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How will the art market meltdown affect collector Ferrari cars?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by Platini 289, Feb 7, 2016.

  1. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    thanks for chiming in here ttforcefed. I made a unilateral pledge to SD that I will chill out. I hope it's clear to him that if he makes the same sort of bold proclamations again, he can't expect to whine and complain (as long as I ask respectfully) for substantiation. Even the mods have my back on that gentlemen's agreement. (albeit a unilateral one)
     
  2. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 Veteran
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    FWIW Paul I appreciate your maturity on this. I think ttforcefed is right on point.
     
  3. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    Thank you sir for you kind words!

    I wish you the best!

    Cheers
     
  4. nis1973

    nis1973 Formula Junior

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    All I'm saying is that a ton of very bold proclamations are made here - one camp has been loudly stating that the "bubble is about to burst", the other that we are on the verge of a tsunami of inflation. It's been 3-4 yrs, neither has happened and neither camp has quieted down. I'm a bit too lazy to go back and read all his posts (plus there is a new issue of Octane that I want to read!) but it seems to me that the substance of what SD says falls neatly in this great debate. The two ivy league degrees, four languages, "expert in bubbles" who nailed all previous bubbles and subsequent recoveries, a young guy who somehow was at a trading desk during the time of Greenspan is to me just a sideshow that depending on my mood is annoying, puzzling or amusing...
     
  5. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    I don't disagree - and to my point if he was transparent rather than nebulous it wld be less emotional.

    hey we are on a site called ferrarichat.com where many of us actually own, you guessed it, ferraris.
     
  6. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
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    Just consider this thread one big editorial page. In the end, one must think for themselves before acting on any views presented.
     
  7. paulchua

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    #107 paulchua, Mar 4, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2016
    (Repost from another valuation thread, but I think it has context here)

    I'm going to attempt to illuminate the root of the consternation seen on valuation threads. My desire is to provide insight from my honest opinion on the motivations behind the negative climate on these threads.

    The way I see it is there are three camps:

    1) Speculators & Investors (i.e. dealers, professional traders)
    2) Owner / enthusiasts
    3) A hybrid of 1 and 2, or an aspiring owner.

    For the first group, it goes without saying their opinions are biased based on their personal positions. I liken this to a stock options trading forum. You'll have demagoguery on both sides (up and down)

    For the second group, you'll have folks that pretty much love their cars, and the valuation has a minimal effect on their day to day enjoyment of said vehicles.

    The last group is folks that have an interest in Ferrari but for any myriad of reasons want the valuation to go up or down or maybe even stay flat.

    If there is one thing I've quickly learned about the marque, is the great passion group #2 have. I can attest to this. True, one cannot completely divorce oneself from the valuation of a personal asset, and viewpoints will not be unbiased. With my humble Mondial, I am not even in the same league as many here with multi-million dollar collections. That said, the one thing I share with other owners or enthusiasts is the desire for positive things for Ferrari in all realms, including price.

    This universal love consistently shared is logically extended to valuation. We all are intelligent people here and can readily identify pumping or trashing an asset for financial gain. (Group #1) However, we usually can digest said commentary with a grain of salt when the source of said commentator is transparent. Take Michael Sheehan's market letters, for example, they have had already achieved a "roll the eyes." reception by the broader community (up or down.)

    Now we have group 3. The hybrid enthusiast that focus not only on the cars themselves but equally on the valuation. Talking about the high cost and bubbles is not wrong at all, on the contrary, I would even encourage it. There does, however, seem to be a segment that *only* focus on the downside. It often can rub people the wrong way because all things being equal; I would personally hope for only positive market movement for my fellow Ferrari brethren.

    I cannot think of many valid reasons to hope/seek a 'crash.' One logical position is if one wants to enter the market and has been 'priced out' hoping a correction would allow them to get into the car they love at a price point available to them.

    I think the game of craps is a great analogy to my point (pardon the pun.) No craps game goes on forever; somebody will "7" out sooner or later, and the 'crash' happens, everybody acknowledges this. But when you have a spot on the table, you don't care if the whale on the table betting golds and purple chips is making 10X your red chips (say the high-end Ferrari owners), you and everybody else is just happy things are going well. The only people that are not satisfied are people at the same table with bets on the "don't pass line" which nobody ever gives a hard time because they have a 'stake' and are transparent about it. (See Group#1, investor/speculator/dealer that have a profit motive for a drop)

    Now imagine a person walks by and starts talking very loudly, "he's going to 7 out soon, he's going to crap out soon, he's not going to get his point. You can expect yelling and comments of 'get the hell out of here" (I've seen it!) - and by the dealers no less!

    That is why the question, "what Ferrari do you own" comes up often to naysayers. It is analogous to what is your spot on the table? If one has no play in the game, it is bad form to comment negatively on the 'hot roller."

    Again, please do not confuse this post as an admonition on talking honestly and openly about the market, but when one does so consistently negatively from a position outside looking in (with no vested interest), it is very akin to my analogy above. What mathematically the chances the said roller will continue to hit their points is irrelevant; everybody at the table already knows it's low - they just don't want to be constantly reminded of it.
     
  8. solofast

    solofast Formula 3

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  9. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

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    #109 166&456, Mar 6, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2016
    Is the Daily Mail a reference these days? :)

    The point I made before with my example of the BMW E9 is, is that as prices go up, other things rise with it. Even things that shouldn't, or shouldn't rise as much as the top items. When the quality items go at top prices, everyone gets triggered, and begins chasing after similar items, many of which aren't of such good quality - rusty and poorly treated examples getting tarted up - but get sold anyway at elevated prices to unwary people.
    After a while, realisation sets in - and quality remains. The problem is, that many people are or have become blind to quality, remember that is what got us there, and if that finally sets in, you finally get some correction. And the auction houses will feel that, since there is only what, maybe 30% of true quality on the market and the rest falls - so they take a fairly large hit. Unfortunately people are still blind and look at that 70% to say that the market is dropping and was irrational... but who really was / is irrational at that point?

