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Coronavirus live update

Discussion in 'F1' started by Ferrari 308 GTB, Feb 29, 2020.

  1. Mitch Alsup

    Mitch Alsup F1 Veteran

    Nov 4, 2003
    6,659
    To reach their minds, one often has to resort to high speed lead poisoning--which completely defeats the purpose of reaching their minds...........

    No the only way to reach them is to let them make their own mistakes--AND pay the consequences.
     
  2. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,802
    You're not understanding the correlation that has been drawn from other countries.

    In my previous post, I highlighted the clear correlation between mortality rate and infection rate; in those countries the mortality rate ONLY DECLINED once the infection rates hit their peaks. And as I mentioned in that same previous post, as testing continues to get fully ramped up, the mortality % is only going to go down further based on the data collected thus far.

    This is a clear, positive signal. Data doesn't lie and I trust it EXPONENTIALLY more than murika media; the fact no one is reporting on it tells me it's good news and good news doesn't sell, only panic and fear.

    Also, now the government has acknowledged that chloroquine which I also mentioned earlier, may be a viable stop-gap treatment until a tested vaccine. AGAIN, murika news media not reporting on this coz it's probably too good of a piece of news.

    The flooding of hospitals and emergency beds and ventilators narrrative is also rapidly fizzling out, but I'm glad governments over-reacted and had those in place. Occupancy is nowhere near the exponential numbers news outlets have been sensationalizing, even in the hardest hit places like New York and Seattle.
     
  3. Nembo1777

    Nembo1777 F1 Veteran
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  4. kraftwerk

    kraftwerk Two Time F1 World Champ

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    I hear you, and yes I can tend to go along with alot of what you say, especially as it seems bad news appears to sell/spread better than good, trouble is there is so many outlets for it, and conflicting views, so I would imagine most are going to err on the side of caution. Personally I really want to hear good news, and believe it.
     
  5. ChipG

    ChipG Formula 3

    May 26, 2011
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    Santa Monica, CA
  6. sp1der

    sp1der Formula 3
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    The media never let facts ruin a good story
     
  7. Alcav5

    Alcav5 Formula 3
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    Here is a positive results story from my area.
    I do not think it's fake , but I have never heard of the Timestelegram publication.


    Westchester neurosurgeon has coronavirus. What he wants you to know

    Posted at 9:35 AM

    A little more than a week ago, Ezriel Kornel caught a cold.


    He woke up with a little bit of congestion and some minor discomfort on Monday, March 9.

    No fever, no cough.


    So Kornel, 66, went to work. He’s a neurosurgeon who works both in Westchester County and in the New York City area, and he’d been consistently watching the news and talking with colleagues about the novel coronavirus.

    He knew the symptoms — fever, fatigue, cough, shortness of breath. And he had none of them.

    “To me, it’s important that people understand that they don’t have to start with a fever,” Kornel said. “Because it was so mild, there was no reason for me to think that I had anything other than a cold.”

    By the evening of Wednesday, March 11, Kornel said his condition deteriorated. He developed a fever, body aches, chills. It felt like the flu.

    He called the emergency room, went in the following morning and got tested for coronavirus and other viral illnesses.

    He got the results back two days later: positive for COVID-19.


    “To me, it’s important that people understand they don’t have to start with a fever. That’s misleading,” Kornel said, speaking via Skype from his home in Bedford Hills, Westchester County.


    “What I think is so critical for people to know is that if they get symptoms that are even those of a mild cold, they should assume until proven otherwise that they have COVID-19 right now, and isolate themselves.”

    He’s not sure how he came in contact with the virus, and trying to identify every patient or co-worker or person he might have gotten it from is a pointless effort, he said.

    The most important thing now, he said, is to let others know what to look out for. And if anyone has any symptoms — flu-like or not — social distancing is going to be key.

    “If I had realized that it starts as a simple cold, I wouldn’t have gone into the office. I would have started quarantining myself that Monday,” he said.

    “If (people) have any symptoms that seem like a cold or a flu, they should assume they have COVID-19 until proven otherwise ... You don’t want to have to regret having infected and gotten sick a loved one or a friend or a colleague.”

    Now, more than a week into the course of the virus, Kornel said he’s starting to feel much better.

