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Coronavirus live update

Discussion in 'F1' started by Ferrari 308 GTB, Feb 29, 2020.

  1. Nembo1777

    Nembo1777 F1 Veteran
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    Brilliant sentence I just read in an article in the local comparing different Corona strategies in Sweden and Denmark:

    If you think fighting disease is expensive try disease.

    End of quote.

    Being half French half Swedish this is the first time ever I see Sweden being less effective than France,they are being far too wait and see hands off. Denmark in contrast is in full confinement with closed borders.
     
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  2. Ferrari 308 GTB

    Ferrari 308 GTB F1 Veteran

    Feb 21, 2015
    5,917
    Painful to watch him slap down the poor reporter yesterday , at least Cuomo seems to be giving some honest answers.

    ps i'm not American, just watching from afar.
     
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  3. johnireland

    johnireland F1 Rookie
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    Mar 19, 2017
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    A million years ago, when I was young, I met a guy who was one of the last to be devastated by polio. His legs were in braces, and luckily he didn't need canes as well because his arms and hands were so withered that watching him try to eat or pick up a cup of coffee was like watching one potential train wreck after another. He was abandoned by the educational system. Shuffled off into "classes for the handicapped" where he received no training in becoming truly independent. In reality he could have been taught many skills but the thinking at that time was that he was already a ward of the system. He got SDI and a worker who came and bathed him and dressed him and did his shopping, etc. He became exactly what they trained him to be...totally dependent. Perhaps if his disability had come later in his life, like Charles Krauthammer, he would have had the knowledge that he could build his own future...but his illness struck him as a young child and so he never learned how to be independent. Requiring everyone to be involved with a national service system will push them farther than anything I can think of. If they need "caregivers" they can be organized with others with other disabilities and they can become caregivers to each other...and along the way they may discover they can do much much more than they are now given the chance to accomplish. My friend could have done many things...he could have been an air traffic controller, he could have become a psychiatrist, he could have become many things. So yes, if your daughter reads at a HS level, she has much to learn about how she can contribute to herself and her world.

    I'm not talking about a 13M person military. I am talking about giving basic military training to all who can accomplish it (my friend and your daughter would not be trained to be soldiers, but they could be put into physical training that could add to their health and strength, and they could receive training to become support roles. They would discover that they are part of the system, not excluded from it. After the basic military training, some would remain in a military role, while others would become part of a large public service program. If a person was interested in the law, they would be assigned to the legal system...working with police, in the prison system, in the courts, etc. People interested in a career in medicine would be put to work in hospitals, nursing homes, EMS technicians. People interested in becoming educators would be placed into that system, people interested in become architects could be placed in public service building structures for public parks, etc. etc etc.

    It is a fact that young people who have served in the military do better in college (as a whole) than do students (as a whole) who go straight from HS into college.
     
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  4. Natkingcolebasket69

    Rossa Subscribed

    793 in Italy... that’s a lot again... when does it stop?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. DF1

    DF1 F1 World Champ
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    BaWü
  6. DF1

    DF1 F1 World Champ
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    BaWü
  7. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    New York finally able to ramp up more testing per capita than Korea or China, and previous cluster hotspot numbers showing slow of spread...

     
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  8. Mitch Alsup

    Mitch Alsup F1 Veteran

    Nov 4, 2003
    6,586
    If you are talking about every person between the ages of 18 and 21 you are talking about 13M people.
    The way this number arrives is you take the current population 330M and take the median maximal age (72) and calculate 3*330M/72 = 13.75M; I rounded down.

    If you restrict yourself to every "able bodied" person between 18 and 21, the number goes down to 12.5M

    I am actually not in disagreement with the concept that every "able bodied" person needs to give something back to their country of origin. But you used the term military. All I was doing is pointing out that there is a useful and conscious difference between "everyone" and "all able bodied" in the age group between 18 and 21.
     
  9. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
  10. johnireland

    johnireland F1 Rookie
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    I'm for the able minded as well. When everyone realizes they can be useful and puts that realization to work, they gain self respect. And if we run out of things for people to do...well I guess that means things are getting better. I would venture the number of available bodies will vary through the years. The great thing about basic military training is that it builds you up at the same time as it humbles you. It teaches both leadership and teamwork.
     
  11. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
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    That asterisk (*) for Japan may partially explain why they look so good compared to other countries. Wonder how much "charter flights" represents?
     
  12. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    That chart actually illustrates how poorly they and murika as a whole looks; in terms of being able to proficiently test the population for the virus. They are dead last and murika as a whole is 2nd last...
     
  13. energy88

    energy88 F1 World Champ
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    My comment was in reference to an earlier chart of this type (below) for Japan that is still unexplained. Were they doing something special that caused their numbers to rise slower than anybody else? One thought was that they were fudging the numbers so as to not put the Olympic Games in jeopardy of being cancelled. Time will tell.

    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
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  14. albkid

    albkid Karting

    Jul 1, 2016
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    Jim
    I came across an interview of Dr.Larry Brilliant, who helped to eradicate smallpox and postulates how many people will get sick from the virus. He speaks of tens of million or hundreds of million of sick people.
    https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    From the WHO.int Situation Reports for daily data on infections and deaths on a country-by-country basis, I tabulation data for (2) two-week periods, 3-6-20 to 3-13-20 and 3-13-20 to 3-20-20 for China, Korea, Italy, Iran, and the USA. I computed the percentage changes for infections and deaths. I found China rates had fallen to single digits. Korean infection rate for the second period has fallen about in half to 10%. USA infections lag Italy infections by one week. USA infections lag the Chinese by 17.5 days. Of course, the populations of the countries are quite different and the distributions of the loci of infections are different as well. I regret that FerrariChat removed the column formatting.

