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is the bubble due to burst?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by PFSEX, Jan 18, 2013.

  1. boxerman

    boxerman F1 World Champ
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    Gm research indiactes that 40% of kids love cars and or are gearheads. Personally i dotn think this stat was ever different. The difference is now the other 60% are urban and dont see the need for a car as before.

    Things change, hot rodders became drifters or into rice hondas, same culture essentialty. There are more exotics sold new now than ever, I woudl say car culture is alsive and well, it exists in paralell with the car is an unfortunatly necessary appliance crowd.


    Also a lot of "invetstment" cars are owned by people clueless about cars, these are meerly valuable possetions. The investment car culture has grown in leaps and bounds.
     
  2. paulchua

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    Given enough time and the way things are going, Brad maybe right. I mean who's to say in 20-30 years time only automated vehicles are allowed on public roads? I mean I don't hear a huge market for vintage airplanes. If this does happen, then were all SOL.

    This being said, Brad, can't you just enjoy your beautiful TR and drive in good health and contentment? Whether a 250 goes for 10million or 35million, this shouldn't have any bearing on the enjoyment of your car?
     
  3. Mrpbody44

    Mrpbody44 F1 Veteran
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    There will always be a market for classic cars. My statement was about what I have seen in other markets over the last 20 years as an observer of market activity and trends. It is my observation that classic cars will encounter a lot of the reversals that other markets have or currently experiencing. If I had a time machine to go to 1994 tell to an American 18th century furniture collector that prices in 2016 would be below 1970's prices in real dollars they would have said balderdash every one will want 18th century furniture. It will only go up.
     
  4. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    yep cars have been on the verge of extinction since everyone said japan was going to rule the world
     
  5. paulchua

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    #2555 paulchua, Sep 7, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
    Sorry to break it to you ttforcefed. But see that drop? The 'demise' did arrive.

    "Much like our Blue Chip index, Hagerty’s Ferrari index reclaimed its 1% loss from last period, and while it does not currently sit at an all-time high, it is just shy of that mark."

    -September 2016
    Hagerty

    Of course some of the mainstream higher volume cars did see dip, but that's a far cry from a crash. Well sorted TRs going for 40K. That's when a 'crash' has arrived.
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  6. technom3

    technom3 F1 Rookie
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    Im not following you... or your point on this one. I don't mean this in a sarcastic tone... I genuintely don't get which dip you are talking about... The big one in 08ish? I don't see how that has anything to do with forcefed being wrong about japan etc... maybe Im lost at sea on this one
     
  7. paulchua

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    Hi Justin,

    I was being facetious. I was actually agreeing with ttforcefed. This was in response to 'bradwilliams' our resident troll and perma-bear who declared a few pages back that he predicted (after 6 years mind you) the 'demise' of the Ferrari market.

    As you can see, and we both agree...it is quite healthy.

    Be well.
     
  8. henryr

    henryr F1 World Champ
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    #2558 henryr, Sep 7, 2016
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    fyi, i'm really excited about the prospects of my 300k f40
     
  9. sherpa23

    sherpa23 F1 Veteran
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    #2559 sherpa23, Sep 7, 2016
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    Henry, I think that you're right. Those prospects may, in fact, have "exited."

    :D :D :D

    In all seriousness, will be back down under $1m at some point? Very possible. Will they be $300k again? As I said before, if they are I'll buy a second one. Maybe even a third. In all honesty, however, I don't know if I want to know what kind of world we have if nice F40s are down to $300k again. I suspect it won't be a great one.
     
  10. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    meh! 300K? According to BradWilliams, expect more like 30K. Then we can all buy a couple.

    Sherpa, you can buy a dozen.

    :)
     
  11. henryr

    henryr F1 World Champ
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    my spell checker may know something....
     
  12. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Rookie
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    #2562 Bradwilliams, Sep 7, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2016
    I don't know about that low, but I'd bet on 500-700k at some point. That's about where they were before the Dino craze began.
     
  13. henryr

    henryr F1 World Champ
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  14. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Rookie
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  15. nis1973

    nis1973 Formula Junior

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    The RM London auction is going on now. Some serious prices are being achieved - Audi Sport Quattro at 403k, 1993 911 RS 3.8 at 640k, 1993 911 Turbo S lightweight at 974k. All prices in British pounds...
     
  16. nis1973

    nis1973 Formula Junior

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    1995 911 GT2 sold at 1.848mm pounds! No sign of bubble bursting when it comes to truly limited production 911s...
     
  17. technom3

    technom3 F1 Rookie
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    ahh... well... that makes sense. Sorry for the brain fart. I think I was reading that with too much stress on the brain and wasnt in the "fun" mode I suppose.

    Thanks!

    LOL
     
  18. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

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    1990 #Ferrari F40 with 5k kms sold for £ 924,000 at @rmsothebys at #RMLondon auction
     
  19. paulchua

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    Wow! Congratulations to buyer and seller.

    Although with the 'demise' here, maybe the buyer didn't get BW's memo.
     
  20. MM355

    MM355 Formula 3

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    $300-500,000 I would be seriously inclined in getting one.
     
  21. msn

    msn Formula Junior

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    Special cars, getting special prices, always have and always will..
     
  22. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    that's 1.2M USD - therefore f40s have not come down at all
     
  23. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 Veteran
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    Yes, this is a part of what I am talking about... I wish you good luck in paying off the loans. Its a challenge for our society.

    I completely understand your points, but in this case, I'm not sure if I agree with your analogy. And I will admit that no analogy is perfect. But I think cars can be distinguished because after a home, they reflect the largest use of discretionary income by almost anyone in an industrialized society in the past 90-100 years. That might change one day, but "everyone" has exposure to cars. I'm not so sure that's true for 18th century furniture- at least since the advent of the automobile. And to get a little more specific, 18th Century furniture might be a general category- like automobiles. But Ferraris are a specific segment of the automobile market, is there an 18th century furniture maker or subset of furniture that would be akin to Ferrari- or perhaps other collectible cars?

    Finally, if we are going to use the 1990 F40 as an example, do we know any of its history or condition? Without knowing more, in general, it suggests the F40 market is fairly stable or even a little bit strong that this car could go for ~1.2m USD (before or after commissions?) in a nation that is going through so much and yes, with a bit of a cooling/ pull back in the market in general....
     
  24. technom3

    technom3 F1 Rookie
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    I agree that this car was a very strong result considering what that nation might be facing. I have heard many jokes about people not having any money left to spend... (which of course is BS) and then of course people just saying... people are holding on to there cash to see what comes next of everything. I even think the estimates were almost conservative in nature and in line with what the current economic climate is of the UK
     

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