    He’s got more energy, less soreness and can get out of bed more than just once or twice a day.

    He’s hoping to be asymptomatic by the end of the week, and after an additional seven days without symptoms, he said he’ll be going back to work.

    There is currently neither a vaccine nor an approved treatment for the virus.


    While younger people may experience the illness as a bad cold with a fever, the concern is that older people and those who have additional medical conditions will develop a more severe form of COVID-19.

    Kornel said his particular experience with coronavirus was unpleasant, but not unbearable.

    He knows he’s one of the lucky ones.


    “I actually feel fortunate because now I can really be involved in the healthcare system without worrying that I can contract it,” Kornel said.

    “I can be on the front line, and that’s great because I was going to be out there anyway.”
     
  8. Ferrari 360 CS

    Ferrari 360 CS F1 Veteran
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    Very true! Much to my surprise the president of South Africa has actually taken very drastic steps and for the most part people are doing social distancing and working from home however as with everywhere there are those who simply don't listen, for them the government has actually put temporary laws in place like in Italy to fine or even imprison people. Those found guilty of spreading fake news are also liable for a fine or imprisonment, quite how they would prove this is another matter.

    Of course the concern here is SA has one of the largest % of people living with HIV so any illness could according to what I read today kill 350 000 people fairly quickly.
     
  9. Kiwi Nick

    Kiwi Nick Formula 3

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    We certainly know the death toll. But, as you say, testing in the US is low. If anything there are far more cases than those that positive tests. So, the death rate is likely far less than predicted. It is basic math. But, it is also a moving target and the data may not be current. But, the trend favors lower than predicted rates of death. And, now it appears as though the president has compelled the FDA to approve the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine as a therapy. These are tried and well-understood drugs that have been around since 1945, and they have shown to be 75% effective in human tests in France. Millions of people take these drugs every day to prevent or fight malaria.
     
  10. SimCity3

    SimCity3 Formula 3

    Mecca of road racing - the TT has also been cancelled.
     
  11. sp1der

    sp1der Formula 3
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    Another complete set on inactivity from UK government tonight other than a load of baseless claims it will be contained in 12 weeks.
     
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  12. LVP488

    LVP488 F1 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2017
    3,149
    France
    While the FOM has announced that Monaco GP was delayed, the ACM (Automobile Club de Monaco) then said it is actually cancelled for this year (as well as the Historic GP).
     
  13. 375+

    375+ F1 Veteran
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  14. Nembo1777

    Nembo1777 F1 Veteran
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    Very sad I love the historic GP it's like spring itself is cancelled....now what will be the fate of Le Mans classic? Same no doubt... I need to plan a major nature hike in a national park instead...
     
  15. sp1der

    sp1der Formula 3
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    I think classic for sure will get cancelled as only a few weeks after 24hrs and that is already moved
     
  16. albkid

    albkid Formula Junior

    Jul 1, 2016
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    I hear you and we all can tell stories of how we learned the hard way.

    However, it remains for me that a goal of parenting is to help kids from making clearly bad choices.
    But sometimes, I agree, they have to experience the consequence of a bad decision because they will not change their point of view.

    The fear, though, is a choice that causes irreparable harm, and I believe that is every parents deepest fear.
     
  17. lagunacc

    lagunacc Karting

    Aug 24, 2013
    156
    Order them from China for $15 / 50 and you'll have them in 1-2 weeks.
    But the OP was right about people wearing masks in Asia for just about any reason.


    Toilet paper as a store of value - who knew. A glimpse into the Thunberg future.
     
  18. ChipG

    ChipG Formula 3

    May 26, 2011
    1,060
    Santa Monica, CA
    Great explanation of what’s going on any why it’s different than the flu:

    Why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu?

    It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

    Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

    Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

    Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

    H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

    Fast forward.

    Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

    This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

    And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

    That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

    We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

    Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

    And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

    Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not cool right now.

    #flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.
     
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  19. freshmeat

    freshmeat F1 Veteran

    Aug 30, 2011
    6,802
    #670 freshmeat, Mar 19, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
    Mortality rate continuing to decline stateside...at least 11,274 confirmed cases and now 157 deaths, that brings us down from 1.5% (just from this morning) to 1.39%...
     
