F355 Market | Page 203 | FerrariChat

F355 Market

Discussion in '348/355' started by Robb, May 19, 2015.

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  1. tres55

    tres55 F1 Rookie
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    I've also gone through all the BaT listings and sales. There's nothing there that suggests to me Berlinetta's aren't trending upwards and much faster than the Spiders.

    GTS's seem to be doing very well also. The last two sorted GTS's that sold at auction in Japan were $150k USD equivalent. They were then put on dealer lots and sold quickly again obviously for a profit.

    I know because I bid up to $130k on two GTS's out there and one Berlinetta and lost on all of them by quite a bit. I was baffled at first but the reality is the cars are hot right now and it's simply supply and demand. North America especially...almost 400 million people and there's maybe 2-3 Berlinettas for sale at any given time.
     
  2. tres55

    tres55 F1 Rookie
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    For anyone looking for a GTS out there...if you rely on these valuation estimates you'll be left on the sidelines IMO.

    Personally have never found Hagerty to be a reliable source of current market values except maybe for insurance reasons. Especially not in the current market dynamic.
     
  3. Dave Bertrand

    Dave Bertrand Formula Junior
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    The Japan market, US market, European market, Australian market, UK market are all different both in supply and in demand as well as economic conditions. You cannot pull one transaction from one market and conclude anything relevant. That is false.

    LOL, all you guys keep pulling onesies and twosies to try to justify your erroneous impression that prices are through the roof. Why don't you look at BROAD data, and share it?
     
  4. Dave Bertrand

    Dave Bertrand Formula Junior
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    People love to bash Hagerty any time they report values that you disagree with. I've been reading that crap for the 17 years I've been active in the car hobby. Hagerty valuations are based upon actual auction data as well as other sources. Go to Hagerty's website and read about how they determine prices. I assure you they analyze a hell of a lot more data and actual transaction prices than anyone here does.

    Second, what do you mean by "especially not in the current market dynamic"? What about this market do you think throws Hagerty off? Hagerty reports based on data, regardless of what kind of market we're in. You'll note that all last year until September or so, prices were flat. Prices jumped late in the year probably because people became more optimistic about the Covid outlook and many made a lot of money in the stock market. The data reflects the market.
     
  5. ShineKen

    ShineKen F1 World Champ
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    Did you forget to add in the $5k BAT buyer fee??

    If one is looking at data pre-fall 2020 in isolation with what has been going on in the financial world, you are making an incomplete analysis imo. You have to consider the money printing going around. PPP loans were in effect late summer. It is infusion of helicopter money like we’ve never seen before and you cannot discount the level of inflation stirring in our asset markets.

    I believe there is surplus cash and people are looking to buy rare desirable assets. Without financial pressure to sell, the supply of desirable cars coming to market are limited. Supply/demand mechanisms will drive up prices.
     
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  6. ShineKen

    ShineKen F1 World Champ
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    There is no BROAD data to quote. We can only decipher what the broad data is by pulling the trends here and there from all over the world and the conclusion we’re drawing is the market is significantly up the past 6 months.

    If you have data that shows differently for the past 6 months for anywhere in the world, please link it.
     
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  7. johnk...

    johnk... F1 World Champ
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    Just be careful. Here is the 206 Dino history. Those who though the market would head up forever and bought the best examples in 2015 are under water by $200k today. Like I said a couple of pages ago, there will be a top (when??) and the rapid rise indicates over exuberance to me.

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  8. ShineKen

    ShineKen F1 World Champ
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    Notice we never bother to link Australian ads? That’s because the prices are already out of this world well beyond anywhere else, therefore irrelevant to most of us in North America.

    UK, Europe, Japan price trends have been very similar to ours for the past 5 years.
     
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  9. ShineKen

    ShineKen F1 World Champ
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    As long as the top ends significantly higher than where things started... how much of that matters?
     
  10. calder1

    calder1 F1 Rookie
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  11. tres55

    tres55 F1 Rookie
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    Cool. I guess the cars selling for $50k over Hagerty's valuations are just anomalies. That's like 10+ anomalies in the last month.

    Hagerty uses whatever public data it can find I'm sure. You really think they have someone dedicated to every car model searching out sales as well as we do on this thread?

    I'm not disagreeing that prices may very well come down...but like ShineKen said, and as many other respected economists are warning, accelerated inflation is coming...and that is the real anomaly in the "market dynamic" that is different from a year ago.

