was referring to. Another lie by Paulchua. Also, I didn't see the bubble yet as it was only limited to the dino at that time. Nor did I claim their was a bubble in 2012. And he further mentions TRs listed north of 100 in April 2013. There were PLENTY of private party cars listed and changing hands in the 60s and 70s at the time. Another lie by Paulchua.

    5. post makes no sense, says the crash will hurt enthusiasts? LOL. Not at all, just noted that the enthusiasts will not be there to support the outrageous prices and won't step in until they become more realistic. Another blatant play on words

    6. Posts were made in the art market forum (not motors) and was supported by one of the members on here has been heavily involved in the high dollar auction houses. Basically units changing hands (art or cars) in the 500k and up range are heavy targets for money launderers or people setting up straw companies to bid on their own item. Yes this does happen Paulchua. And I never said that this is the biggest cause to a run-up in prices during a bubble. I said it is a "symptom" of the bubble as the run-up draws in more greed.

    7. Again says I "hate owners and call them pigs" another lie as I only said this about the new money speculators. And notes the sale where I noted the prices were rising at the time. (which they were) not sure how this can be seen as "talking up". A moot point anyhow being that nobody has the ability to talk the market up or down. Transactions talk, words do not.

    8. harassed me for weeks to talk to him so that he could "prove me wrong" and call me names. The reason I did not want to was that most on this thread know view and arguments/evidence and DON'T NEED to hear it spewed out again. (I was trying to spare them) that's why it was moved to PM. In which Paul asked me a thousand questions and then at the end started calling me names (which is why I told him to get lost). He then kept replying "oh I must have struck a nerve." Total instigator and then I put him on ignore, yet he continued to troll FOR WELL OVER A YEAR without a reponse until today. (Has now been trolling for well over a year apparently!) LOL!

    9. Run-up in prices are annoying to enthusiasts because not all of them are big time millinaires and billionaires which is where the run-up is leaving the price of the market.

    10. Says and I quote "enthusiasts don't care about the value of their cars." Of course they do and I never said that either. Another lie. I said (as shown) that they care more about the experience, which I think many would agree that they do.

    The only loser is you PaulChua, (although psycho or psychotic instigator are probably more fitting terms) unlike you I have a life and unlike you, and I quote.

    "I feel it's my duty to continue to expose that you are just as guilty (sometimes even more) of the things you accuse others of."

    Get a life buddy.
     
  6. Drive550PFB

    Drive550PFB Two Time F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Back to the subject at hand.

    Is there a bubble? I think so.

    Is it going to burst/Has it burst? Here is where it gets tricky. I saw the run up on prices in the late 80s and the subsequent fall to earth. Same in the 90s. I thought we would fall back already, but I have been wrong.

    On the other hand, on most cars, the auction prices are starting to decline. Look at 550s, 575s, 599s and 612s. Except incredible and garage queen stick shift cars in these models, most others have moderated--not crashed but definitely pulled back.

    I think further pull backs are in order for the paddle shift cars, as everything now is paddles. I also think that the V-12s will pull back less than the V-8s because most V-8s these days are turbocharged and thousands of these cars are now on the secondary market.

    In terms of economics, a smart guy once said that flowers don't grow to the sky--they eventually topple over. I think prices should come down soon, but as I said before, I have been predicting this for years.
     
  7. cheesey

    cheesey Formula 3

    Jun 23, 2011
    1,921
    no bubble yet, the central banks have been printing money diluting the existing value of their currencies... the Fed has increased the money US supply by 400% in the prior 8 years... current prices reflect that it takes more ( diluted ) dollars to pay for the same value... stored value of F cars has not changed, new prices reflect the diluted value of the dollar... any seller that accepts lower price would be taking a loss... the markets also are reflecting increased confidence the economy should improve from years of lackluster (non) performance... further insuring that F car prices will be buoyed up along with the entire soon to be flourishing economy... even RACE reflects the new optimism after languishing from a slow start
     
  8. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I think the bubble has burst, at least for the more "ordinary" cars.

    I've been watching C/4s for a while, you can see it pretty clearly by comparing auction results with some of the asking prices. And, for that matter, the spread in asking prices between those who actually want to sell their car, and those who are just listing it.
     
  9. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #3034 paulchua, Feb 24, 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
    it's all good...
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  10. readplays

    readplays Formula 3

    Aug 22, 2008
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    +1
    Right there with you.
     
  11. BIRA

    BIRA Formula Junior

    Jun 15, 2007
    950
    At that time i.e. Previous bubbles they did not create 4 trillion USD of new money nor zero interest rates for an indefinite period of time,,,,it will take a massive amount of time to correct the effect of those, and even if inflation kicks in, real assets will still be perceived as some hedge vs further loss of value of currency.

    Conclusion it should and ultimately will correct, not all cars are Rembrand and Stradivarius, so the average ones will fall back , but this cycle is a much longer one because it is not, unlike 1989 a car bubble, it is a monetary bubble. So cars are one of the many assets that have moved up because of the above, not a single asset class subject to speculation which make them then much more sensitive to readjustment.
     
