F50 Valuation: A Spectrum

Well they are moving up..
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/record-breaking-sale-of-1995-ferrari-f50-for-%E2%82%AC5-5-million-by-prive-market-1033329610

 

Paul, what we have here is an uncorroborated sale of an alleged 12,745 kms F50 featured in a writeup with no disclosed chassis number, erroneous elementary specification data, location stated as "not provided", said to be sold entirely in mythical cryptocurrency, self-reported as a PR press release by the eponymous Prive Market based in the Czech Republic, and not reported or verified by classic.com. Anyone remotely dispassionate can draw their own conclusions as to the validity of this post, and astute market players and prospective buyers will dismiss this story as just that, a story, with no bearing on the market.

Karim,

Allow me to give a slightly different perspective based on my trading of F50s for the past 20 plus years.

Firstly, I have no affiliation with RM, or the current owner of the 8,556 miles F50 103921 coming to auction next month https://rmsothebys.com/auctions/mo24/lots/r0206-1995-ferrari-f50/ which you're using as the comparison basis for your F50 Valuation Formula. In summation you're not only essentially pointing out why it's auction result will be significantly less than what you personally perceive to be top of the market, you're prescribing your formula for what it's to-be-determined result means a "good" F50 should be worth. Whenever a car comes to auction, if it is utterly pristine, low miles and ticks every box, owner/sellers will be at pains to associate the high results with their cars, on the other hand if it is less than pristine with significant miles, owner/sellers will be at pains to distance the low results from their cars, I've seen this a hundred times in my long & storied career, quite understandable and business as usual in the market.

To be fair, anyone reading your thread ought to be advised or understand that, you are the owner of multiple F50s as prolifically posted by yourself upon the F50 Tread, your The Ferrari Bloodline thread, and your F50 Perfection thread, so your position is undeniably one of not inconsiderable bias, and threads like these should be taken in that context.

Most of the points you make are well-known accepted wisdom in comparing any one Ferrari against another, generally, everyone knows that every car market has a range (spectrum as you eloquently put it), there are cars that are at the bottom of the range, the top range, and everywhere in-between, we all agree on this. If we're truly being objective about the F50 market, we can also all agree what the numbers are by simply collecting the data for both public & private sales. However, what some including yourself apparently don't agree on is what this numbers 'should' be, because, some such as yourself have a clear bias and want numbers to be a certain way. Buyers always want numbers to be low, owners/sellers always want numbers to be high. This is where theories, speculation, advanced hypothetical formulas, and "good guesses" come into play, all of which are quite unlike verifiable data of actually sold cars which represent undeniable market fact.
For example, per this database https://www.classic.com/m/ferrari/f50/ the only F50s that have sold over $5m are the ones with mileages under 1,000, 103501 with 834 miles and 103274 with 625 miles. Fact. No hyperbole, no talking the market up or down. As you say, "this (thread) is not a science but good insights", true, it's the viewpoint of someone who has the motivation to promote a higher market or talk the market up.

Let's look at 103921 objectively. It's a USA F50, one of the 55 or so produced (or is that 60 Marcel?) which has been enjoyed for 8,556 miles, and has had repaints, albeit by Ferrari themselves - in this case, Ferrari of Houston's bodyshop. The fact that the original paint is no longer there is indeed a factor and deserves a price discount as I agree. But to dogmatically establish said discount at 20% ignores the fact that the market is a free one, is often unpredictable, and always does what it will. I have sold F40s repainted by Zanasi at a zero % discount because the buyer actually wanted a car that looked better than period paint and preferred then fresh paint of the factory-affiliate. I'm not saying that would happen here with this much more valuable car, but it could be 20%, 10% percent, or something in-between, you just can't ascribe formulas to the market and have it stick every time, the market is always full of surprises. Your total discount of a very specific 31% (!) is flawed because it assumes any "good" F50 is $5m, which just isn't true as market data proves, unless they are sub-1,000 miles, multiple great F50s have sold well under $5m in recent times. So, your notion therefore that if 103291 sells for $4m at auction, then a "good normal" would be $5.7m is terminally flawed as the discount could be different, the sale price could be different, and the basis of what you view as a "good" F50 is valued at isn't $5m. In fairness to you, you do give the disclaimer that your post's approach is "approximate and subjective" and I certainly agree with that.

