Equity Markets (Tradable Bottom) | Page 4 | FerrariChat

Equity Markets (Tradable Bottom)

Discussion in 'California & Nevada (Northern)' started by Grim Reaper, Sep 30, 2008.

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  1. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    The long term bull market has a very good chance of breaking people.
    7300...is the mark.
    So if you are going to bet on it, always trail the stops...
    The other indicators are not in alignment, which unless they all move to the correct points, tells me we will cut through it like a knife (More like a falling sword).
    We will see.

    Having the Fed state they are willing to go to zero, is just fueling the problems and pulling money from the equity market perpetuating the issues many fold.
    These idiots are destroying the foundation for everything.
    It is going to be really BAD.

    Soon even the old folks will get their pitch forks and torches too, "Tarped and Feather," the politicians.
     
  2. bobafett

    bobafett F1 Veteran

    Sep 28, 2002
    9,193
    Tarped and feather, i like it
     
  3. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    #78 Grim Reaper, Dec 17, 2008
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2008
    9,900 Mark.

    Announcing a new long term multi-year bear in the price of Oil Stocks starting this Friday.
    Do not form a reliance on the price or the dividends of these companies.
    I forsee XOM will warn on Top Line and Bottom line in March 09.
    We have a large long term position in XOM as do some others here.
    Oil is heading to $33-35 in January as I projected and ststed on this forum a while back. I was .31c off the high which was $149.61.
     
  4. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    The market is flat. Scratch 9,800.

    XOM and oil was covered by the news channles yesterday.

    The derivatives’ (options) mean for the Dec SPY contract was 9,800 on Monday.
    It is currently 9000 for the January contract. (This will be reset early January).
    This is zero point where banks/writers/carriers have to pay out on the fewest contracts possible.
    I have seen it not reach the mean three times this decade, out ninety-six occasions which points to some fundamental problems with system such as liquidity, no one literally on the desks or combination thereof.
    Usually the Treasury will buy futures on the CBOE or Federal Reserve will place a repurchase contract in the market to provide liquidity.
    EG. The contango between oil today and oil Monday is a full $7.
    The spreads point to lack of market hedgers/speculators and liquidity.

    The volatility index formed a head shoulders pattern and broke which should have been extremely bullish for the equity markets.
    Most issues and the indexes are sitting at their fifty day average and have been flat, which is bullish.
    The $DJIA market has completed a large wave count five of five which is bullish.
    The current put call ratio is bearish.
    The 200 Day moving average is 11,000.
    Treasury bonds are in the largest bubble ever and currently have significant interest rate risk. Bill Gross & EL Erain (Pimco) see this unwinding badly.
    Thirty-year is currently traded at 140.453 and generally is trading between 98-102. In other words the buyers could lose 40% of tradable face.
    It is a question of when they are going to move.
    I would presume to speculate that it will all unwind within a short span of time producing a one day wonder.

    1n 1929, the cycle low was on the 20th.
    This market has been almost exact mirror image with the exception of the credit markets which exceeded it in March.
    It begs to question whether there will be a Santa Claus rally.

    Merry Chirstmas.

    Heading to Santa Barbara tonight for a while.
     
  5. 4i2fly

    4i2fly Formula 3

    Apr 16, 2004
    1,333
    SF, Bay Area
    "The market is flat. Scratch 9,800," Do you mean 9,900 since that was the mark? If it wasn't for GE's debt probable downgrade we could have probably had a decent rally before the end of year!
     
  6. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    Yes, Treasuries were beginning to unwind right before that news. Pull up a five day chart. The timing is MORE than certainly suspect...Remains to be seen, but I sure would not want to be a bear here.

    I would not want to be the S&P rating as I sure there will be some more accute reporting on rating agencies as there should be.
     
  7. 4i2fly

    4i2fly Formula 3

    Apr 16, 2004
    1,333
    SF, Bay Area
    There seems to be broad based rally as well as a rally in oil and $ which are normally divergent. The news still grim and I am wondering if it has any legs?
     
  8. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    #83 Grim Reaper, Jan 6, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2009
    There have been quite a few views in both sections in regard to the two threads that I have started.
    Somewhere near a thousand a month on each.