  12. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Mar 2, 2005
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    Absolutely agree.

    Marcel Massini
     
  13. wintrader

    wintrader Rookie

    Dec 22, 2010
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    Yep 100% correct.

    Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk
     
  14. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    Hello Peter, thank you for your kind words. I agree 100%!
     
  15. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #3040 paulchua, Feb 27, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2017
    Totally agree, that's why I find it laughable, when people have for years say - the 'crash' is right around the 'corner' - for FIVE YEARS!

    Sure - I guess 'right around the corner' is subjective, I understand that. To me a reasonable interpretation of 'right around the corner' means 'imminent.' My clowning is not directed to those that are having fun trying to gauge the winds of change. This is a good and healthy thing. It is to those that have said with much authority that it is imminent, and time again are proved WRONG. Just calling out and cashing in old chips that were won.

    There is no doubt in my mind we are in a broad bubble of historic proportions. I agree every asset class is inflated. If one were to purchase an investment vehicle for short-term investment purposes, in my opinion - now is not the time. I have said as such many times in this thread as well as others.

    There are two tiers, however. One is creme da creme era cars; the other is post-Enzo Fiat/Montezemolo cars. Both are NOT immune to price pressure (as we have already seen) and of course, 'crash' is always possible.

    The latter tier (non-limited series), is the topic for facetious retorts. These cars rarely required for a pure investment, nor would I exhort anyone to buy a 3XX to 'flip' it. That time has come and gone.

    If one were consumed with indecision for more 'pedestrian' models now or after 'the crash' and make their decisions based on armchair prognosticators, I would say in this context - the time is piddled.

    If one is trying to time best time to buy a 250...then sure - extreme analysis is not only wise, but critical.

    After all, we can spend all our time trying to identify the next 'crisis' - without a specific time frame - if for say a 360? It's just onanism, the fact of the matter is - the next 'crisis' always finds us.
     
  16. johnei

    johnei Formula 3
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  17. 300GW/RO

    300GW/RO Formula Junior

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  18. dwhite

    dwhite F1 Rookie

     
  19. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #3044 paulchua, Mar 2, 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
    I do admit; I *am* a troll here on Ferrarichat, but only to other trolls. Just view BradWilliams history (and the multitude of negative responses he is received) and judge for yourself.

    I am happy to let history speak for itself. I have also never been banned here. That should also tell you something about who the 'real' troll is.

    The one sentence summary of my issue with BW?

    He has been saying a total global financial collapse is imminent for five years and counting.
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  20. gated_shifter

    gated_shifter Formula Junior

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    ain't nobody got time for trolls...
     
  21. Fennicus

    Fennicus Formula Junior

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    Pekka T.
    For what it's worth I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I am saying that for being banned on fchat all that is required is to not understand what Americans may consider "political" or "religious". As I am not an American I do not understand and I have been banned here on fchat for saying that IMHO it is not right to burn a classic Ferrari even if you own it, as in my world that is considered barbaric and something nobody should be allowed to do, like destroy a painting or anything of cultural or historic value. But I guess to some that would indicate that I am a socialist (please excuse the laughter) or a religious fanatic. To my defense I would only like to add that yes, I am a fanatic, but only a car fanatic. About socialism let me just add that I grew up next to the Soviet Union. You guys have no idea how much we hate that system. End of story.

    Cheers,

    Pekka T.
    Fin.

    Ps. If it ever would burst I would be buying, and so would many others, so then it's not really a bubble, or is it? :)
     
  22. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #3047 paulchua, Mar 3, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2017
    I thinks it totally cool to talk bubbles, business, your girlfriend, the weather, whatever you want.

    But say for 5 years I tell you the stock market (along with the Ferrari cars) is going to crash next week..It gets tiring.

    People that don't frequent this board don't have context, or have not been exposed to NostraBradWilliams. He might as well start telling us the winning lotto numbers for next week too.

    Cheers
     
  23. Fennicus

    Fennicus Formula Junior

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    Thanks, I think I see your point, but again being a long time lurker, I would like to add that especially coming from where I am, not saying out loud what I think does not mean I haven't been following the discussion for years. And I do have a problem keeping my mouth shut, but again it's somewhat cultural, in Finland I may be a talkaholic, but in Italy or Spain they might wonder why I am so quaiet. Ok, I hope you get the picture.

    I do not know BW and I may not agree with him, but my point was that someone is not by definition a "troll" just because they got banned here, or that they do not agree with the majority of fchatters.

    Cheers,

    Pekka T.
    Fin.
     
  24. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    This is true. That being said, the moderators have been in my experience have been pretty good banning/blocking folks for egregious behavior.
     
  25. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Very nice looking 365GT 2+2 sold on BringATrailer for $181k. I'd say that represents a decent correction from values last year, especially for this condition.

    1970 Ferrari 365 GT 2+2 | Bring a Trailer
     

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