Early 1990s crash of collector Porsche and Ferrari values...how did it happen?

Yeh and if he can sell the car for only 500k I doubt he's gonna be crying subprime at the top of his lungs

 

you got it .. everything is relative if you can afford it and want it who cares... lot of money out there

 

I got the cars I need. Bought em used and new as the ocasion and desire arose. Like Sherpas point in another thread you can only take care of and use so many, and at 7 its starting to become work, plus storage is an issue.

My response is what I see as insults to some other people on this thread who lament prices having been driven crazy. Somehow if you lament that then by other views you cant afford the game. To me its not a game, loved cars since I could articulate and been fortunate to get most of the ones I want. Well the one that has moved out of my grasp is a 288, I can live with that.

Now on one hand, yes people should buy whatever they want and can afford. On the other hand this is in theory and enthusiasts site, that means people appreciate cars for what they are not what they represent as a function of $$$. When peopel start buying as a function of $$ it obviously changes prices, but also turns this hobby/obesssion into something else.

I think none of us can deny that a large factor in the price runup or some of the really crazy prices we have seen are driven by people(maybe no one here) who are purchasing somehtign they have little understandign of other than what it reperesents, or what some advisor has told them about. I think some here are lamenting that factor in pricing, regardless of what they can afford.

To the extent people here hold themselvs out to be conniseurs and true enthusiasts that is an issue regardless of how much you have to spend. Just having the $$$ to spend means a pricelss period can am ferrari gets choppped into a sort of replica P4. To me the cars are way more than just what you have to spend and can do as you wish. They are art and artifacts of an era.

As to the Joplin car, I think it will have proven to have been a great buy. Its 1 of 1. Its nothign to do with being a 356, could have been any car, its the car that was Joplins personal expression of herself. In other words art and a cultural artifact. To me that very different than paying a huge premium for an otehrwise unremarkable TR because maybe Tyson owned it once. It woudl be an affront to many if Joplins car just go repainted white because the owner had no clue about Joplin. But I digress.

And yes those wingers can buy 360s and mondials today, no reason to cry about a 512TR, a boxer is a much betetr car, and for 2 decades no one wanted those or TRs at 90K, suddenly its a thing?

But imo as enthusiasts none of us should be appauding the cluelss about cars drivign up prices just because they have the $$$, and dealers turnign it into a game, because then it means we are about the $$$ not the car(like so many modern ferraris), and the car becomes static. I like cars that go and are driven as designed by someone who knows what they are doing and appreciates what they are astheticaly and dynamicaly, not cars (and by extension the hobby) reduced to trinkets of wealth display. Thats my point, thats why I dont like the current price runups and what drives them, or for that matter ferraris brand/client strategy that is reducing its product line to really fast numb Gt cars..

But its fine because there are lots of great "undiscovered" older cars to buy, and we are in an era when some new cars are definatly future collectables, so its just a function of comitment and taste, if you really like somethign odds are in the future someone else will too.
A 997 Tt would in my opnion never make the list, its fugly, a divorced driving experince fast but bland. They do make decent track cars though once you strip them out and remove the awd. If its porche, or anything modernish, I personaly think a 997 Gt3 is a seminal car, and whether prices inflated now or not, they are going to be well worth buying, firstly for the driving experince, and secondly because if $$$ is important in a decsion 20 years from now whatever you pay will have been a bargain.
As I said earlier the aston V12 vantage with stick is a car to buy, its like that &k daytona in 1975, somehtign only thsoe who appreciated the machien bought, and we all now call precient.

In any event if someone laments prices being driven crazy, I dont assume its because they cat afford it, maybe they just have a different value structure.

A 250 GTO, its worth 50 mill and will one day hit 100mill, its art. But lots of more pedestrian cars are imo being pushed into pseudo art, and a number of really great ones are not reckognised, that imo, and its only imo, tells me that there are $$$ drunk people running around, just because they are smart in their stockbroking gig, it does not make them much else.

 

no one has an issue with the following statement:
"man it sucks prices have moved so high. I've made some money and wld be a buyer at 2009 prices."

now the issue with that as has been said, most people who had the money to spend in 09 didn't actually buy anything.

the following statement doesn't go over as well:
"the market is artificially inflated by a bunch of stupid greedy rich morons who don't understand what they're buying and can't wait until their faces get ripped off."

do you see the difference?

also we talk about enthusiasts - is this maybe hypocritical in of itself? What if I said if you have never bought a new ferrari you too are a greedy speculator? it's known that if you buy a new ferrari you will probably suffer depreciation. so unless ur willing to take that hit, I argue you might not be a true enthusiast. buying a car that's fully depreciated doesn't illustrate love, it illustrates downside dollar loss limitation which is the same thingas speculating for profit.

