F8 Tributo: depreciation/stabilization/value appreciation?

Ultimately, the number of F8 sold in the US will be close to the number of 458 sold in the US (roughly 5,000 between 2010 and 2015 based on the NHTSA brake recall data)
Approximately 1,000 to 1,200 F8 per year for a total of 5,000 F8 in the US over the 4-5 year production run.

 

Todd not sure were you are getting your numbers from but they are way off. Ferrari produced over 11k cars last year and the majority of those were in the V8 family (83% are V8) They produced 2265 F8 Last year in Europe alone. (1792 were coupes). According to the annual reports Europe is about 50% of there total. So roughly 5000 F8 were sold in 2021.

https://carsalesbase.com/europe-ferrari-f8/
https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/ferrari-halts-orders-bestselling-f8-tributo-coupe-spider
https://cdn.ferrari.com/cms/network/media/pdf/2022_02_02 - Ferrari FY 2021 Results Press Release.pdf
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2021-full-year-global-ferrari-sales-worldwide/

 

I am speaking of US sales only, and my F8 estimates are only estimates
Regardless, Ferrari will make the same or more F8 as the 458 and 488
F8 will not be "rare" compared to the other mid-engine V8 model runs

 

Got it. So About 1500-1750 F8 sold in US in 2021, if you break down the numbers. I do agree the F8 will not be rare at all. The 488 was estimated to be 10k-15k for its total run and I would speculate the F8 will be close if not more when they are finished late 2023. 2020 was a very low production year due to Covid so that will throw off the total production numbers. However 2022 will beat 2021 numbers and they are pumping out F8 more than anything else.

 

Very few F8's were delivered in the tail end of 2019. 2020 was an odd year with COVID, 2021 was normal, but they cut off orders in the 4th quarter 2021. Deliveries in 2022 will be those ordered in late 2021. To me that doesn't add up to a total number of cars in excess of the total 458 run or the 488, nor does it add up to a "4-5 year production run."

 

It is wishful thinking to expect F8 production numbers to be less than the 458 or 488

 

Yes

 

Don’t forget they are producing them “well into 2023” now. So let’s call it Q4 of 2019 to Q3 of 2023. Since we never know the true numbers and only rough estimates, if they produced 1500 in 2019/2020, 5000 in 2021, 5500 in 2022 and 2500 in 2023 that would be 14,500 total production.

 

Your math is totally wrong. Speaking to the owner of my local dealership due to Covid, supply chain issues and the short run, 2020-2022, there will be far fewer f8s. I’m not saying it is a limited car but many more 458s and 488s built

 

no. F8 production will exceed 458 and 488 combined.

 

Since I have a F8, I totally agree with myself above.

 

Look at the annual reports for the data. Europe releases actual production numbers so it’s easy to figure out. Ferrari sold 5492 cars in Europe in 2021. Out of those 2265 were F8. (These are actual data points and not estimates) That is 41% of the cars Ferrari sold in Europe in 2021 were F8. If you apply 41% to the total sale of 11,155 you get 4573 F8 were sold In 2021. (Just rough estimates) According to the Q1 report for 2022 Ferrari shipped 3251 units compared to 2771 in 2021. They are on pace for a 17% increase this year. It is all in the financial reports. They are continuing the F8 for the remainder of 2022 and “well into 2023”.

 

Ferrari's production capacity now far outstrips when the 458 and 488 were in production. Bigger company, different goals.

 

Don’t forget lots of stockholders to now appease!!

 

Show me the exact data then with actual numbers otherwise it’s just your conjecture. I’m not interested in trying to extrapolate.

 

Click on the links above. It’s right there but if you need it spoon fed:
European sales numbers: https://carsalesbase.com/europe-ferrari-f8/
Ferrari annual report: https://cdn.ferrari.com/cms/network/media/pdf/2022_02_02 - Ferrari FY 2021 Results Press Release.pdf

here is a simple summary: https://cdn.ferrari.com/cms/network/media/pdf/2022_02_02_-_ferrari_-_fy_2021_results_presentation.pdf

2022 vs 2021: https://cdn.ferrari.com/cms/network/media/pdf/2022_05_04 - Ferrari Q1 2022 Results Press Release.pdf

you wanted data there it is. Just click and read and you have the exact data with numbers.

 

The carsalesbase.com data is alignment with my point (yes I know it is just for Europe). But I think it is illustrative of the F8 sales proportionally. It shows 2019 F8 sales (41 cars), 2020 (747 cars), 2021 (2,265 cars) and through April 2022 (548 cars) The 2022 thru April number is 629 fewer units than the same timeframe in 2021. That shows that 2021 is the peak year and it is likely 2022 will be much less than 2021 from this data and actuals. Since there are no more new orders and the only F8's yet to be assembled are those ordered many months ago, production into 2023 is unlikely. It looks like there will be 3 years and 3 months of sales (if the sales keep up till end of this year), with 2021 as the peak. I just got this from your data.

Other interesting data from that link is on the sales numbers for the 488 in Europe. Sales started in 2015 and did not end until 2021. That is five full years and a partial in 2015 and 2021. During that time, 7,361 488's were sold which included 1,207 in 2020. hmmmm

Let me know where my logic is off. Thanks

 

Precisely. The 458 was in production Ferrari did not make more than 7500 cars worldwide. Now they make 15000.

 

The main thing to remember is just one thing regarding production numbers going forward. Ferrari now is a publicly traded company that tells you all you need to know on production going forward ,more units and higher priced ones as well its all about Earnings per share that's it!

 

This type of stuff is what everyone obsesses over on the Rennlist GT3 and GT3 RS forum. F8 should do well longer term as last of breed--certainly better than 488. Going forward, I would be more concerned with the rapid development of hybridization tech and how quickly the GTB/S will be eclipsed in capability.

 

Not so sure . Even though the F8 may share a 4 year build cycle with its inferior sibling both 2020 and 2021 yielded very few cars secondary to supply constraints and Covid . Nevertheless, the F8 is the best of the bunch except sound (458) and I’ve owned them all.

 

FWIW, we were looking at Bentley's yesterday and got onto the topic of Ferraris with the salesman. When I told him I had a F8, he said that he was talking with some Ferrari salespeople. They indicated that the low mileage F8's are selling at or near original price, while the 296's are going about $60k below original sticker due to the electrical issues. Of course, this is totally hearsay and subjective without evidence. But made me glad I did not take the 296 allocation when asked.

 

F8’s have held up really well, it’s a great vehicle and I doubt I’m ever selling my Spider. But the 296 is just a whole different level of performance, steering feel, and refinement. Sadly it has its own issues with regard to other things, not sure how it plays out from here. Ferrari did what was best for their shareholders with insane pricing jumps but 450-500k MSRPs basically guaranteed weak resale value. I won’t get into the reliability, hybrid V6/haptic button concerns…..I think that will eventually get resolved.

 

Pretty well the case, although I would recommend you go out the troops that recommended you chase a 296 allocation for a round of decimation.

 

Keeping my F8 for a long long time
Rejected 296s allocation and on floor many times. Not for me.
I might add SF90 but will wait a little more but won't replace the F8.