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Coronavirus live update

Discussion in 'F1' started by Ferrari 308 GTB, Feb 29, 2020.

  1. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
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    #701 freshmeat, Mar 20, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
    I’m being serious about it, still doesn’t change the hard data. Mortality rate is on a continuous decline with testing not even fully ramped up yet and testing here isnt even including those who are asymptomatic.

    At least 19,644 confirmed cases and now 250 dead...mortality rate dropped again to 1.27%

    At this rate, barring catastrophic healthcare failure, I don’t see how the coronavirus threat won’t fall under 1% mortality in murika, officially putting it in the same “lethalness” category as the common flu. But again, as also mentioned the elderly and immunodeficient are still exceptionally vulnerable to the vivid-19 disease and will remain so until a vaccine comes.

     
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  2. Birel

    Birel Formula 3
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    Mortality rate is a moving target resolved only by death. Published stats for USA show only 147 recovered and 19,233 still active from 19,643 reported. 100% of the 19,233 active cases (and counting.....) are not going to be immortal.
     
  3. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #703 freshmeat, Mar 20, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
    Number of Deaths is the ONLY non-moving target right now which is concretely reported on.

    As long as the rate of infected continues to outpace the rate of ppl dying, the percentage is going to keep dropping. It’s been consistently and incrementally dropping over 2 weeks now...

     
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  4. Ferrari 308 GTB

    Ferrari 308 GTB F1 Veteran

    Feb 21, 2015
    5,917
    Common Flu mortality rate is around 0.1 % in USA (NOT 1 %) ..the Spanish Flu of 1918 was around 2 %.

    https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
     
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  5. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    never said common flu is 1%, simply indicated that at this continued rate, it will fall under 1% which is in a similar (<1%) category as the common flu along with other more common pathogens...
     

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  6. Ferrari 308 GTB

    Ferrari 308 GTB F1 Veteran

    Feb 21, 2015
    5,917
    It appears to be 10x more lethal than common flu, i would not say that is a similar category at all.
     
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  7. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #707 freshmeat, Mar 20, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
    How do you know how far or short below 1% it will fall (if it does or doesn’t continue on this trend)? The final number in murika won’t be clear until the spread fully stops ie no more new cases.

    again, I will reemphasize what I said “at this continued rate it will fall under 1% in murika”...never said 1% = 0.1% and if it does fall under 1% it will be more aligned w the common flu than other more seriously deadlier pathogens
     
  8. Giallo 550

    Giallo 550 Karting

    May 25, 2019
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    Exactly, and according to worldometers, the percentage of closed cases that resulted in death is now up to 11%. This is just the tip of the iceberg as hospitals become overcrowded and selfish morons do not understand the concept of exponential growth and continue to go out and party.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
     
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  9. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
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    #709 freshmeat, Mar 20, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
    The numbers I posted is specific only to murika, not the world. The outcomes of each country will vary by the measures each one takes, infrastructure, make up of its population etc

    With zero deaths, Singapore Is the complete opposite of what’s going on in Italy, same goes for Taiwan etc. to generalize like that is pointless.

     
  10. Ferrari 308 GTB

    Ferrari 308 GTB F1 Veteran

    Feb 21, 2015
    5,917
    Singapore has 2 deaths
     
  11. Giallo 550

    Giallo 550 Karting

    May 25, 2019
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    Then we are so screwed.
     
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  12. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #712 freshmeat, Mar 20, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
    OK gee...still has insignificant impact to the point i made nor to the data...and just so you get a fuller context / broader spectrum here’s more data for you to mull over illustrating the biggest killers in murika.

    As of this post, more ppl in murika die from car accidents, firearms, suicides, drugs etc etc

    Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
    • Heart disease: 647,457
    • Cancer: 599,108
    • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
    • Diabetes: 83,564
    • Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
    • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
    • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
    CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    2018: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/11/29/us-life-expectancy-suicide-50-year-peak-and-drugs-cause-death/2146829002/
     
  13. Ferrari 308 GTB

    Ferrari 308 GTB F1 Veteran

    Feb 21, 2015
    5,917
    So are you personally concerned /worried ?
     