    The tables are an absolutely simplistic tabulation of the rates of change of infections and deaths for two arbitrarily selected time periods. Nevertheless, I wonder what conclusions, if any, one can reach about the growth of USA infections based on Dr. Brilliant's claim of worldwide infections in the tens or hundreds of million of sick people.

    Analysis of COVID-19 Infection and Deaths Rates for Selected Countries for (2) Two-Week Periods
    3-06-20 3-13-20 3-06-20 3-13-20
    Infections Infections Increase Deaths Deaths Increase
    China 80,711 80,991 0.3 % 3,045 3,180 4 %
    Korea 6,284 7,979 27 % 42 66 57 %
    Italy 3,858 15,113 292 % 148 1,016 586 %
    Iran 3,513 10,075 187 % 107 429 301 %
    USA 148 1,264 754 % 10 36 260 %

    3-13-20 3-20-20 3-13-20 3-20-20
    Infections Infections Increase Deaths Deaths Increase
    China 80,711 81,416 1 % 3,180 3,261 3 %
    Korea 7,979 8,979 10 % 66 102 55 %
    Italy 15,113 47,021 211 % 1,016 4,032 297 %
    Iran 10,075 19,644 95 % 429 1,433 234 %
    USA 1,264 15,219 1,104 % 36 201 458 %


    Notes: 1. Percentages reflect week-to-week increases. Data from www.WHO.int Situation Reports.
    2. US infections on 3-20-20 approximately equal to Italy (15,113) on 3-13-20.
    3. US infections on 3-20-20 are between infection figures for China (14,411) on 2-02-20 and
    (17,238) on 2-03-20.
    4. US infections on 3-20-20 lag Italy by 7 days.
    5. US infections on 3-20-20 lag China by 17.5 days.
     
  15. Isobel

    Isobel F1 Veteran
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    Azerbaijan up another 11 cases to 55 total. Border with Iran was closed a while ago, however visitors from Iran prior to the ban contributed towards the majority of cases initially. F1 race ? Not a chance, imho.

    Canada is a long way from flatlining the volume of cases, we’re now at 2300 with Quebec alone incurring 5 deaths, I’m certain a race won’t occur here as currently scheduled either.
     
  16. Surfah

    Surfah F1 Rookie

    Dec 20, 2011
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    #741 Surfah, Mar 22, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2020
  17. Dilusha

    Dilusha Formula Junior

    Dec 10, 2016
    667
    Britain is where Italy was a couple of weeks ago. Italy was 5883 infected with 233 dead. And Britain now has 5018 cases with exactly the same number of deaths. 233! :(
     
  18. william

    william F1 World Champ

    Jun 3, 2006
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    Hahaha
    You come out with the most ridiculous ideas, really ...
     
  19. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #744 freshmeat, Mar 22, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
    Are they admitting every person who tests positive?

    Article doesn’t really share much detail, only mentions that those with severe symptoms will need a ventilator, which is a small chunk of the “20% who needs to be hospitalized”...but it also sounds like they are trying to admit everyone else beyond that 20% hence the “surge tent” for ppl w even mild symptoms? I wonder what the criteria is among the positive cases for who gets hospitalized and who is sent home to self-isolate if there is even any...seems crazy that they would try to take in everyone?!

     
  20. ingegnere

    ingegnere Formula 3
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    Sep 12, 2004
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    #745 ingegnere, Mar 22, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
    I understand your focus on mortality rates - we all want to believe that if we unfortunately catch this thing we will not die - but it’s the rate of infection, I think, that needs to be controlled.

    The number of infected people is key because beyond driving the financial market panic due to imposed restrictions (on going out and so spending money) where infection is high it lands many more people in hospital than these can handle and so the hospitals are overwhelmed. Overwhelmed to the point of where a person who would normally be treated and discharged under “normal” circumstances will die. And per the WHO person I saw on TV, half of the 80%, so fully 40%, of cases considered to have “mild” symptoms can experience some form of pneumonia. So you can see how this can degenerate quickly.

    The other thing about the mortality rate in Italy is that it’s very likely skewed (higher, as you posit) based on the fact that the rate of new infections is rising so fast that I believe indicates there are MANY, MANY more undetected infections than the country even thinks they have unfortunately.

    Hence why it’s critical to stop the spread.
     
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  21. ingegnere

    ingegnere Formula 3
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    Sep 12, 2004
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    4 of those 5 were in one particular seniors residence but doesn’t mean things are under control despite best efforts by government to lock down the people. Too many stupid people still running around in groups.

    Pretty sure the local government will not hesitate to force the cancellation of the race even if cases here fall to zero to avoid reinfecting by visitors.
     
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  22. tifosi12

    tifosi12 Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Wow.

    Never thought about Montreal being a question mark, but you might be right.
     
  23. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
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  24. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #749 freshmeat, Mar 22, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
    This is the first I’ve heard of this rate of pneumonia onset.

    The latest from WHO I could find:
    “WHO says about 80% of people with Covid-19 recover without needing any specialist treatment. Only about one person in six becomes seriously ill “and develops difficulty breathing”.

    Is it 1 in 6 (16.6%) of overall infected that would require specialist treatment / hospitalization...or 16.6% of the 20% of severe cases? Unclear to me but either way, far lower than you’re quoted 40%

     
  25. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    Those figures are a result of Chinese natives returning from other countries ie imported. There have been no new cases originating from within mainland China, not even Hubei.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/china-scrambles-to-curb-rise-in-imported-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21903C

     

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