As regards your comment about the car going to Cavallino numerously to get Platinum being rather a "nuisance", in the USA there are lots of concours hobbyists who repeatedly show cars at Cavallino, an event that you yourself have recently held in apparently high esteem, and, the reason it won multiple times when LB owned it, was that it showed like a new F50 as agreed in a bygone era by judges who actually knew what they were looking at, as simple as that. Since those days though, the car seems to have been enjoyed which accounts fr itls less than pristine condition.

By the way, as regards the luggage, if one must have red insert fabric material luggage you can get a set here:https://collectorstudio.com/product/1995-ferrari-f50-luggage-set/ and at other places I know of besides.

From where I sit being involved in the buying & selling of F50s over the past few decades, to be helpful to anyone reading, from a dispassionate & objective viewpoint I would add:

Values can affected by market saturation, and by that I mean, as we have seen with numerous makes & models, certain cars go in and out of favor when most of the people in certain circles have acquired them, this can reduce demand relative to supply, they are after all non-essential objects of desire, automotive art, if you will. This is another reason why market formulas will often not play out exactly as they are made up, if anything, the market an be difficult to predict, which is why actual sold results always speak to where we are in the market.

Values are affected by the ever-changing ownership landscape we are experiencing, as Ferrari's CEO just announced, 30% of Ferrari’s new clients are under the age of 40, and I am seeing this with buyers of everything including F40, F50, Enzo, La Ferrari etc. Today's buyers are younger, more forward-thinking & progressive, and more experience and events-focused, they want to do Cavalcade and itchier Ferrari rallies etc and are not too worried about perfection or if they get stone chips. This YOLO group are not financial speculators, and this affects these so-called market formulas as some of them will pay up even for non-original colors thereby skewering established formulas, ask me how I know. Also, this younger generation don't always want to shift gears and I have seen clients ask me for an Enzo for that reason alone, as time goes by, how many of the younger generation will want to shift?

Values are also effected by the location or venue where the auction is happening. Pebble Beach can bring interesting results, but then, after Pebble Beach, sometimes those results aren't sustained or duplicated in the market, so taking them as the new benchmark is often not reliable, we really do have to take values on a car-by-car basis as time goes on and the feel for what clients will pay is always changing for all of the aforementioned reasons.

Values are affected by how many people happen to be in the market for one, and can even be affected by who happens to be looking for one, and I submit that as the cars get more expensive, the pool of people who want one obviously diminishes, not just because of the numbers but because at these levels people have many many Supercar and Hypercar alternatives today, this IMO is what has curbed the ascension of F50s values and may actually cause them to reduce somewhat in future.

 

Marc Tauber words...

“Original cars should be worth much more than restored cars. Once the North American buyer gets more in tune [with the thinking in Europe] this will right itself. Some buyers are still looking for the over-shined, over-plated, and overdone. Today’s buyer is often someone who doesn’t want a car restored to perfect.

 

I'm shocked that any one would do anything by completely dismiss that drivel.

103291 is a US-spec car with 5,000 miles and was sold >$5mm at Broad Arrow Monterey in 2022. And others have sold >$5mm, as you're surely aware. But yes, in general, sales >$5mm are rare and on the high end of the F50 price spectrum.

In a rapidly rising, or 'toppy' market, it's common to see induced supply, where you'll see cars that would "never be for sale" all of a sudden become "well, at that price"...

It feels like every year, the 'market' holds its breath for Pebble Beach, waiting to see what the results are... and then, without fail, regardless of the results - up, down or sideways - the 'market' goes back to whatever it was doing before... Very rarely does a single auction sale result in a meaningful change of direction for the broader market for any one car.

I have to disagree here, as the number of people that can afford these cars - at these prices - has grown at a rate that far outpaces not only the supply of F50s, but the expanding broader market of super and hypercars (new Bugattis, Koenigseggs, et al). I also feel like the broader collector car market still represents a relative value when compared to some other collectibles, such as art, watches and sports memorabilia and in general could (should?) continue on a generally upward trajectory, if for no other reason that to keep pace with the relative price some pay for old, stinky sneakers

 

How much does the color yellow add in value to that F50? Lets say hypothetically you have the car in the exact same condition but one is regular red and the other one is yellow.

