COVID 19 | Page 4 | FerrariChat

COVID 19

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by LMH, Feb 26, 2020.

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  1. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    I did think, quite a lot, the media is inducing panic

    https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

    https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/29/5/900/5423838

    YEARLY, 3M-5M flu cases in Italy, about 8,000 annual deaths, nearly all COVID19 attributed deaths in Italy are coincidental, leading to overstatement, the virus can kill, but when you have patients with various lung diseases, other terminal conditions, and the virus may or may not be "in their system" at time of death

    https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/sorveglianza-mortalita-influenza

    an average of 8000 deaths from influenza and its complications are attributed annually in Italy
     
  2. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    as for Italy hospital situation, some quick research:


    overall stats:
    http://ojs.francoangeli.it/_omp/index.php/oa/catalog/book/399
    The Health & Hospitals Report/2018 describes the performance of the Italian hospital system, which is an extremely large organization, numbering more than 1,000 health care institutions, 200,000 patient beds, 8.8 million hospitalizations, 632,000 employees and a total expenditure of EUR 63.1 billion, equal to 55.4% of total public health care spending.


    Page 4 here:
    https://www.bain.com/contentassets/294dfad7b9f94a4bb7b3c75cd90cfa7c/bain_brief_front_line_of_healthcare_report_2018.pdf
    Physician discontent over deteriorating working conditions and growing risks to the quality
    of care has risen to alarming levels. The Net Promoter Score® for hospitals dropped to
    negative 22 in 2018 from negative 16 in 2016. Between 20% and 35% of
    physicians in Germany, the UK and Italy would not recommend their hospitals as a place
    to receive care.


    Italy has been having severe problems with their hospitals for years:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/31/italian-doctors-using-cardboard-splints-third-world-clinics/

    https://www.thelocal.it/20190322/what-can-italy-teach-the-rest-of-the-world-about-health
    The Italian healthcare landscape includes crumbling hospitals, doctors trained on books rather than patients, and per capita spending one-third that of the United States. And Americans like to say their medical care is the best in the world, while Italians consider their National Health Service to be hopelessly dysfunctional.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/troubled-italian-health-system-frustrates-doctors-drugmakers-2/

    https://www.uehp.eu/publications/members-corner/italy

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/09/business/italy-economy-debt.html
    The workers were protesting the loss of 5,000 jobs in regional hospitals over the past decade, leading to shortages of doctors and nurses. The new government in Rome is uninterested, they said.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328638656_Hospital_hygiene_in_Italy_the_GISIO-SItI_survey

    and, setup to be overwhelmed:

    https://www.domedica.com/en/alarming-doctor-shortage-45000-retirements-in-the-next-5-years/

    and this:
    https://annaeverywhere.com/moving-to-europe-gone-wrong/

    more:
    http://www.hope.be/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/2018_Hospitals-in-EU-28-Synthesis-final-for-publication-002.pdf
    Between 2004 and 2014 the number of acute hospitals decreased significantly all over Europe. 181 acute care hospitals were closed in Germany, 126 in Italy...
     
  3. albkid

    albkid Formula Junior

    Jul 1, 2016
    318
    Full Name:
    Jim
    Whether one wants to argue that the casualty figures of the corona pandemic are overstated compared to season influenza, the economic wreckage of the pandemic are most profound. There is no denying the human toll of shuttered businesses.

    As for the world's bond and equity markets, the damage is utterly real and frightening. A brother who was involved in talks with Bernanke and Geithner during the 2008 financial crisis tells how these two men misjudged the emerging calamity. He says this is worse, but this time the Fed did not wait for "more data" to act..
     
    Texas Forever and MDEL like this.
  4. MDEL

    MDEL F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Feb 24, 2016
    3,557
    Southern Europe
    Full Name:
    Mario
    People have put their lives on hold due to coronavirus and the economic effects will be devastating worldwide. With so many countries confined to their borders and people implementing social distancing, it seems likely there will be no return to normal life for a long time. When some “normality” returns to Italy and Europe Ferrari will be able to re-start its car production at Maranello. However, like everyone of us, Ferrari will be confronted with a world’s economy that has changed drastically. The new times will be of great uncertainty making it compulsory for companies to downsize their objectives. I presume Ferrari won’t be an exception.