  20. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini F1 World Champ
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    Mar 2, 2005
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    I live in Switzerland and we cannot order anything from China.

    Marcel Massini
     
  21. DF1

    DF1 F1 World Champ
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    Apr 10, 2007
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    BaWü
    Nice report on the smart biotech people fighting for all of us! - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-19/this-famous-aids-researcher-wants-to-find-a-coronavirus-cure

    It seems obvious now that David Ho, arguably the world’s most famous AIDS researcher, would get involved in seeking a treatment for Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. It seems obvious that he would redirect the work of his several dozen scientists at the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center. That he would, as he says, “rob Peter to pay Paul” to get started with funds meant for the lab’s HIV studies. That he would receive $2.1 million from the Jack Ma Foundation in Hangzhou, China, without even asking and an additional $6 million from other private donors, among them a few very concerned businesspeople.

    But in late December, when Ho was tracking reports of a few cases of unexplained pneumonia in Wuhan, it wasn’t obvious he’d be needed. “We were paying attention but didn’t think we would get involved. It seemed rare—and over there,” he says. In early January, as his lab changed its affiliation from Rockefeller University to Columbia University and moved to Upper Manhattan, the situation in Wuhan had become worse. Ho still wasn’t sure if he should get involved. “The scientists in China were already doing so much,” he says. Many of those scientists, in Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai, are former students of his. “They could very well do the job.”

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    Featured in Bloomberg Businessweek, March 23, 2020. Subscribe now.
    Photographer: Samantha Casolari for Bloomberg Businessweek
    He’d also seen funders lose interest in emerging diseases after the immediate panic about an outbreak subsided. Severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, for example, had been contained relatively quickly in 2002, and as soon as it was, money for research became scarce. Ho’s lab had developed antibodies that could have been used to pursue treatments for SARS, another coronavirus, but it was too late—he couldn’t raise the $20 million or so he needed to continue pressing forward on his own. “No one seemed to care,” he says. “That’s frustrating.” If he’d found the money, it’s possible he’d be closer to a treatment for the new coronavirus.

    By mid-January the magnitude of this epidemic was becoming clear. The Chinese government was making plans to quarantine the city of Wuhan, and four other countries reported cases. Scientists had identified the virus and shared its gene sequence. Ho also believed that this time the Chinese government, for one, would provide funding for sustained research. “They’ve learned their lesson,” he says. He decided to get involved.

    Eight weeks later, the virus has taken hold around the world. Counting the ill and calculating the rates of infection and death are daily, hourly exercises in caution and dread. The 1918 flu pandemic killed at least 50 million people. The HIV pandemic has so far infected 75 million and killed 32 million. The death rate for Covid-19 appears to be much lower—it remains uncertain—but the illness spreads easily. If it reaches only 1% of the global population, that would mean 75 million people would be infected, and at the current mortality rates, 1 million would die.

    Scientists at Ho’s lab, and at Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Regeneron, and at least 10 other drug and biotech companies, are working as quickly as they can to identify treatments. This virus is part of a family they’ve come to know. They’re rushing to test old compounds even as they devise programs to create new ones. Among the furthest along is Gilead Sciences Inc., which is testing remdesivir, an antiviral drug tried on Ebola patients, on coronavirus patients around the world. Gilead expects to report initial results in April.

    Scientists say they can tame this coronavirus, but for a while it will move faster than they’ll be able to. It may be a year or more before any specific treatment for Covid-19 is available. Until then we’ll have to contain it with distance and soap and the drugs we already have.

    Even once there’s a treatment, it’s probable that Covid-19 will remain with us for longer than we’d like. Completely wiping out something this widespread is exceedingly difficult, Ho is quick to say. Only one such virus has been eradicated: smallpox. That took about 20 years.

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    Alejandro Chavez, center, with doctoral students Samuel Resnick and Debbie Hong.
    Photographer: Samantha Casolari for Bloomberg Businessweek
    On an early March morning, before New York City began closing down, Ho took some time to talk about the work under way at his lab. He wore a suit, and though he seemed perfectly comfortable, he’d normally be in jeans. He’d be busy, but his phone wouldn’t be constantly ringing. He wouldn’t be meeting with university trustees, or advising the NBA, or conferring with the head of China’s center for disease control and prevention, or appearing on the Rachel Maddow Show. He’d be expecting his staff to have unpacked their moving boxes.

