How Long Until F430 Will Have Depreciated the Most (and so best time to buy)?

Welcome to Fchat!
If you are looking at an F430 for under $100,000, it's going to have to be an earlier model and high mileage, or prior accident damage. Maybe even a salvage title. That same car may dip down to the 80's in a few years. Your guess is as good as anyones here. However, If you want a very good condition, low mileage car at that price, it will have to be a 360 for now. The 360 is definitely a great car, but the 430 is better. You are looking at an additional 30-40K for an equal quality 430. The choice is ultimately yours. There are many posts on this topic if you search around Fchat a little.
In a nutshell, the 430 is faster (~100 more HP), more modern interior, and less maintenance (no belt service required every 3 years). The outside looks are subjective, but I think it's probably split 50/50. The 360 will most likely depreciate a little less at this point because it has been around longer, and it mostly bottomed out.
I've never driven a 430, but I can tell you that the 360 is more than enough speed and fun for spirited street driving. If you are planning on tracking it, then the 430 will obviously be a better choice (faster)...not necessarily more fun though.
My plan was to stay with the 360 (my 1st Ferrari) for a while, and if I enjoy Ferrari ownership (Which of course I do, so far), in a few years "skip" over the 430 and buy a 458 after they depreciate a little more. At the end I will end up with an even better car than the 430 with slightly more money than if I bought the 430 first and stayed with it. My logic (I don't know if it's accurate) was to save and invest the $40k that I saved by buying the 360. When it comes time to sell, the 360 won't depreciate too much, then I add the $40k+ that was invested, and I should be within <$50K of the 458 when I'm ready to buy. Bottom line, it will most likely cost me under 100K plus my 360 for the 458!! And I got to enjoy a Ferrari for the years leading up to the 458 purchase. Not sure if my logic pans out properly, but that's the story I'm sticking to.
Good luck!

 

I agree with above.

It looks to me like F430 prices are settling for the past 6 months to a year. They were dropping pretty rapidly from 2010 through 2011. Part of that firming may be the current spring season and part of that may be the general improvement in the economic outlook.

Prices will drop more from condition and mileage rather than being too much inventory-- too many sellers and not enough buyers.

Firming in prices may be in response to the pretty firm holding of prices of 458's even 3 years after they were introduced. F430's look like a bargain now in comparison. Apples-to-apples F430 coupes to 458 Italias is still 70 to 100 grand in difference -- quite a lot.

Will the the F430 drop? Well, 360's would have to drop with them and they are already a great bargain or 458's would have to drop a lot. I don't see massive price reduction unless of accident, high mileage, odd ball color scheme, or some kind of other "story" that would taint it.

Also, coupes and spiders have different prices and different depreciation. Ferrari stopped making spiders in 2009 and didn't import another one until 2012. Even now, 458 spiders are hard to get so if you want a convertible, the F430 spider or 360 spider are your only choice unless you want the more GT-like California (which also aren't cheap).

Remember these two things when looking at price/value:

1) you get what you pay for

2) there is no such thing as a "cheap" Ferrari.

As to gaining in value, I don't see that happening in a long, long time -- if ever. If you look at 308 prices, the have been pretty stable for years. I think that will happen to 360's and F430's also eventually. They just aren't rare enough to become collectible.

Good luck in the search. It's worth it.

 

The only 2 things you REALLY need to know!!

 

Pricing for 430's has just started easing. I can tell you pricing currently is still higher than it was 24 months ago...I would say 3-4 years from now, they might be in the 80's...right now there is nothing decent under $115k, even for older ones with higher mileage...

 

kevin:
good things come to those who wait!

 

You have a lot of company. People have been coming on here for years wanting to know when 430s would go sub 100K. Some have been predicted 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012......you get the picture. I can tell you 05s have been pretty stable since 2009. Newer ones have come down during the same time frame as expected. 458s are too expensive to bring much pressure on prices from above and 360s are too stable underneath to allow 430s to get much, if any, cheaper. How long do you expect to live?