 

that person is a fool.... the person buying mcqueen's stuff on the other hand....

 

Excellent point.

What's funny is that the people decrying all of these buyers as "fools" and saying they're not true enthusiasts and "only buying for the badge," etc. and are pure greedy speculators "buying from a list" (something that I have yet to personally witness) don't seem to accept that maybe some people are just fiscally responsible car enthusiasts. They buy the cars they wanted when they believe in the price and they sell when they're done with the car. If they get higher prices they look like geniuses. Some of them did with smart calculations, some did it with pure luck, but they all end up in the same place and used all that money to buy more cars!

I have some great cars that I consider all to be well bought. I don't think that I bought any of them at the absolute bottom of the market and I don't think that I got any exceptional deals when I bought them. However, I liked the cars for what they were and I felt it was okay to pay the prices at the time. I know that a couple of people said I paid too much and no "true enthusiast" would buy such cars and at those prices. Well, they've all gone up a ton since I bought them and now I look smart, even though future appreciation played no role in my decisions.

Unfortunately, since I'm not much of a seller I don't get many chances to actually play out any possible good fortune in timing. There have been a couple, though: a few years ago I bought a pristine 1973 Porsche Carrera RS 2.7 at auction for about half a million dollars. The message boards were all atwitter with harsh words for me. In fact, some mental giant on pelican parts posted the sale result along with the words, "a fool and his money are soon parted," (sound familiar?). A few years later, after putting more miles on it than the previous 3 owners combined and dialing it in perfectly, the car fetched a then world record at Amelia island for around $900k. I guess someone was the fool, for sure.

Was I buying from a list? Was I being greedy? Or was I just someone who finally had the money for a bucket list car that I wanted to experience. I certainly couldn't afford them when they were $150k or $250k. And good thing that I didn't wait because I wouldn't have been able to get another one that special for a long time and not anywhere close to what I paid.

Anyway, the point is that it is easy to sit from afar and talk about things people do wrong and how foolish they are but at the end of the day, the only people it makes a difference to is them. Furthermore, it's clear that most of the comments about people being so dumb and foolish are from people who have no clue who the buyers are, what their financial situations are like, or their reasons for buying. I go to all the major auctions and I have yet to see some of what everyone here goes on about: pigs, greedy speculators, people buying from a list and not knowing what they're buying. For the most part, these people are pretty hard core enthusiasts who just have lots more money than most people here can understand.

 

poetry.
I will confess - 16 yrs ago one of my best friend was dying from leukemia - a week before he died we made a list of cars we wanted to buy. only 2 cars have evaded me.

 

and they are ?

and RIP

 

diablo jota and mclaren f1

 

I get your difference. But it seems that here there are only two views posted and I am trying to show a 3rd and 4th view.

As to not buying new. Tried to do it 3x, in the first two instances ferrari was so obsessed with playing speculatory games with favorite customers that they would not even take a deposit for delivery at 18 months out. The game as it was played then was favored clients got the car, paying a premium, drove it for 6 months and the by contract sold it back through the dealer. Those types of buyers were certainly not enthusiasts, they were stockbrokers mostly who saw a way to drive a new car and make some $$$ playing a game. Problem is the product suffered, because you know none of those people wanted a stick, or anythign that would require driver skill like a viceral car, this played out in the 458..

The 3rd time the game had changed, ferrari while it pretended to be backordered needed customers, just as they do now. You could order a 458 of your choice and it would be delivered in 6 months, excpet your couldnt order a speciale, that was still part of the old game. Two test drives later I passed, the 458 looks stuning, but to drive on the road, was pretty meh, as exciting as this keyboard or any other car. You know they made it so "useable" that to a driver like me it was sort of uselss. Now I am sure in Germany or on the track where you can go close on 10/10ths its really exciting, but in other conditions it struck me as flashy noisy gilded lexus.

Sad to say, but for an enthusiast driver like me ferrari has lost the magic as a road car. My BBI is just so much more fun, and on road is faster than is realisticaly useable. So I built a GT40 to play on track with the money that would have gone to a 458. As an economic decsion a new build GT40 recreation cant be any better than a new ferrari.



The 458 was quite a contrast to the 997GT3 I drove which seemed superb fun at all speeds, what imo a modern should be, all of the excitement of a classic without the headaches
I think ferrari also realises that the "useable" customer is a dead end, thus we now have the allgedly edgy F12 TDF. Hopefully the rest of the line starts to pick up the magic again.