    With the factory stopped and the situation of coronavirus in Italy still out of control, it's plausible that this year Ferrari won't produce the number of cars that had planned. That's a good new for everyone that was worried with the future of the brand exclusivity. The other good new is the most than certain delay of the unrealistic dream of some European green politicians that want the extinction of cars with an ICE by 2030-2035.
     
    Caeruleus11 likes this.
  5. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior

    Mar 23, 2015
    857
    UK Riviera
    #80 FFantastic, Mar 17, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
    I too have Italian ancestry being quarter Sicilian and spend a lot of time in Northern Italy. The article was in the Times newspaper and referred to in others.
    I merely passed it on for the purpose of sharing not to sensationalise a genuine catastrophe. I know some (very few) Americans have difficulty with geography but most Americans are also blessed with being able to say it as they see it.

    The accuracy of some of the general detail may be questioned but the facts are clear and indisputable in that there are thousands of Chinese workers working in the now Chinese owned (not all by any stretch) fashion houses based in Northern Italy. Mostly they live in very close quarters provided by the company. Many enjoy the privilege of subsidised flights from Bologna via Air China and many did so for Chinese New Year and many of them come from Wuhan. Also Venice is by far the most popular destination for Italy based Chinese workers who when granted short breaks are bussed there by company buses.
    The return to Italy of the Chinese workers after their new year coincides exactly with the rapid growth of the virus in both places, now unfortunately most places.
    I too think the use of the phrase 'you wont see this in the mainstream press etc' is and sounds conspiritual but there is also an element of truth in that most publications are conscious and even nervous of pointing fingers at various communities for very good reason.

    I also appreciate your anxiety regarding your parents in lock down but I fear most if not all of Europe will suffer the same predicament very soon.

    Although this is a Ferrari forum the tread is clearly titled Coronavirus and I apologise if my post has left you astonished.
     
  6. F140C

    F140C Formula 3

    Nov 25, 2016
    1,574
    Piedmont
    Full Name:
    Marco
    I thought It was the other way around and according to ISTAT data (updated January '19), 70k chinese people live in Lombardy vs 56k in Tuscany (out ot 300k in total for the whole country). Don't know if numbers changed dramatically during the last year, but that's what I could find. In any case, I don't really care and I just want this to be over soon, hopefully by April 3rd.
     
  7. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

    Aug 7, 2009
    1,386
    UK
    Full Name:
    Justin
    It also coincided with Milan fashion week on 18th February. I know of two cases of UK residents that worked together in Italy preparing for Milan Fashion week and subsequently became infected which backs up your article.
     
    Napoli likes this.
  8. BarryK

    BarryK Formula 3

    Dec 17, 2016
    1,160
    Europe
    Full Name:
    Barry K
    Now this is just made up drivel. Air China doesn't even fly to Bologna. Can't we just leave it to the rest of the internet for these conspiracy theories? :)
     
  9. PJ72

    PJ72 Karting

    Jun 1, 2017
    60
    I took no offense and I appreciate your post. I remain convinced of what I said and I would caution people to think long and hard before posting definitive truths. There will be plenty of time in the future to do proper analysis of causes and to avoid same mistakes in the future.
    Yes, this is a forum and people can express their opinions. That is fine. This is just a very difficult topic obviously


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  10. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior

    Mar 23, 2015
    857
    UK Riviera
    I concede your point Re Bologna, Air China fly from Rome.
     
  11. noone1

    noone1 F1 Rookie
    BANNED

    Jan 21, 2008
    4,612
    Los Angeles
    Full Name:
    Mike
    No, it couldn't be 50x more. SK has been testing like 10-15K per day. If the under reported numbers were so high, the testing would reflect that. If the numbers were 50x higher than reported, SK numbers would be growing substantially more than they are.
     
  12. rvp325

    rvp325 Karting

    Apr 30, 2019
    125
    New Jersey
    Full Name:
    Rahul
    #87 rvp325, Mar 17, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
    Social Media, e.g. Facebook, is a construct many have loathed in recent times, but here we are, it's a means to stay "connected" as most of us are home bound...