    I'll bet you a 355 that GTB valuations will go up 50% before they come down 50%. :D
     
  12. johnk...

    johnk... F1 World Champ
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    #5062 johnk..., Feb 27, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2021
    Depends on how deep the drop is after the top. In '89 a GTO sold for $13.3M. In 1993 one sold for $3.5M. The guy who paid 13.3M could have done better by investing the $13.5M in the S&P 500. That investment would be worth about $285M today bases on a 10% annual return. Last time a GTO sold in 2018 it was $70M based on the chart below (Aug, 2020) . Like I showed with the 206 Dino, guys who bought at the top are down as much as $200k. I don't know about you but I sure don't want to to put $150k into a car, or more, and a year later have it worth $100k or less. Maybe I can hold it until the price rises again,if it rises again. But what if I need to dump it? Funny things about cars. If you sell it for a profit you are supposed to pay capital gains tax on it. But if you sell it as a loss, you can't right it off against other gains. But let's face it. To a lot of Ferrari owners $50k is pocket change, right?


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  13. 355dreamer

    355dreamer F1 World Champ
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    We should spend more time talking about Bitcoin...
     
  14. ShineKen

    ShineKen F1 World Champ
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    You’re talking about cars as an investment. In the case of the 355, I don’t think it is and a buyer shouldn’t be looking at one from that perspective. However, if you just WANT a 355 (a good one), you could be paying more than you would like and it could possibly get worse if you continue to hesitate.

    If you can own something you enjoy and not lose money, that’s already a big plus as cars tend to be depreciating assets. It’s all personal choice when it comes to buying something or using that money to invest. Heck, auto interest rates are sub 2%. Take out a damn loan :).

    The cars you mentioned are probably in the investment realm and move in increments larger than what the 355 is worth entirely.
     
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  15. ShineKen

    ShineKen F1 World Champ
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    @john6k

    For a man who owns 7% yielding 30 year treasury bonds bought in better days, you know damn well 10% annual investment returns are not guaranteed.

    How are treasury bond yields looking these days??

    Today, one could argue buying a manual 355 (coupe of course) right now could possibly perform better than the S&P for the next year :).
     
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  16. johnk...

    johnk... F1 World Champ
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    Maybe. But, if the price goes up 50% it only has to drop 33% to come back to where it was.

    Still have some bonds. Moved money into a 3 x S&P ETF in April/May. Don't think a 355 will do as well. Been moving into a 3 x oil ETF for a while now. I think it has a ways to go. It's around $55. Was at $500 Jan 2020. Probably better than a 355. It's already a double since November.*

    * I'm not a professional investor and not qualified to give investment advice. I obviously don't know what I'm doing. Hell, I bought an effing 355 Spider. But at least I bought it near the bottom. :)

    Seriously, yea, if you just want the car buy it. But for me, at $100k to $150k, any 355 doesn't interest me.


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  17. tres55

    tres55 F1 Rookie
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    By that logic then, why have you not sold yours and moved into something that does interest you in that range?

    When investing, if you wouldn't buy it at the current market value, shouldn't you be selling?
     
  18. johnk...

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    No car interests me at those prices.

    If you wouldn't sell it shouldn't you be buying?
     
  19. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Can we just tell johnk he js right and we can all move on?
     
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  20. steved033

    steved033 F1 Veteran
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    what on earth would we argue about then?

    sjd
     
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  21. tres55

    tres55 F1 Rookie
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    I am and have bought. I'm looking to add an F1 Berlinetta as well.
     
  22. johnk...

    johnk... F1 World Champ
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    Cancel culture hits Ferrari Chat. :(


    You won't have too much of a problem finding one of them.

    https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?zip=06447&showNegotiable=true&sortDir=ASC&sourceContext=carGurusHomePageModel&distance=50000&sortType=DEAL_SCORE&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d1120#listing=296128515
    $69.9k

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    https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?zip=06447&showNegotiable=true&sortDir=ASC&sourceContext=carGurusHomePageModel&distance=50000&sortType=DEAL_SCORE&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d1120#listing=286706255

    $77k

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    So tell me, where will a gated 355 B be in 2025? I've read here $250k by this summer. What then, $500K by fall, $1M by next Spring? At what point does this start sounding silly to you? I'm not talking about some unicorn with the plastic still on the flood mats. Just a nice, sorted Berlinetta with 10k to 20k miles on it.
     
  23. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    i'm the opposite of cancel culture. but you are literally negating actual sales so what's the point? none of us are negating the lower value sales for crappier cars. curated sold a 355 in south florida for 200k within the past 2 weeks. you are saying its fake news for some reason. the high end of BAT is also fake news? im not the one trying to have it both ways.

    right now in the current markets sticks and F1s are trading like 2 different cars.
     
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  24. bcar1

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    No better example than

    https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1999-ferrari-355gts-f1/

    the gap seems bigger than 360s which had fewer manuals and more f1s- surely it can’t continue if the conversion is as easy as kenneyd says
     
  25. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    A perfect 2002 360 F1 with low miles its about 83,000 right now (sale happened 3 weeks ago) … The same car in stick is about 135

    Cost to convert is about 35k.
     
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