Ferrari F40 market analysis

In a few hours, 1989 Euro-spec #80763 will cross the block at RM's Villa Erba sale. It's the last F40 on the auction radar for the foreseeable future, although that doesn't mean another won't pop up before Monterey. We had two between now and then last year and I'm still waiting for BaT to have their first of the year.

#80763 is a non-cat/non-adjust example with 17,250 km (10,719 mi) and lots of fixings to give buyers little reason to doubt the car (recent Classiche Red Book, Ferrari CoA, Massini report, matching numbers on (at a minimum) the typical major components, books, tools, original exhaust included + Tubi-style fitted). With just that, plus being a Euro-spec, I'd say this is a 2.5m USD car. The wildcard here though is a full restoration on the car last year, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the end value, if at all. RM estimates 2.2-2.8m EUR (2.38-3.03m USD) which is a wider range than normal and probably reflective of their own uncertainty of the restoration's market effect. I haven't gotten around to studying that data yet (this might finally be a good time) but just for fun, put me in the books as thinking the restoration helps more than the repaint hurts and I'll say $2.65m USD equivalent after premium, so something like 2.45m EUR.

Interestingly, this example was apparently not restored just to flip, as 1,500 of those km on the odo came after - not bad for one year with an F40!

Thank you Joe, that's very high praise.

Interesting. Another F40 falls short at online auction. A trend I noted in my report:

https://datadriven.autos/market-analysis/ferrari-f40/#in-person-vs-online-auctions

 

Thanks for the correction; if I could edit my post I would. I was going by the text "A photobook of the Ferrari undergoing restoration accompanies the car, in addition to a report by marque expert Marcel Massini that states that the car had previously been maintained by Ferrari dealer Motor Service of Modena and Graypaul Motors in England". Sloppy writing by RM?

2,286,000 USD for those of us across the ocean. I was surprised that even met reserve until I checked Hammer Price which says it went up without reserve. Marcel, I assume you are in the room - do you have thoughts on the car after seeing it in person?

It obviously sold not only under my prediction, and not only under an average market value for a typical Euro-spec with its characteristics at auction, but also under RM's low estimate. Will make for an interesting data and discussion point for a look at restorations vs. originals.

 

I'd be interested to see what this car would have done at Mecum Kissimmee, for a few different reasons.

 

DK describes this example as 'remarkable' and I have to concur, or at least just from its basic attributes I have to say it's exceptional in the literal sense. Apart from #92560 offered by Girardo @ 749 km earlier this year, DK's car is the lowest mileage on record for a Euro-spec in the whole period of this analysis, going back through 3.5 years of (complete) auction results and nearly 2 years of (select) classifieds listings. In today's mileage-driven market, that means a lot. Girardo's car was POR/POA like DK's. So the best comps we can do involve extrapolation. See the following 3 charts, inclusive through Villa Erba and a preview of the full analysis update coming in a few days:

1) Odometer vs. USD, auctions only. The same chart I posted for Sturm a few pages ago, but updated.
2) Odometer vs. USD, auctions with asking prices this time, only showing examples with <10k km
3) Auction results in USD over the past year and a half, further broken down by odometer

For reference, the top result in these charts is #93308 by InsiderAuctions @ 2,875 km for 2,930,000 USD at the end of April 2023. I think a reasonable extrapolation of any of these charts, even without IA's somewhat mysterious result, indicates that #85192 should fairly fetch above $3m USD. Without an independent condition assessment there's an important variable missing, but assuming it's in excellent shape and knowing it's a non-cat/non-adjust example, with major service out of the way, import cost out of the way, and Classiche certification taken care of, I don't see any reason for DK to accept less than $3.2-3.5m USD.

FYI the three asks above $3m in chart #2 are from Simon Furlonger (UK), Christian Jakob (DE), and Cauley Ferrari (US). I believe you confirmed on this board that the Cauley car (@ 5,395 km) sold a few months ago for $3.1m, while SF's and CJ's are actively listed now with 8,000 km and 8,378 km, respectively. But the Christian Jakob car has Lexan windows! Very cool.
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Did this example avoid receiving the Swiss rear wing by virtue of not being registered and used during its time there?