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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Australia' started by Ferraridoc, Mar 21, 2020.

  1. moretti

    moretti Four Time F1 World Champ
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    news.com.au said 1399 dead yesterday (fake news ?)
     
  2. IanB

    IanB F1 World Champ
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    One of the nice things about that worldometer table, is that you can change the sorting by column. The scariest version is ordered by absolute deaths, which is why the media uses it, but if you sort by deaths per million population, the USA drops below Denmark. 44% of Covid cases are in New York state. Remove NY from the stats and USA drops between Cayman Islands and Iceland.

    Take out New Orleans and the US looks even better. Why the intensity in NY, LA and WA? Consider 20+ years of progressive politics.

    I have not been able to find a graphic of deaths by US City, only infections. Someone will eventually get around to this but I suspect for the moment that the progressive media and websites would rather not draw attention to the results of the most left-wing administrations in the country.
     
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  3. wrxmike

    wrxmike F1 Veteran
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    Looking at that chart, the number of cases in Australia of CV 19 seems to have an inverse relationship to the supply of toilet paper. We don't need a vaccine, just more bog rolls.
     
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  4. moretti

    moretti Four Time F1 World Champ
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    You lost me after "Looking at the chart" :confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:
     
  5. Gizzi

    Gizzi F1 Rookie
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    Fixed.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  6. Ferraridoc

    Ferraridoc F1 Veteran
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    Jun 20, 2012
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    OK, was busy last night, so didn't publish the daily update, so thanks Steve, for the morning figures. As at 5pm last night, we had 5552 total cases and 30 total deaths (0.54%). New cases yesterday: 190 - the 5th day in a row they have been less than the day before.
     
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  7. Aircon

    Aircon Eight Time F1 World Champ

    Jun 23, 2003
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    OMG

    Article: Is coronavirus a coverup of deadly 5G technology? | Euronews answers
    Is coronavirus a coverup of deadly 5G technology? | Euronews answers

    https://flip.it/.LNYCW
     
  8. simon klein

    simon klein F1 World Champ
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    This means you'll have to Gerni the Bobcat again.
     
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  9. AKA

    AKA F1 Rookie

    May 17, 2005
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    As we all know, if the headline is a question the answer is "no".
     
  10. moretti

    moretti Four Time F1 World Champ
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    If Woody Harrelson says so then it must be true

     
  11. Ferraridoc

    Ferraridoc F1 Veteran
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    OK, let's do a primer on what all these numbers mean. I'll keep it simple for uneducated idiot trolls with "street smarts", "logic", and a huge chip on their shoulder because they don't have a degree.

    The figures (freely available) are expressed in certain ways that give uniformity across regions, and so can be compared easily. "Confirmed cases" means just that - cases that have been confirmed by testing. There are two main problems: there is a lag time of a few days for the test results to make this list, and there are a lot (at least double) of cases in the community that have not been confirmed. "Total deaths" means death from Coronavirus. Confounding variables are: some deaths may be missed (a very low probability in these times), and some deaths may be from other diseases (the term is "co-morbidities") in a COVID-19 positive patient. If you divide total deaths by confirmed cases, you get the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - this is the commonest metric when used to express case numbers during the active phase of an epidemic. It's not perfect (as I have explained before), mainly because there is a lag between cases and deaths, but is very good at giving trends, which helps give feedback on whether any intervention is working. The actual CFR changes from day to day, and country to country, and cannot be calculated until the disease has run its course, and there are no more new cases reported, and no more new deaths reported. Even then it's still limited by the variables I mentioned above, and will always be higher than the actual numbers of deaths from the disease because not everyone with the disease will be counted as a confirmed case.

    A far better figure is the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR - which means Steve and Gary are rooted). This is the total deaths from the disease, divided by the actual number of cases with the disease. Again, due to lag, the figure won't be accurate until after the disease has run its course. And (here's the big one), we'll never know that number, unless there is 100% population testing, so it will always be theoretical.

