Day 6 in Isolation....I’m starting to run low....Geez I hate being in the klink....:-)[ATTACH]
Day 6 in Isolation....I’m starting to run low....Geez I hate being in the klink.... Image Unavailable, Please Login
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-investment-board-braces-for-chinese-takeovers-of-distressed-australian-assets-20200326-p54e3z.html
Hmm. Some flawed data in that one, and some rather stretchy conclusions based on shaky assumptions. They're using Italian data, and even at this early stage, the Australian experience is different - lower hospitalisation rates, lower ICU rates, lower death rate. They assume a rate of increase of 20%, which is OK, given that the rate was 23% at submission, but the rate, after peaking at 25%, has now dropped to 9% (yes, this will change up or down, which is why it's hard use predictive modelling). They're assuming a 10 day stay in ICU, which seems about right, but again, this is from overseas data. We haven't had enough ICU admissions here yet to give a meaningful estimate. Models are poor predictors, and very small changes in the set up parameters can lead to vastly different outcomes.
True. On a separate note, do you have any colleagues who just returned from an Antarctic conference cruise?