  14. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #714 freshmeat, Mar 21, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
    Far less concerned with the virus now than I was 3 weeks ago, and so long as we continue to slow the spread, increase testing, help keep hospitals from being overwhelmed I’m very optimistic.

    I’m still concerned by the threat it poses to the elderly and even more concerned by all the baggage that comes with with the virus, like the xenophobia freely proliferating itself right now even in a diverse population like San Francisco, the hit on the markets and economy, silly panic etc. Those tp hoarders have enough toilet paper to last them at least 2 years of full on sh*tting.

    I’ve been doing my civic duty and have been working from home since even before the lockdowns were imposed, and was adamantly urging others even on this forum to do likewise and keep their travels in check. You can see in the Italy coronavirus thread how the mindset diverged and tragically, the people of Italy are suffering tremendously for not taking it more seriously at the outset. Most tech companies in the Bay Area had already begun encouraging employees to work remotely as early as mid Feb, and by beginning of Mar almost all of the other major companies followed similar protocol.
     
  15. Isobel

    Isobel F1 Veteran
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    “First of all, I think that’s a false equivalency to compare traffic accidents with coronavirus, that’s totally way out. When you have something new and it’s emerging and you really can’t predict the impact it’s going to have, and you take a look at what’s gone on in China and you see what’s going on right now in Italy, and what’s happening in New York City, I don’t think with any moral conscience you can say, ‘why don’t we just let it rip and happen and let ‘x’ percent of the people die’. I don’t understand that reasoning at all”.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci
     
  16. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #716 freshmeat, Mar 21, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
    Huh? That’s never been my mindset at all nor have I said anything like that. I’m just breaking down the data...I can’t possibly keep highlighting every other thing I mention along with the data so if you haven’t been following the entire thread, apologies for the lack of continuity, maybe you should keep up before jumping to a conclusion like that.

    I’ve even already touched on the pointlessness of comparing Italy, China to murika 1:1 a few posts up. What you can extrapolate is things like the rate of infection, incubation period and general trend lines etc but when it comes to mortality, you only need to see the broad spectrum out there...based on data Singapore has a near 0% mortality rate while Italy is a whopping 8.5% and because as already mentioned, those countries have handled the situation differently, their infrastructures are different, there population makeup is different etc and hence their outcomes have been very different.

    Data is data...if the probability of any of us dying from a car accident is higher than us dying from coronavirus, which one should you be more wary of? If the mortality rate of this virus continues to incrementally decline like it has (from 3% down to 1.27% in just 2 weeks) it will likely go under 1% especially when testing gets fully ramped up and caters beyond just ppl who have symptoms...isn’t that extremely favorable odds for any of us in a world with abundantly many more different threats?
     
  17. cloverleaf

    cloverleaf Karting

    Jun 16, 2013
    90
    Singapore didn't magically contain the virus and the death rate, they adopted extremely strict measures:
    https://nationalpost.com/health/how-taiwan-and-singapore-managed-to-contain-covid-19-while-letting-normal-life-go-on
    It does not just happen. They were prepared because they've been through SARS before.

    There's an 8-14 days delay between infection and first symptoms/case detection, and another 8 days of delay between the first symptoms and death. So it is wrong to look at the numbers and relax. That is precisely what Italy did at the end of February.
     
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  18. Ferrari 308 GTB

    Ferrari 308 GTB F1 Veteran

    Feb 21, 2015
    5,917
    Ohh ok ..how are things there in the White House?o_O
     
  19. william

    william F1 World Champ

    Jun 3, 2006
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    ‘Not sure we’re NOT infecting people,’ French police union tells RT as govt fails to provide protection against Covid-19

    https://www.rt.com/news/483706-france-police-coronavirus-lockdown/

    Police could be spreading coronavirus instead of enforcing the lockdown in France due to a lack of masks and gloves, a police union spokesperson told RT after the government was accused of not issuing protective gear to officers.