Recently tried a 570s and besides the steering it impressed. Maybe soon Mclaren will be building the alive car ferrari should be, and since you dont have to deal with dealer games at Mclaren thats where my money will go on modern, plus the squids have not cottoned on to Mclaren as a showoff item yet, so its got hat going for it too.

Then there is the ford Gt, I would happliy buy one for the 400k if given the opportunity. But most likely will not have the opportunity, and those that are sold will be flipped for big markups only to dissapear into garage "collections" thusly is the car thing debased by those with $$$ but no real appreciation, as is my point.

But should I be able to secure one, it will be at the track and you are all welcome for a ride, as you are in my GT40, to experience some real driving in anger, ie what these cars really offer those who appreciate them for what they are.

 

i think you are more of an exception than a rule. As is say Nick Mason.

 

boxer u seem to have issues with finance people
and btw you can walk in any day of the week at any dealer in the world and you can buy a new FF

 

I appreciate that and as much I would love to think that I'm different, I don't think that's the case.

In my experience, I think that the raw speculators are the exception (we have a few of those on this board and everyone steers clear of them as it's clear they're only in it for the money) and the rule are real enthusiasts either bettering their collections or trading their way into their dream cars. It's just that their dream cars aren't things like F40s and 288s like the rest of us: their dream cars are SWB Comps with certain histories, 275 GTB/C cars, Ferrari P cars, etc.

Some of you should go to the RM sales in places like Amelia Island and Monterey, sit in the first section, and strike up conversations with the people around you who are actually bidding and buying cars. Then come back and tell us how many enthusiasts you met and how many speculators you met. You would be surprised. Oh, and feel free to continue to wax poetic about how the reputable auction companies (RM, Gooding, Bonhams, etc.) are pumping up the market with empty hype as well (that's sarcasm, fyi). Again, it's easy to sit from afar and judge but if someone actually took the time to learn what it is they're actually saying, it would be highly educational.

I don't have the money that lot's of these people do. I feel incredibly fortunate just to have what I have now and I know that the only reason that I even got here was because I was smart and followed my heart (not a contradiction). However, if I had a lot more money, I know that I would add three or four more cars - and not small cars, either. And if I had the money now, I would add them now. And people would call me a fool (again).

Here's something else to consider:

I know two collectors who I consider speculators because they're always searching for value, buying something and selling something. I'm sure they would even say that they're speculators to a certain degree. However, both of these guys are so freaking knowledgeable about all kinds of cars that it would blow your mind. They have incredible collections with cars they've owned for years. Furthermore, they understand the histories and nuances of every car they've ever bought to such a high level that the only person who knows more about their cars is Marcel (whom they have on speed dial, anyway).

These guys definitely have passion and they're not in it for just the money (although they certainly like to count it). They compete in vintage racing and have tracked some very significant cars. They have tons of pics of their cars on their phones that they love to show. They do rallies and other great events that have nothing to do with values of cars. I definitely wouldn't say that they're not enthusiasts who are full of passion.

My point with that is that there are just some people with so much money that they get to do extraordinary things, and it's not because they're stupid. Look, I don't know if I would be tracking a 250 SWB or other special Ferraris but I know that if I had the means, I would probably would do some pretty awesome things with my car hobby that many people who call themselves "true enthusiasts" just couldn't fathom, just as I'm sure most people on here would do, too.

Case in point: look at all of those "Dream Garage" threads. People list like 20 cars that cost millions upon millions of dollars. If more enthusiasts had the money, they would do exactly what these other folks do.

 

Just the crass behaviour of so many, and their assumed superiority, try living in Greenwich.
And you know no one wants an FF, that is a car to buy used if you like it.
You can also walk into a dealer, or you could and just buy a 458 if you wnated one.
last time I was at the dealer(late Nov) there were so mnay used 458's for sale that it looked like a used car lot at hyundai. I guess all those new "enthusiasts" want the ltest especialy as their warranty expiring. Thats very different profile to those of us who buy and dont sell.
What cars besides a laferrari(for some) or maybe a speciale does ferrari make that anyone really wants to keep long term.

 

some of my best friends and favorite people in the world live in greenwich. I'm there all the time. I have a lot of respect for the people I know there. all around great people who don't have trust funds. they're kids may have them one day though.

 

I agree that at swb GTO and Maclaren F1 territory most are driving enthusiasts who happen to be extraordinarily wealthy.