    Enforced and necessary quarantine has decimated small businesses worldwide. We are in a bear market. Millions across the world don't even make enough to have "retirement" plans, let's remember.

    In the past couple weeks, healthcare providers, the CDC/WHO, national and local gov't, and the private sector are working tirelessly to address the medical issues which are plaguing (no pun intended) our world. It may be possible to overcome this global crisis sooner than later given the level of cooperation worldwide.

    If it's any consolation, I assure you all, we in healthcare are not only taking this seriously, but doing so collectively. Here, locally, at Saint Barnabas Medical Center, Livingston, New Jersey (600 bed tertiary care hospital), all departments are maniacally staying on top the the medical literature (not the media), seeking input from larger academic institutions, and last but not least, staying on the front lines* holding firm and steady. I hope this provides some reassurance. We don't control the S&P500 or DJIA, but we are trying to get to the root of the problem.

    My amazing wife, an ER physician, is assessing potential COVID19 patients on a nightly basis fully gowned with protective gear head-to-toe (sexy, I know). And still helping Rafa navigate his online schooling when she has one eye open. As a Radiologist, one may assume I'm sheltered from disease, but believe me, we are not (these patients require imaging and pass through our department daily). We are all exposed to varying degrees.

    To everyone that is home bound, anxious on the sidelines, the entire medical establishment is working extremely hard. Stay positive, stay home!, and hold tight.

    My son, Rafael, is ecstatic that 4th grade has been cancelled, and actually asked me if 5th grade would be cancelled, as well. That is another story altogether. Gotta laugh.

    Rahul Pawar, M.D.
    Diagnostic Radiologist/Neuroradiologist
    Ferrari 348 Speciale #55
     
  13. FerrariSnowtrooper

    Mar 4, 2020
    23
    Full Name:
    Joe Bischoff
    Not quite sure what all is going to happen. I am in Ohio, school has been closed since Friday. I have 2 kids still in school who saw this like another Christmas break. That is, until there was talk of no prom, sports have all been cancelled, and the possibility of not going back to finish this school year at all. Personally, I am in good shape, and I know the kids would fare well as well. But my wife on the other hand, is high risk. She is on her 6th year of stage 4 cancer. She just quit her 2nd round of chemo cause it was just too rough. She's getting around okay now, but thinking of her getting infected bothers me. She says it doesn't matter how she goes, what's meant to be will happen. But I can't help but think we should react to what's happening with almost isolationist reaction. I'm not in a panick, and I don't want the kids to be either, but I certainly don't want her to get infected from our carelessness. We have plenty of food, water, and enough loose cash to last a while. This panicky buying though, is pretty crazy. We have about 15 rolls of TP, and when I go to buy some, I will probably buy a bulk pack. Not to be a hoarder, but just because we will need toilet paper. Things like that is what is bothering me. Just panic and shutdowns around us. The small town where we are is handling it pretty well, and I hope we can just adjust with good moods and acceptance. It seems to be alright so far. No real point here, just thinking out loud and putting this out there.
    Joe Bishoff
    3 wrecked 458's from salvage auctions
    Still in the barn
    Hopefully operable this year
     
  14. albkid

    albkid Formula Junior

    Jul 1, 2016
    318
    Full Name:
    Jim
    Joe:

    I was deeply moved by your story. My best wishes to you, the kids, and of course your wife.

    May God's grace envelope you and the family and keep all safe.

    Jim
     
  15. MDEL

    MDEL F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Feb 24, 2016
    3,557
    Southern Europe
    Full Name:
    Mario
    The title of this thread is coronavirus and the irony is that now is the world number one enemy. To preserve life and avoid the spreading of the virus contamination many countries, and mine is one of them, have imposed draconian measures to everyone like the state of emergency. Many of us will be in forced to confinement for sometime but, for a very good cause. Yesterday I treated the leader interior of my Ferrari with great care, wiped all the exterior to make it look pristine and covered it up afterwards. I don't now when this nightmare will end but it will happen eventually. By then the world will have changed and the new times probably will enable us to enjoy every moment we drive our Ferraris a lot more than what we did before.
     