    "Security officers, police and other people, who uphold law and order in the country, need to be protected. This virus doesn't distinguish between police, medics and other citizens," Christophe Crepin, spokesperson for the law enforcement union, France Police – Policiers en colere, told RT.

    "We are not even sure that we – police officers – are not potentially infecting people when we do our checks. So, we need masks and other protective equipment to keep us safe and others."

    Around 100,000 police officers were deployed to enforce a strict 15-day nationwide lockdown that took effect on Tuesday.

    However, professional unions said the government has failed to provide the officers with enough protection. The biggest police union – Alliance Police nationale – warned that its members will walk off the job unless they are given facemasks, gloves and hand sanitizer gels.
     
  20. william

    william F1 World Champ

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    Most military defeats started when one side grossly understimated the strength of the other.
     
  21. william

    william F1 World Champ

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    #721 william, Mar 21, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020

    So many prejudices exposed in so few sentences.
     
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  22. Isobel

    Isobel F1 Veteran
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    #722 Isobel, Mar 21, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
    1) I’ve read all of your posts

    2) YOU posted a list of multiple things that cause death, obviously to infer the insignificance the coronavirus poses in the big picture.

    3) I posted Fauci’s comment of similar speculations on the governments’ overreaction by politicians in the United States. So why the ‘HUH?’. I responded utilizing the Doctor’s comment to advise you it is 100% contrary to your opinion.

    4) In your response, you continue to apply a naive contrived narrative based on your own subjective ‘data’ whereby the USA will be better at controlling the pandemic based on Singapore’s results. As mentioned above by others, countries applying draconian measures have fared better than others and it’s a given Americans tend to prefer more of an Italian lifestyle than those of authoritarian regimes (ie; Spring Break- beaches in Florida). That’s not to say it won’t but quite a stretch to infer it will.
    You may not have heard but there are reports throughout the country that there is a shortage of necessary medical supplies and health professionals have had to resort to compromised solutions in the interim. If Covid numbers rise, the situation will not improve.

    5) Although it’s a positive trait to have unbridled optimism when facing this pandemic, I hope you’d agree it should not come at the expense of the vulnerable, which I believe you might be advocating here.
     
  23. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    #723 freshmeat, Mar 21, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
    Point out a single post where I remotely said murika will be better at containment?

    I have only said that I think it bodes well for murika that mortality rate continues to decline at a consistent pace and that as testing continues to ramp up, that percentage will only get smaller. This dwindling percentage will therefore mean the virus will kill fewer Americans than most news outlets suggest. I’ve highlighted that they’ve been extremely good at stoking fear and sensationalizing the numbers towards panic and apocalyptic ends. Has this materialized? They never say that the death figures they do like to sensationalize is based on unencumbered exponential growth! But is that the case now? Absolutely not.

    how many times must I underscore that I’ve said we need to do our civic duty to protect the vulnerable? Even mentioned that when the spread slows/stops extra caution/steps must be made for the elderly and immunodeficient until a vaccine becomes available. But it cannot be a series of further lockdowns; it’s just not sustainable. How many times must I say we need to continue to take this seriously and do our civic duty to help stop the spread? I’ve been at home since Feb 28, far earlier than any announcement of shelter-in-place orders.

    you obviously glazed over all of that for whatever reason? You can ignore all of the above and just look at the mortality rate data, it is on a consistent decline and I hope that trend continues.

    punch holes into the daily updates data and tell me why the mortality rate should not continue to go down then if you disagree.

     
  24. Isobel

    Isobel F1 Veteran
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    You’re running now because you overspoke. No problem. I understand.
     
  25. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,704
    it’s a bloody tragic comedy...and every time he opens his mouth at a press conference, markets take a big sh*t.


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