    My viewpoint still has not changed from the last time I posted here.
    Frankly, I have been busy with some work, estate affairs and working on my golf game.

    This is bull run inside of a long term bear market, heading to 11,000, before turning over.
    The market has been a liquidating market, created significant support and has been institutionally accumulated.
    In case you were wondering why it has been flat.

    It is likely that we might have a slight pull back into next Wendesday.

    Treasuries peaked as I predicted.
    The Federal Reserve is now trying to smoke them out by purchasing MBS and unfreeze the credit markets.

    Fundamentally, IBM and AA, DOW components, are laying off significantly...Not good for anyone.

    Dollar, gold and oil remain to be seen. I think it is money just chasing money at the moment or hedging for short term liquidity. Can't hide in Treasuries (no yield) or Muni's/Corporates (no liquidity).
    There is limited exacerbation in any one direction, to mitigate risk/reward.
     
  9. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    Wednesday is here.
    Textbook inside day.

    Buying on the close and on the open tomorrow.
    Let's see if the Fed can break us out.

    As I stated yesterday and covered by the news today, many of the world banks that to big to fail/save are under pressure.
    It would not surprise me more not to see simultaneous Worldwide monitory intervention from Washington, Tokyo, London, Germany and the EU.
     
  10. norcal2

    norcal2 F1 Veteran

    I like volatility, either way the market goes, last monday i picked up SKF, FAZ, QID as a hedge against bad news they have done well...
     
  11. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    Stopped out for small gain on the long side. There was not enough juice to even fill the gap above 8,340.

    I would open up a straddle; however there is risk of not being able to collect on the contracts from the counterparties who issue them. The banks above.

    There is no capital in the system. We are 2T short worldwide at the moment just to fund the banks. This forcing the sale of anything for cash.

    In absence, of capital, this bodes ill for EVERYTHING. Hyper deflation and the markets crashing are very high probability at the moment.


    The Democratic plan is ridiculous and more of the same subsidies and socialism to a narrow few.

    Create good paying jobs and hire all those out of work (multi-millions) who want work and the system will heal itself.
    Banks will have deposits, payment streams will be made, credit markets will right themselves, housing will eventually settle and you will have consumption.
     
  12. bobafett

    bobafett F1 Veteran

    Sep 28, 2002
    9,193
    Largely agree, but hyperdeflation? Not sure I follow your rationale there.
     
  13. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    Not enough cash to feed the system and consistant increasing payment streams.
    Therefore sale of anything to obtain cash just to obtain operating capital, survival, etc...
    Forces sale of assets, for what cash is out there.

    The largest Fed member banks and largest depository insititutions are net negative (more going out, than in).

    The regional banks that borrow from them are going to vaporize.

    Irronically, the U.S Government has been taking most of the available cash.
     
  14. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    http://ferrarichat.com/forum/showpost.php?p=138035239&postcount=45
    9-16-2008

    That being said...pay structures will be changed to a substantial discount or their will be layoffs...There is a big dislocation with reality.

    We all have to revisit what constitutes real value and worth in everything. In this, environment, the pay structure, in this instance, far exceeds the structure that needs to be met to zero out the mathematical solution. In other words, the revenues no longer support the excesses. Absence, of a serious change of equation in fiscal (keynesian/supply side economics) or monetary (demand side economics) or new debt issuance, in the end, the settling of the math will ultimately and always is the final end game solution. They should be happy they have a secure government job, can feed/provide heat/sheler for their families and reasonable living...whatever the pay.


    On another note...This is what I think of BAC/MER and this was bothering me late last night.
    Awful run investment firm, BAC (garbage) + MER (failing extremely poor losing garbage) = a bigger pile of B.S.
    Ironically, this guy uses the very same exact analogy...Yes, that is Henry Bloggent, formally the Dot Com Analyst of MER, interviewing him. lol.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...leh,gs,c,wb,wm
    I personally think they merged to make them, "to big to fail, " in an attempt to stick us with the bill.
    To obscure the books.
    The firms have two completely different cultures.
    BAC has done way to many mergers and historically 90% of single mergers fail.
    BAC's balance, "as reported," left a lot to be desired before this.