    Another figure often quoted (which Ian alluded to) is the Crude Mortality rate. This is pretty easy - it's the number of deaths divided by the total population. It is also expressed as deaths per million of population.

    So long as you understand what these numbers mean, and their limitations, you can cut through the media hyperbole and monitor it yourself. I final word on what Peter is on about (not that anybody can ever figure out what he's on about). If you focus on "cases with an outcome", you will fall into the same errors that the previously mentioned figures have. We don't know enough about the disease make these calculations. If 1,000 people test positive, and you follow them, at two weeks, you might have 1 death and 19 recovered - that cohort of 20 is called "cases with an outcome" - does that mean the death rate is 5%? At four weeks, you might have 5 deaths and 495 recovered - is the rate now 1%? You can't tell, because you haven't followed the other 500, because that group doesn't have an "outcome". All you've done is circle the group you want and focus on that. That's a logical fallacy, commonly called "The Texas Sharp-Shooter Fallacy". We don't know yet how long people are going to stay positive without an "outcome" - we just don't have the data yet.

    When you're sitting at your keyboard, paranoid that people don't think you're as smart as you pretend you are, and needing to give your brain a little kick of dopamine to make yourself feel better, here's what you do: When you see something that you feel is wrong or needs debate, don't debate it. Instead, throw out an insult, and sit there, smugly waiting for a reply, and then let the fun begin. It doesn't matter whether you're wrong (which you mostly are), all that matters is that most civilised people, with better things to do, eventually give up for the sake of peace and quiet, and you can chalk up another victory in your sad, pathetic life.
     
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  12. Aircon

    Aircon Eight Time F1 World Champ

    Jun 23, 2003
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    That was a lot of typing to cover up a back pedal and some intellectual snobbery.

    I'm glad to see that you finally agree that your figures are erroneous! Congratulations. That's what I've been saying all along.

    Lots of digs and insults in there, so it's pretty clear it's you with the chip on a his shoulder, but I digress.
     
  13. simon klein

    simon klein F1 World Champ
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  14. Horse

    Horse Two Time F1 World Champ
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    TLDR


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  15. Aircon

    Aircon Eight Time F1 World Champ

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    Make an effort! It's a put down....you'll love it.
     
  16. FazzerPorscheman

    FazzerPorscheman F1 World Champ

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    LOL LOL LOL.

    Mate I’ve got tears in my eyes.
     
  17. Horse

    Horse Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Ok, I read it.

    I think you two need to get a room.

    I’ve never put that much time into you!!!!


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
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  18. Aircon

    Aircon Eight Time F1 World Champ

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    I agree. I'm flattered that Pat put in so much effort. I guess I really got under his skin.... Plus he was probably angry with himself for making a stupid post on the first placed.
     
  19. greg246

    greg246 F1 World Champ
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    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Aircon

    Aircon Eight Time F1 World Champ

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    OLIO

    Not my fault (it never is)
     
  21. Gizzi

    Gizzi F1 Rookie
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  22. kerrari

    kerrari F1 World Champ
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    Oct 22, 2004
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    Blame the morons who wouldn't play by the 'low level' rules (helped along by all the 'it's nothing, it's a hoax' comments), hence the escalation.
     
  23. kerrari

    kerrari F1 World Champ
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    So getting close to their annual flu deaths (+/- 35,000 per year over a 20-2 week period)
    These are the important part of the Worldometer page - attachment is for Australia; these datapoints have not been available for USA for about the past week, they were available before... And once again - it's not about the DEATHS it's about the overwhelming of the hospital systems.( I thought Greg was going to explain that to you in the shower the other night?:p)
    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  24. moretti

    moretti Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Someone dropped the soap ........ :p
     
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  25. JCR

    JCR F1 Veteran
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    Mar 14, 2005
    6,562
    H-Town, Tejas
    As of today in Houston, Texas population 2.5 Millions (9 deaths).
    https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/03/05/man-woman-confirmed-to-be-first-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-harris-county/
    As for the total deaths in the article, they are counting areas beyond the Metropolitan Statistical Area (7.5 MM) which is only 34 dead.
     

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