Dave

 

Wholesale prices:

2005 coupe:
02/07/13 RIVRSIDE Regular $116,000 11,382 Avg BLACK 8G A Yes
02/08/13 PA Regular $118,500 11,233 Avg BLACK 8G 6 Yes
02/14/13 PA Regular $111,500 22,073 Below YELLOW 8G M No
03/14/13 PA Regular $120,000 11,722 Above CORSARED 8G P Yes

2005 spider, one is almost a year old:


05/30/12 PALM BCH Regular $122,000 15,461 Above RED 8G A Yes
06/21/12 PA Regular $132,500 9,152 Above BLACK 8G P Yes
07/17/12 HOUSTON Regular $108,000 29,029 Avg Red NON N Yes
01/31/13 PHOENIX Regular $108,000 23,515 Avg RED 8G A Yes
02/06/13 PALM BCH Regular $110,000 14,563 Avg RED 8G A No
02/19/13 ORLANDO Regular $112,000 16,878 Avg SILVER 8G M Yes

It looks like people are paying more for the coupe???

 

Hey Kevin,
Welcome to FChat.

If your budget is $80k, and you want a car in this calendar year, I'd recommend a nice example of a 360. If you can swing extra money, go for the F430.

I was in your shoes (I am looking at a spider) and I was dead set on the 360 because I had fixed my budget at $100k. When I realized that an incremental cost of $20k (so $120k total) could get me into a decent F430 Spider, I decided to go for it. It's not a stretch for me financially, I just upped the budget I set for myself. My ultimate plan was to go 360-F430-458 Italia. This way, I skip the 360 step within my timeframe, and people generally agree that the F430 is an awesome car. The 360 is also an amazing car, but the F430 (at least to me) is worth the extra money. So, in the end, I'll end up with the newer car at the higher acquisition cost, but it may have lower maintenance costs and will probably settle out at a "salvage value" / end of term value which would be higher than the 360 I would get.

As was said before, ultimately, it's up to you. If you can afford the F430, the general advice is to go for the F430. If you cannot afford the F430, then the 360 is still a great choice - both are epic cars and you're in for a lot of fun.

As far as depreciation, I would agree that on both the F430 and the 360, there isn't a lot of compelling evidence to point towards any MAJOR declines in values from here on out. They'll drop a little each year, but like The Mayor said, it's because of mileage and condition mostly.

Whatever you do, don't buy a crappy Ferrari. It'll cost you more to keep it on the road than the extra money you would have spent to buy a decent example in the first place. F430 cars currently priced less than $100k are great examples of cars to avoid.

EDIT: One last thing: don't be afraid of a mid-mileage example of either car (>20k miles) as long as the car was well maintained, and wasn't used as an exotic-car rental machine. These mid-mileage cars are great ways to save on the front end, as long as you're comfortable with the compromise(s).

 

It usually doesn't matter the make or model, depreciation hits bottom at 20 years old and either plateaus there or starts to slightly rise. I wouldn't expect the 430 to be any different given the production numbers.

 

I did exactly this.
Was looking at 360 spiders then pulled the trigger on a 430 spider - couldn't be happier.

 

you can wait until the 430's get below 80k and then kick yourself all the way to your grave because of all the years you missed out on driving a great car, or you can get a 360 now. Your choice, I waited 10+ years to have enough cash to buy a 328GTS and when the time came I jumped up to a 360 (really by accident and frustration at not finding a 328 once I had enough cash) and I am super upset at all the years I waited, I could have been driving a Ferrari if only I had been willing to borrow a little bit of money.

The last point I have is that in my opinion, if you are worried about depreciation, you really can't afford a Ferrari, its a car not a investment and cars lose value.

 

I understand the concern for depreciation. The real answer is general market trends really do not matter that much and can not be predicted...it's a matter of individual cars, their condition and service history, options, and the motivations of individual buyers and sellers (including dealers). My long standing advice: Drive these cars. While you are driving 360s and 430s mix in a nice 550 or 575. Drive a CS and a Scud. Find the model and car that speaks to you. Buy the very best conditioned example of that car with the most complete service records you can find. Insist on a PPI or a trusted delaer with a long track record. Do not max out your budget...keep a reserve. And then drive your new car and enjoy it...depreciation be damned.
Selah

 

agree on cars being not an investment.
However, if you are concerned about depreciation, there are a couple of things you can do to minimize the "loss".

get the 360 - most of depreciating is "done"
get the 360CS - the market for this car have been flat for about a year now.

the 430 is a better car but I think its depreciation curve hasn't flattened out yet.

drive it less? I wouldn't go this route.