But then look at 288 prices and what drove them. The most plausible explanation is that "collectors" wanted one of each F series and the 288 is the least numerous, so supply demand pricing. But "collecting" one of each F series is building a collection like buying named art, its not necessarily driving enthusiasm, although that element may or may not be present for some.

look at 2.7 Carrera Rs prices. There are not suddenly so many more enthusiasts than there were in 2006 or more liquidity. These cars have become thing, auction houses classic car mags they all build a profile and those with the means but not necessarily the apprciation move in.
275 4 cams were 1.4 mill in 07, 3.5 now, what changed, it was marketing, the chinese are not buyign yet, if it was just mostly the pool of buyers who were enthusiasts expanding then the price would not have more than doubled.

512 BBIs trippled, you think all those buyers are people who always wanted one and suddenly had the money and inclination. Or were they people who maybe sort of maybe wanted one, liked the looks, but once the car got hyped and priced towards investment category it became desireable?

Air cooled porche, did people suddenly realize water cooled cars are not so cool? Where did all those buyers suddenly come from.

There is a whole new range of buyers out there, far more vast than growing enthuisiast ranks and its not just that suddenly they have the money, their motivartions are different.

Classic cars is more and more being turned into an industry with marketing and hype, its trend that started in the late 70's and becomes more and more prevelant very year, something people think they have to have to be part of the crew or scene, like a house in the hamptons.

If most classic owners are "enthusiats" how came we have so many lame concors where cars like miuras and various ferraris are only driven through traffic to parade and concors. thats a very different motivation and relates to the car as $value, "lifestyle statements" and a trinket.

I know nothing about art, dont have the inate talent or eye to appreciate it. Now with a spare 100 mill I could get an expert and buy some great names to hang on the walls, I could probably even donate 5 mill to the Guggenheim and be fetetd as a true patron. I might know a bit more about art then, but I still wouldnt really get it.

The person who got art was the postman in Brooklin who died with 100 mill in art he and his wife had bought and collected from the 50"s through 90s before the moneyed suddenly read about a must have name which he already had appreciated long before.

The enthusioasts with money. Raph Lauren, Brandon Wang, Nick Mason, Leno, Mqueen.

BTW a Mclaren F1 is now over 10 million, yet they couldnt sell more than 85 in the 90s for 1 million. Same car. Rowan Atkinson bought one then and did 35k miles in his, thats an enthusiast he knew what it was then, he didnt need 20 years of retrospective and hype to suddenly make it a thing. Miles Collier Leno and lauren, they bought them used just when you could sort of bring them in and they were 1 mill cars, they knew what they were.

Look at Nick Mason, he bought all of his cars new for list, or as bits and pieces to restore when no one wanted them, well the GT0 was used and running, but back then he knew what it was. I seriously doubt he would buy one now for 50 mill now, its something different.

Anyways the market is self correcting in a strange way. for 200-500-1mill you can have pretty much any car you desire recreated to a T. Its really popular in Europe where they favor drivign over $ hype affrimation. Its frowned upon in the USA where $ affirmation is more the thing and purpose of ownership for too many, with driving at best secondary. Its also why many a "retsored" car at auction has superlative paint but drives so poorly it needs to be re-restored.

My point is yes maybe 50% are enthusiasts of various means, but each year more and more enter the market with very different motivations, and it is this other group that is turbocharging prices of nearly evertyhing, exept pre war which is great..

My Billionaire friend in Monaco, a guy who rides a Harley and flys his helicopter, loves his art and architecture but never really got into cars, told me recently he is sorry that he didnt get into classic cars, when I asked why he said because they went up 400%.

This rise is being driven by banks finance companies restoration shops classic car magazines and auction houses, its a big industry which needs growing prices to sustain. If it were just enthusiasts then prices might have gone up 50% or doubled, not trippled and quadrupled(I am not talking GTs and SWBs which are their own orbit and immune to vagaries).

The big prices are not necessarily harmful to the cars long term, many a ropey car is now worth saving and restoring.

Its also a cycle, happens every 10 or so years, prices go up a lot, many cars get redone saved etc, people decry the investor class. Eventualy it all gets overdone and prices correct. maybe this time it wont be a bubble just a recorrection and a flat period till the next runup.

One theroy i have is that some sportscar prices start to spike amongst enthusiasts when there are no new good options. the 70s produced crap and in the 80s the 60s italian stuff really took off, there was nothign new as good, untill the Tr came along.

Now we are in the new era of digital paddlle cars, it makes sense that driving enthusiasts want to buy analog stick cars, hence the rise of the last analog porche Gt3's. I'll bet you that if porche produces a cayman GT4 with the GT3 engine and great stick in any volume we will see 997 Gt3 prices soften.

So yes enthusiasts and speculator/collectors drive prices, the enthuisiasts stay in, lets see what the others do this time around.