 

I'd say about 15%, based on past instances as well as current offers.

 

Marc Tauber of The Stables Ltd. in New Jersey?

You make my point for me, well sort of, there are so many more Supercars & Hypercars in this ever-changing market also chasing the new wealth, in fact there are many new cars being launched all the time and all this keeps pace with the increase in wealthy individuals, many clients tell me: "Oh Joe, I'd love to buy that F50 or Enzo but I've got 4 new cars coming from Ferrari plus another 3 from other manufacturers etc." and this affects the market.

I'm not as profuse with the dispensation of premiums, in my case using some recent Enzo activity as a basis, I'd say 10%.

 

Scottsdale, Arizona

 

One-and-the-same, but perhaps you should also quote what he said in the same article www.hagerty.co.uk which is even more interesting IMO:

“The Covid bubble is over, and we have returned to pre-Covid prices”.

Ed Waterman expands on this with:

“The 2024 market is fairly stable after some slight price reductions over about 12 months – a time when seller supply outpaced buyer demand. These adjustments have been made and have been largely accepted.”

 

Some people may confuse 103291 (Assembly #20378) with 103921 (Assembly #20851).

Marcel Massini

 

it
This part has no relevance to the part I was referring to.. so pre Covid would be 2019? I cannot think off one F cars that is trading at 2019 level’s.. looking at the recent sales , records are being broken again , time after time , 288’s f50’s and the F40 .. they keep moving up year after year ..

 

When Marc Tauber said "The Covid bubble is over, and we have returned to pre-Covid prices” he wasn't referring to 288/F40/F50/Enzo per se, he's speaking of certain vintage Ferraris he deals in, many of which have in fact returned to pre Covid levels, you'll want to study the overall market a bit closer to understand what he is saying. Given that you hold his comment about original cars being valuable in high regard, I feel sure you'll hold his comment about the market in high regard also.

Ed Waterman's comment “The 2024 market is fairly stable after some slight price reductions over about 12 months – a time when seller supply outpaced buyer demand, these adjustments have been made and have been largely accepted.” is more relevant to the 288/F40/F50/Enzo.

You, like others, often assert higher numbers based on misguided internet posts, or speak of records being broken but do so without a chassis number or any means of independent corroboration. When serious prospective buyers are seeking to find out what Ferrari Supercars are really trading for, they firstly go to a place like classic.com to establish what cars are actually selling for in the public domain, then they call a handful of licensed specialists worldwide who have the experience of actively trading these cars for decades to the present day in order to establish what cars are trading for privately. Ask me how I know this is the preferred pricing process. This puts prospective buyers in a position of verifiable realistic knowledge, and allows them to avoid all the mythical internet forum hypothesis based on little more than wishful thinking.

 

Just out of interest, where do you see the price of the original, low mileage F50 car compared to the one just sold? Thanks 6.5 - 7 million USD? I know the recent 288 GTO numbers have been around these numbers

 

I think the real value is important, if the client paid over the market value, some will say it's an outliner and should be dismissed.. I on the other hand would take all results and value my cars on all metrics.. The F40 which you mention is interesting, mileage on the high side ( 13,000 km ) but condition is meant to be nice..I have have always valued an F40 2 - 2.5 less in value to a GTO, due to so many cars made and there is always a large pool of cars avaiblable, so at 2.2 USD its about right .. 5 - 5.5 USD for a similar mileage and condition GTO and very similar to a F50... so maybe the market is right in the valuation of this F50... I know if I owned a super low mileage F50, which ticked every box... I would now hold its value at 6.5 - 7 USD based on this sale..

 

I know from a meeting that I had in the US earlier this month, that the pool of investable F50's and 288 GTO's that fit the criteria for investing, the views were less that 5 % of the cars made of each variant would be classified as the top of the investment tree. thats 18 F50's and 14 288's... put that in context with say the F40.
and you see why the command the money they do.

 

https://www.thesupercarblog.com/ferrari-f50-sells-for-5-5-million-at-auction-a-new-record/