    With the BMW E9 example there are many on the market that are seemingly cheap but really are far more expensive than the top of the market, all things considered. But if those bad ones fall and take 70% of the low-quality market with them, everyone screams "correction" or "crash", while it really is realisation of what is real value. The real value is in that 30% that actually is properly restored or original. The rest either needs to be parted out or restored at great cost. And as soon as that has finally happened, the "low-end"of the market will have vanished and you will get another upswing. It is how collectible markets work.
    (It is my belief that with a Ferrari you will always have real value, btw - again, in various qualities. That 150k$ 550 might still be cheaper than that 100k$ one. And that considering the 100k$ one has a servicebook and the 150k$ one doesn't, "just" a stack of bills and a careful owner - this game is difficult)

    If that single (fire sale?) Picasso "tete the femme" painting is being held as the reference for the entire art market, then that market deserves a big fall. I doubt it will in the end, but it would deserve it as that would point out a bubble even in quality.
    With the classic car market, we're not there yet imho.
     
  10. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

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  11. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Ok so TR are 50k and f40s are 500k again?
     
  12. 635CSI

    635CSI Formula 3
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  13. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    platini looking at your fchat history you never post in non price/market threads - why is that? do you have nothing else to contribute regarding these great cars?
     
  14. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

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    I'd say we are going back to 2008 prices. IMHO of course. The strongest cars will always hold out better than "the pack". I have seen it all before, it's a market cycle. I've lived through it in the UK with residential property, commercial property as well as the stock market. Reg. the Amelia 275, I would regard that as one of the most desirable cars on the face of the planet, close lineage to the GTO, properly low production numbers etc. The fact that it struggled up to 2.5M is a yellow canary sign of an overly mature market ready for a correction.
     
  15. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

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    With respect tt I am a busy and private person. I love old Ferraris as much as anyone. I am most interested in the Ferrari classic market, hence my posts in the Ferrari classic market threads.
     
  16. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    where do you se sp500 and 10 year US?
    u can't be that busy if u have time to post at all. and if ur private u wldnt be posting anything. so you see why it looks like ur trolling.
     
  17. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

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    I'm here to discuss and debate the Ferrari Classic market and it's prospects thereof. Isn't that the name of the thread? How is that trolling? What sort of a debate would it be if we were all bulls? With respect, can I ask why you are so sensitive to the subject? Do you feel threatened? Insecure? I am not here to discuss the stock market. Yes, I am private and will remain so. Is that within the remit of this forum? Do you find my opinions and supported article web links offensive or at odds to your objective?
     
  18. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    #118 ttforcefed, Mar 11, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2016
    no I find it odd you have nothing you want to contribute regarding these cars that might be helpful, interesting, and differentiated. I'm happy to watch these cars go back to 08 prices and I haven't sold any cars so I speak from a position of love/passion. your goal here seems to be to throw sand and nothing else. I cld be wrong, so others can opine if they care enough but you questioning my sensitivity is funny. I care about fchat/the brand/ and the cars so it's helpful to understand why with your busy schedule you are spending units of energy to be a debbie downer - are you trying to warn people out of ther cars?
     
  19. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

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    Are you trying to oust me for going against your grain?!

    Relax my friend. I come in peace and mean no harm. I would be amazed if anyone would be scared out of their cars based on me posting a few articles detailing opinions from worthy sources. Do you really think F car classic owners would have such little faith in their prized possessions? I will let you have the last word on it - for now tt, I really do have to go. Have a great weekend!
     
  20. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    no but seriously is the 86 TR with 41k miles that sold for 154k really an indication of a bubble popping? to me popping means down 60 or 70 percent etc - just trying to establish an expectation.
     
  21. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

    Sep 21, 2015
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    I do not regard TRs as investment grade automobiles. However, since you ask about an example car from the supposedly robust and growing 80s /90s "modern classic" era, reference from my earlier web link:


    "The big classic car auctions held every January in Scottsdale, Ariz., were a disappointment, with total sales falling 15 percent from last year, the first decline since 2010.
    .....

    As prices surged for late-model Ferraris, fleets of them flooded onto the market. At the Bonhams February sale at the Grand Palais in Paris, six nearly identical Ferraris from the late 1980s to mid-1990s were offered; three failed to sell.

    “The sight of six Ferrari Testarossas, all red, lined up at one auction waiting optimistically for buyers probably summed up much of what’s wrong with the recent bull market,” noted Simon Kidston, founder of an advisory firm for car collectors."
     
  22. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    thank god I didn't put my 512tr up for sale then!
     
  23. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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  24. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #124 paulchua, Mar 13, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2016
    1986 Ferrari Testarossa

    Chassis no. ZFFTA17S000061421Engine no. 00440
    Sold for $181,500 + 10%? premium = maybe even $200,000 sold today.

    24K Miles
    1986 Ferrari Testarossa | Amelia Island 2016 | RM Sotheby's

    I would close my mouth too...
     
  25. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

    Sep 21, 2015
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    "Bigger fool" territory - no cash return until disposal as no income paid - negative cash flow along the way, the car can't be driven much for fear of depreciation - I hope the buyer enjoys looking at it for lengthy period!
     

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