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  16. vegasoul

    vegasoul Rookie

    Apr 26, 2016
    28
    My understanding is that patient 0 in Italy is not Chinese and have never traveled to China or any connection with China. The strain that is currently affecting Italy is the same strain that is ravaging Iran and it is not the strain that affects China. Coronavirus is discovered in China because China reacted like it is a bioattack.It doesn’t mean it originated there. The fact that the virus selectively target Asians who have high ACE2 expression Cause panic amongst the Chinese. it could have pretended business as usual like what the US government did in 2009 during the H1N1 pandemic and let nature run its course. 200,000 died around the world. My friend mom died cuz of it. Who is being the responsible party here?

    It is not a coincidence but divine intervention and god’s wrath that China is hit by the trade war, Hong Kong riots and then this coronavirus in less than a year. God bless America.
     
    maxemus likes this.
  17. EastMemphis

    EastMemphis Formula 3
    Owner Silver Subscribed

    May 25, 2019
    1,717
    Memphis, TN
    Full Name:
    John
    Perhaps I'm more of a child than I'd like to admit. I'm finding this slow motion train wreck to be incredibly interesting to watch. Each day, another frame of this crisis unfolds and everyday it looks like we're approaching chaos and the apocalypse. Each day things are getting both worse and better. Each day another restriction is announced, another closure, another postponement, another 5 or 10 percent drop in equities.

    Personally, I am heartened by the response the people of the US have already made. We are hunkering down and going to wait this one out. Sure, the economy is going to be smashed to bits but people who would have died horrible, painful deaths will be spared. For anyone who has watched someone with COPD die, it's not pretty. To those who have had pneumonia, they know the feeling of panic that comes when breath is difficult or impossible and the rel. Foisting this horror on our loved ones and neighbors is unconscionable. I'm am so glad the country is trading gold for lives. It's the absolute right thing to do. Eventually, this will pass and we will be stronger for it.

    My thanks go out to not only our heroic medical workers but also the grocery staff, truckers, delivery folks, and the rest who are manning their posts regardless of the threat and chaos. You folks will go down in history as the saviors of this mess.

    Round and round it goes, where it stops, nobody knows. Ashes, ashes, we all fall down!

    This little saying has its roots in the bubonic plague. How little things do change.
     
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  18. kes7u

    kes7u Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Oct 18, 2017
    1,136
    Shorewood, MN
    Full Name:
    Kevin
    So sorry to hear about your wife, Joe. Prayers going out to your wife and family.

    More prayers to everyone else out there as well. Be responsible, and be kind and helpful to each other if needed. Maybe some good can come from this, after all.

    Kevin
     
  19. 09Scuderia

    09Scuderia Formula 3

    Nov 20, 2011
    2,420
    USA
    Full Name:
    Max
    Prayers for your wife. Isolate, isolate, isolate. Assume everything needs wiping down etc. Let no one in your home. Anyone coming in they need to remove everything and probably shower. That is what we are doing.
     
  20. Hex

    Hex Karting

    May 1, 2009
    95
    #95 Hex, Mar 18, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
    Our nation and the world are grateful for your courage and your dedication and your expertise. I salute you sir. God bless you, your wife and your entire family. Stay well! I will pray for you and I will pray for Joe, his wife and his family as well. The stories you guys posted touched me deeply.
     
  21. kes7u

    kes7u Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Oct 18, 2017
    1,136
    Shorewood, MN
    Full Name:
    Kevin
    Interestingly, my life has changed very little thus far. Still going to work every day. Never eat at restaurants, but get takeout 3 times per week, which probably won't change. The only significant change will be not getting to climb 3x per week. And that just took effect starting yesterday, so haven't really felt it yet.

    Kevin
     
    Jacob Potts likes this.
  22. FerrariSnowtrooper

    Mar 4, 2020
    23
    Full Name:
    Joe Bischoff
    Thanks alot man
     
  23. FerrariSnowtrooper

    Mar 4, 2020
    23
    Full Name:
    Joe Bischoff
    Thank you very much
     
  24. FerrariSnowtrooper

    Mar 4, 2020
    23
    Full Name:
    Joe Bischoff
    Thanks for the response
     
  25. FerrariSnowtrooper

    Mar 4, 2020
    23
    Full Name:
    Joe Bischoff
    Thank you
     

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