 

Buy an $80k F430 and then what will you do when the bill comes for the deferred maintenance?

Price alone will not get you a good F430.

Don't bother with the 360CS, that is ripe for further downside

 

I say stick with the 360 and get a ferrari now... you are not going to get a decent 430 for anything under 115 to 120... I bought my car last year and last year you couldn't get something decent for anything under 125 to 130. and the hopes of ever finding a decent 430 for under 80 is never!

 

Answer to this is simple....You only want to spend 80K, w CA tax lic. That means a 360.
No F430 is going for $100K, that does not have some issue, or very high miles/deferred maintenance, and then you still need about 10% additional for tax/lic, and an additional $10K
for any service needed, upgrades, wheels, etc. You still need about 120K...
I saw one F430 go for just under 100K a while back, it had somewhere over 60K miles,
and while it may have been a great car, and maybe needed nothing, it is a rarity.

Say you get a 360 for $70K, otd you are at $77K, plus at least $6K available for any work
that you may need, so spend the money today, enjoy today, get back 80-90 % of your well bought 360 in a few years and upgrade to whatever you fancy then.

Enjoy life and the Ferrari experience now, the 360 is a fine gateway Ferrari.

 

Rule of thumb is modern Ferraris bottom out at roughly 1/3 of sticker. However, it may take 10 to 12 years to hit bottom. This is particularly true of F360s spiders, which held their value for a very long time.

Notice I'm basing this on sticker, which does not include any premiums the first buyer paid for being the first to fart in the drivers seat.

Dale

 

Reread what the OP wrote: he says he is patient and is willing to wait until the 430 is under $100k. Telling him to buy a 360 now doesn't really address his issue.

It is hard to see 430 coupes in average condition dropping below $100k in the near term however if they depreciate 10%/ annum and we assume a $130k current price then the OP is looking at a date in 2015-2016 to get a 430.

 

I read it thoroughly. Now go back and read how the OP talks about maybe having to get a 360. If he wants a 360, no reason to wait. The OP is asking for input and he does not have the budget for a F430 right now, so how do you plan on addressing his so called "issue" ? Send him the missing $ 30/40K ?

I would like a Scud - but I do not have the budget for it, so I enjoy my 360 TODAY.
He can't get a F430 right now, if he wants to wait 3-4 years until maybe F430 drop to his budget, great. As many others are saying get a well bought 360 now, enjoy it, and trade up later.

 

Actually, even 348s and 355s have not gotten to 1/3 and they are probably the worst of the 8 cylinders at least. Sticker on a 360 coupe when it came out was about 130K. I don't see them going to 45K. 430 coupes were mostly in the 180-195K range in 2005. I don't think 60-65K is in the cards.

Dave

 

Lol 1/3 sticker price? Show me where? That is ridiculous! That would mean a CS would go for 60k a 430 about the same and a scuderia go for 100k.... Like I said before show me!!!!

 

They get there at 15-20 years old. For examples, look at 348's and 355's which are both approaching or past 20 years old and both can be had around 1/3 sticker give or take depending on mileage and condition. There is still a LOT of depreciation left to happen on 430's, 360's a little less as they're further along. If you want a car that's done depreciating, 308/328/348 are pretty much it for v8's, the rest still have some to go.

That said, it's tough to put a dollar amount on what it's worth to drive the Ferrari you want. I'm pretty sure 355's will depreciate a little more before they level out, but I bought one anyway as it's worth the 10k in depreciation (and probably another 10k in maintenance) to enjoy it for the five years I'd have had to wait to get it if I was worried about it's value.

If your budget is 80k, give it 3 or 4 years. When the 458 successor comes out, 430's will take a step down.