    In answer, to which firms are safe... there are some, based on todays assumptions of value, assuming what they are reporting on the books is the truth and they further are not playing the SPV/SPE shell game.
    What bothers me most is that some of these national institutions in this day in age are very much lying (commiting fraud) about the marks of their books, as they clearly do not correspond to reality and have not, for quite sometime.
    I can see it plain as you walk.
    Look out below.
     
  15. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    #90 Grim Reaper, Feb 11, 2009
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2009
    As a few have observed here, I have provided more than a half dozen written pieces of commentary in regard to Merrill Lynch and Bank of America.

    The press covered this issue over many weeks after verifying the information.

    Wall Street, corporate reporting and the political system needs to be completely cleansed. There is lack of confidence for good reason. Trust. Trust is earned from example over time, providing value and net return.

    What has occurred is that financial system has used every single means available to extract the last dollar from the public. They are still doing this now and not being a net positive to the system.

    In regard to Merrill Lynch, I stated that both Stan O’Neil and John Thain reported false information in the 10Q reports in regard to the current marks of their assets. In addition to the civil ramifications, this is outright criminal fraud on behalf of all the Responsible Principals/Board of Directors. The SEC and USDOJ should pursue this aggressively. Both knew exactly what the market was trading at. The Attorney General of New York has instigated a full investigation at this time.

    I stated that Merrill Lynch was knowingly reporting fraudulent number when they stated, under O’Neil tenure, that their alternative assets were at 93c and the following quarter at 87c. They were trading at less than half that number.

    I stated that Merrill Lynch, under Thain’s tenure had reported a mark in regard to their assets at 45c (to my best recollection) when they were trading at 22c.

    Merrill Lynch later sold this at 30B, at 22c, 75% financed, first out with a guaranteed buy back provision in the even of loss. 22c was less than market price. Interesting how they sold near what the market would bear.

    The SEC (Formerly Christopher Cox, now heeded by Mary Shapiro) and SRO (FINRA: Headed by Mary Shapiro) had direct oversight and many regulators on site at the top investment banks. There is simply no way on earth that numerous laws and rules were not to be enforced.

    Mr. Geitner was the N.Y Federal Reserve Governor (Now Treasury Secretary) and Mr. Paulson was Treasury Secretary.

    I stated that ML was overleveraged and well above 15/1 at all times. The SEC, was to shut them down the following Tuesday, at 9:30 a.m., in absence of having adequate reserves. This is Consumer Protection Rule which protects your money.

    I stated Bank of America overpaid for Merrill Lynch.

    As I suggested the merger completely devastated Bank of America financially.

    I stated that they would come to us the taxpayer and give us the bill.

    I stated that Merrill Lynch did not cover a 5B call from J.P. Morgan, its clearing firm.

    Merrill Lynch has not made a positive return on its stock in twenty-five years.

    The FASB rules allow financial institutions to acquire institution that have losses and assess those loses against their book and avoid paying taxes. In other words more burden for you and I.

    There are twenty-four new Federal, “Recovery, “Programs at this point. They are attempting to institute several more at a cost of 3T. There is not enough cash in the system. What they are not stating is the real cost to bottom out this cycle. It will be a minimum of another 20T.

    As I stated prior, this will drive the prices of the last things that public has need of such as food. The cash prices and near term futures are reflecting a stronger basis now.

    As of today, most firms are still overleveraged by 50% to meet compliance under Bazel II or Net Capital Requirements. The system is mathematically and fundamentally insolvent. Absence of change, nationalization will occur.


    Other notes…

    Goldman Sachs, is next, as their protectorate (Paulson) and provider is no longer their shield against any review. Perhaps they should explain why they shorted in 2005 and later; the mortgage market and municipal market on the institutional side while they sold them to business clients.