Meanwhile you just know 20 years from now a 2015 z28 is going to be collectable like a L88 vette is, we wont see that type of extreme car again, yet almost no one is buying now because they need hype to affirm that they want it, when hype hits the 360 the whingers will lament the price rise even though they should buy now if they want an affordable ferrari.

last point. 308GT4s, what fantastic car in euro trim. Its the only ferrari designed by Ghandini, he of miura countach stratos fame, and is arguably his best most coherant design, they even drive better than a 308. yet for years they were in the dumps because they were not designed by pinifarina as the "rules" then said all good ferraris must be, a bit of hype and they are becoming a thing.

Make no mistake specualtor/collector/nonenthusiasts have entered the market and turbocharged it, that means that its probably not good value to spend at today prices. of course if you have the means and the desire to experience a particular car then as Ralph lauren said years ago, its a good idea to pay tomorrows prices for the right car today.

But as an investment decision, it seems to me that the market below the swb level cars is either taking a breather or gently recorrecting. Still if you dont have to get what now "everyone" wants on their checklist, then there are lots of gret cars to buy that have yet to fly pricewise, and yes the whingers wont buy those either.

 

Great post Boxerman
Appreciate you sharing your thoughts
Cheers
FS


If there is a heaven for me, im sure there is a garage attached.

 

Ditto on both counts. Couldn't have said it better.

 

Unfortunately, the two of you wont change the masses on this board - I can only assume that they are not owners, or afraid to be owners because they got lucky and can't afford to be in it in the first place and are afraid that if prices go up, so does the service and prices which will force them to sell.
Somehow, these people are considered enthusiasts, which people like you and I are not. Back in the my day a guy riding a bike with long hair and not clean was called a "loser" , today, my kids call them "hipsters"
It's a weird time

 

I think you are making some broad and broadly incorrect assumptions.

 

Thank you for proving my point

I did say in my post that "I can only assume"

 

ypo know what they say about assumptions, the make an...

 

Well, as I have said before, this is a free marketplace and the beauty of all free markets is that they are constantly hunting for price equilibrium. If there's too much inventory, it will correct. If there's too little inventory, it will correct. Supply and demand and all of that fun stuff.

And that's why it's so pointless when Chicken Littles whine about fools spending too much on cars and they're going to pay, blah blah blah. It's a free market and the market sorts it all out.

Of course, that doesn't stop certain people from crying about how only fools and speculators are purchasing cars and all the enthusiasts have nothing. The one thing they have going for them is that eventually they will be right. How long are we into that bubble thread now? Three years or something? And in the last 3 years, people have bought many amazing cars that have doubled or tripled in price and some may even have sold them already. Well, maybe this is the year all the whiners are finally right. Or maybe not.

 

I still believe that some True enthusiasts are buying cars at any price range. It really depends on that buyers need or desires at the time. As i have said earlier i have been in this car collecting hobby for about 20years now and it seems that when ever i bought a car I always felt i paid a little two much weather it was at 1966 gt 350 shelby for 115 and later sold for much more ... or a 63 sw corvette that i bought for around 110 and later sold for 90 (during 09) or so many other cars I have partiular LS6 corvette i paid 65 for sold it many years later for 175 and paid about that much for an insanely priced 98 point platinum DINO...
which i still have or the L88 corvette that i sold for about double what i paid a couple of years ago (interestingly i bought that car in 07 and guess what happened in 08 then i sold it in 14).. it is all relative because with everyone of these cars I sold i bought another for what i thought was to much but sometimes turned out to be a great deal and in some cases it turns out to be a bad deal...but it does not matter because i want what i want and overall i am up or even and have owned a bunch of cars that i love till i want something more. SO i guess for many people it is all relative if you just sold a car for 3 times what you paid for and pay to much for another car for similar money who cares....I rarely sell a car but when i do it is cause i want something else more....
i always am looking for something as that is part of the fun. I only got into ferraris about 5 years ago not because that was a status thing but more because i finally drove one and that was the day that changed everything... I owned 4 nice shelbys at the time and about 15 highly desirable old corvettes now my interested have changed and i beleive that is how car enthusiasts work .....

 

Well aware.

I'm also very well aware that you need to post the opposite just to feel correct in whatever point you wish to make, just like the whiners that wish prices crash , or continue to post that prices are too high. Socialism has also taken over the car market with the whiners about prices. If those people spent as much time and effort finding a way to work harder/ smarter, maybe they they have a better chance at buying in.

It's getting long in the tooth with these threads, I wish I would have bought a carb boxer when they were a 100k - I had the chance, I missed the boat ( for now ) oh well - guess I will have to find a new way to make that happen. Once I do, if I can,It will be nice to write that check.
We have to stop being politically correct by calling bottom feeders ,and negative people about our cars as "enthusiasts" - they are not !