Crisis hitting Vintage market? All signs are there

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=196598

I think not.

Dale

 

I have been an active seller in the past year, off-loading "newer" cars (less than 40 years old) while in search of older classics.
My last sale was a week ago, of two very modern cars, which sold for an acceptably low level of depreciation versus their original MSRP. The big surprise however has been in the classics where I have realized some extraordinary gains on cars that are generally not thought of as rare (in the sense that less than 50 were made), but cars that were readily available in their era. I hope to have another one sold in Maranello next week. The outcome of those sales has been nothing less than astonishing, relative to the prices I paid, but when compared to original MSRP they have escalated in value at many orders of magnitude.
There is real profit lurking in these old cars. I am constantly being solicited on other cars in my collection, including my Dino and a Porsche Speedster, both virtually guaranteed to fetch in excess of $200k and possibly much higher, where the profit potential is extraordinary, so I don't buy the idea that classic cars are not good investments. Like any investments, two factors are important -timing and timing, with a bit of luck thrown in, and a great quality car doesn't hurt either.

 

I agree with 410SA. The demand for certain classic and collectible cars have not dropped off IMO. It seems only to have gained steam with people's perception being that classic cars are a good place to freeze some dollars in this unpredictable economy we are currently in. For many the classics tend to be more interesting than the modern cars having a history with a story. They are immune to depreciation unlike your modern cars and for the right car there always seems to be a healthy market.

 

Unlike the run-up in the Ferrari market of the late 80's, this current market has been driven by end user buyers and not speculators or dealers flipping cars 2,3,4 times at a substantial profit. Although there will undoubtedly be a little of that in a rising market such as this, in general this is a market driven almost entirely on demand vs. supply. The fact is, early Ferrari's, even some of the more mundane series production cars are becoming increasingly more difficult to obtain due to the fact they are being acquired and put into collections and are not being continually "recycled" in the market. As the world population expands, and the potential of real buyers increases worldwide, combined with the ever shrinking supply due to the above factors, I see no reason to think that these cars will not remain strong, especially very high caliber examples. There will always be ups and downs in any market, and right now we are definitely in an up, and one day we will be in a down. To what extent the market will change is anybody's guess I suppose, due to many factors that are always changing. I predict 20 years from now this discussion will still be ongoing, and the prices then will make todays prices seem like the good old days! 50m for a GTO. IMHO, Mike Regalia

 

+1

 

Recent personal experience supports your assertion completely. Rare, desirable cars are continuing to climb in value. And it's not just due to the fallen dollar. There's a hell of a lot of American buyers out there too.... it may be a while before GTOs get that high however...

 

I truely do not expect to see GTO's at 50m anytime soon, but I do predict that number will happen in the future. We speak today in monetary terms in the billions of dollars more often than we speak in the millions. Possibly there are more billionaires today than there were millionaires 25 years ago. Great wealth is being accumulated at a faster rate than ever before. The number of people that can afford such a number is ever growing, and will continue to grow. As the sale numbers continue to rise, especially on the very rare special cars, the perception of these cars is going to change more towards collectable art than just old cars. As that perception changes so too will the values. Really, the greatest cars of all time ARE already works of art. They were designed by some of the worlds greatest car designers, who were/are no less skilled than some of the great fine artists. The one trait that ALL of the great collectable cars have, whether it be an Alfa 2900 Spyder or a Ferrari 250 GTO is their ability to transcend just being a car, and they become rolling sculpture. The name Ferrari has it's own special magnetism for many obvious reasons, and I see no reason to believe that will change in a negative way. They were special 50 years ago, they're special today, and they will be tomorrow, and beyond! Mike Regalia

 

Beware of Europeans and others bearing Euros!!! just one man's opinion. tongascrew

 

Seems these predictions have come true.

 

Some are.

Some are whistling past the Graveyard.

 

Seems like the same guys with their heads in the sand in March are the same guys with their heads in the sand today...wow!

 

Its VERY interesting to see some of the guys who I have been in agreement with were spot on correct with there predictions. Jim, I swear, if values go where you say they're going, I'm going to call your office and see what you account minimums are!

 

+1, except I would substitute "most" for "some"

 

I do not understand?

Vintage Ferrari's are assets and asset values cannot decrease any further, they have nowhere to go but up. The election is over. The Messiah has come. All is well.

So stop worrying and begin spending and when the tax bills come do not forget to be patriotic and pay extra.





Terry

 

All I can read is half think "this", and the other half think "that". So if things were reversed the other guys would have been right. Might as well have flipped a coin.

IMHO, no one seen anything this bad coming. Surely, some warned of something like this, but no one really knew. We have the greatest minds working on these financial problems, and I am confident they will find a way out of this before it goes too terribly bad. I think though, that they need to strong arm the banks back into borrowing money, and soon, or the big 3 are going to cause us all a great ill.

 

I have been studying the present financial collapse for the last two years. I spend about 2 hours a day reading talking to people about markets and economics. Those that were thinking out side the box and a lot of us amature's called it dead on. Some of us were able to profit from it. Kind of like a bunch of backyard astronomers finding a comet that is heading straight for us and telling every one it's coming right at us. The Kings court astronomers were saying no way you guys are not qualified to see such an important discovery or interperate its meaning.

The whole thing could have been avoided very easly with regulation that was on the books as well which still makes me sick. It is a really big mess and going to take some time and a lot of pain for the little guy to fix this. We are just seeing the begining of it.

 

And some of us are licking our chops... Hoping we see values come down to a historic buying opportunity. I don't we are even close to bottom, in fact I don't think we are at the end of the beginning of this crash...

Should be an interesting ride...

 

From March 22nd...

 

+1

 

I learned today that the black 275 4 cam not sold (10545) at the London RM auction went away today for GB£625,000 in the face of an asking of £800,000. Settlement price therefore eqates to just over US$930,000.

 

Pretty much where the auction put it. Especially if it'd gone on earlier.

1968 275 GTB/4 (10545) – looked spectacular and immaculate in black with tan trim (originally metallic silver grey with fawn). Recent comprehensive and expensive rebuild by Terry Hoyle and class winner at the FOC concours in July. Original car ordered and delivered with some unusual options such as GTC seats, power windows, different pedals etc. Details UK history from new and immaculate car. Passed in at 600,000 pounds (est 750-800,000) If you wanted a concours RHD 275, then this was probably the one to go for. Was possibly put on too late in the evening for the serious bidders, but perhaps it was a later entry for the auction.

 

power windows,how many had that?

 

Over the past few days some sobering thoughts about classic car valuations:
1. I sold one of my cars, A 1936 Cord on Ebay for 15 pct less then what I paid for it 9 months ago. The buyer is from overseas and all other close bids where from overseas bidders. No us based bid. 15% in 9 months
2. Some ok cars on offer, some OSCA's and alfa's are beginning to crack with ask prices still up there followed by "but we will be flexible" by the seller. These are real conversations being had by me with real sellers. All recognize that 20% off the peak is a done deal (some us the euro excuse,... who cares?!). Still, some grandstanding but its filtering through, slowly
3. the 275 GTB/4 that sold from less then 1 mio usd, shows at least 25% drop.

I guess one cannot argue with facts.
I believe... sorry, i should say, I KNOW, that prices will be down another 30-40 pct (50-60 pct from the top) in 3-4 months. some dealers with inventory will find shifting their cars impossible. Good luck to all.

 

Smart move to move the Cord now, you did well, just wait another 9 months! I've sold 2 vintage cars in the last 2 weeks for more than I should have gotten, there are amazingly still some who believe it won't go lower.