    Blankfein, Goldman’s CEO, testified to congress this morning that they observed issues with the system a little before August of 2007. Really…

    What I personally find fascinating is that public had found that Geitner not paying taxes on a small amount of money to be of interest. Paulson to my understanding never paid a penny on the 500mm (typo corrected) he pulled out of Goldman. The former Presidents Portfolio and Alan Greenspan’s portfolio were almost solely invested in long term Treasury’s. Hence, you can question why they drove rates to zero (they made both money on the face and interest) and how much they actually paid in taxes (next to none).

    If you think, you cannot make difference you can, with the right help.

    Thanks Charlie. Take it to all the bad guys
     
  16. bobafett

    bobafett F1 Veteran

    Sep 28, 2002
    9,193
    Spot on. Except Paulson pulled out 500MM, not BB. But otherwise I agree wholeheartedly.
     
  17. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    U.S Treasury Credit Default Swaps
    and
    Berkshire Hathaway Credit Default Swaps are trading at Junk levels.

    Junk in a traditional indicates large risk of default within eighteen months.
    This is not a normal environment.

    I stated this would occur over six months ago.

    Hey buddy got any change?
     
  18. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

  19. SCousineau

    SCousineau Guest

    Jul 17, 2004
    3,652
    Full Name:
    S Cousineau
    In this financial universe it is hard to not be worried. I'll personally refinance the house as a bit of an
    inflation hedge.

    After that, it takes a tremendous amount of analysis, research, and maybe a bit of luck, to find potential
    winners for the long run.

    And that is what is so scarey right now. The long run presently is not imaginable as we are outside most
    experience. I just discovered these threads and am learning so much.

    The short term as Lord Keynes pointed out is where we have to make decisions however.

    -steve
     
  20. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    #95 Grim Reaper, Mar 31, 2009
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2009
    I have about 2,000 views a month on my primary thread in the Business & Investment Section. Cost $50 to to F-chat. Many very intelligent people there.
    I do not post on my thread very often and tend to wander.
    My other comments get about 5,000 views or so monthly (guess).

    I marked the bottom and the 8,000 top over there. Today a little window washing (window dressing-MF mark-up).
    Very busy.

    I currnetly have eighteen APO's going to market in the next sixty days with about 70B in collaterral. Fifteen-twenty-five deals on deck.
    We are lending (IR/PE/HEDGE) and hiring worldwide.
    BofA, Wells, Citi, Goldman Who?

    We just opened up a Bio-Science and China Division.

    We will doing several large ones in California shortly, in addition to the smaller ones.
    They are and will be hiring.

    I might post some on what we are working on here.

    Very likely going to Washington shortly to draw a line the sand on all the markets.
     
  21. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    As many already know and I have posted elsewhere here.
    I am currently market nuetral here in regard to index's.
    Too dangerous either way.

    I will post what we are working on shortly.
    All are employing, some in California.
     
  22. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    The next turn is coming up and the Summer Doldrums/June Gloom are around the corner for the DJIA/NDX Index Correlated issues.
    I am thinking next Tuesday, but could be as early as tomorrow for a pop and top.
    Business trip tomorrow, otherwise I would attempt to hit the exact time. Already have the number in my head...
    Word.
     
  23. Grim Reaper

    Grim Reaper Formula Junior

    Funny how that happens...

    So S&P 500 Earnings down 84.7%.
    I was a little off from last year this time. I forecast that would be down 75%.
    Funny GS came out with same information three months later.
    I guess that is what they call forecasting...after the fact...hmm...
     
  24. Spiderguy

    Spiderguy Formula Junior

    May 21, 2006
    462
    Full Name:
    Harry J
    John/FutureOwner, what do you think of the questioning of credibility now?

    http://ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=239913&page=35
    .
     
  25. JSinNOLA

    JSinNOLA F1 World Champ
    Sponsor Lifetime Rossa

    Mar 18, 2002
    18,776
    Denver, CO
    The original issue was whether or not people were questioning Brent for the sake of trolling or questioning because they found concrete reason to do so. Whereas before Brent was simply making directional calls on the overall market (not restricted on F-chat), things changed once the legality/appropriateness of specific calls in reference to companies sponsored by Brent's firm began to surface.

    All of the recent questioning is fair game and the onus is clearly upon Brent to answer some of those specific questions.
     

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