    But this isn’t a normal time for anyone, and especially not for a scientist such as Ho. He was among the first to champion a powerful combination of drugs to attack HIV and to push for them to be administered early instead of after a patient developed symptoms. It was an unconventional approach that became the standard of care and helps explain why HIV is a chronic disease but not necessarily a deadly one. It also explains why Ho was the first doctor to be named Time magazine’s Man of the Year, in 1996, and five years later was awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal. The plaque hangs on the wall behind his desk.

    Ho is 67 years old, measured and focused, and central to a network of former colleagues and students who’ve known that a moment like this was coming: a pandemic that could be the biggest viral threat to humanity since HIV emerged in the 1980s.


    Ho has developed an ambitious and expedited effort to come up with coronavirus drugs. The early stages of drug development typically take from five to 10 years, but he thinks it’s possible to have the most promising compounds ready for animal testing in only one. His hope is to create a single pill that could treat this coronavirus and the ones that will come after. “Surely there will be another one,” he says. “This is the third outbreak in two decades.” SARS started in China and eventually killed almost 800 people; Middle East respiratory syndrome emerged in 2012 and has killed more than 850 in sporadic outbreaks since then.

    “We’re reading strange literature about bat research,” Ho says. “Bats account for one-fifth of the mammals on this planet. That’s trivia we didn’t know. There are so many viruses that reside in bats—SARS and Ebola and perhaps this coronavirus.” Covid-19 isn’t the first, and it won’t be the last. Ho wants to prepare for the next one now.

    Hearing that was good enough for Jack Ma, the richest man in Asia. And it was sufficient for Zhi Hong, chief executive officer of Brii Biosciences, to also put in $2 million. Hong had been an infectious disease expert at GlaxoSmithKline Plc and has known Ho for years. “David has put together a quick but very reasonable program,” Hong says. If Ho’s lab comes up with a drug, a big pharmaceutical company would have to come in to test and produce it. There’s no formal agreement yet about how that would happen. There was no time for lawyers. “Right now we’re just investing in faith and trust in the relationship and David’s reputation,” Hong says. “We just said, ‘Take the money.’ ”

    The most straightforward of the lab’s projects aims to find an antibody to block the virus from entering cells, either to prevent infection or to treat it. The first step was getting hold of specific white blood cells, called memory B cells, from patients who have recovered from Covid-19. These cells, named because they can remember a virus for decades, contain markers on their surfaces that allow the body to rapidly generate many antibodies to that virus. These antibodies help protect against Covid-19 infection. In late January, Ho called on his connections in Hong Kong to take blood samples from two convalescent patients. His New York staff spent days getting permission from the governments and arranging the shipping. The cells were purified, placed in tiny vials, frozen in liquid nitrogen at –150C, and sent to Ho’s lab by a specialized courier service. They arrived intact in late February.


    As soon as they received the cells, Ho’s lab went to work sorting out the B cells, extracting RNA, making DNA for numerous anti-coronavirus antibodies, and expressing those antibodies on the surface of yeast cells. “Then we go fishing,” Ho says. “And we come with bait.” The bait is the spike proteins that protrude from the surface of the virus—or, in this instance, the lab-created pseudo virus. The tighter an antibody binds to the protein, the better. “We pull out many, compare activity, and select the best,” he says. “We could then change parts of the antibody to make it fit even tighter.”

    The chances that this research, or similar research elsewhere, will yield a treatment are relatively high. The strategy worked for Ebola. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., which developed a successful Ebola antibody treatment, is also working on a coronavirus antibody “cocktail” and says human trials could begin by early summer. But any such drug would have to be injected, which would likely require it to be refrigerated and administered by doctors—all of which would limit its use. It’s not the ideal. But it’s what might be good enough as a start.

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    A Ph.D. student in the lab at the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center at Columbia University, where David Ho and his colleagues have turned their attention to Covid-19.
    Photographer: Samantha Casolari for Bloomberg Businessweek
    Ho’s early HIV research focused on a crucial enzyme called protease, which acts as a kind of molecular scissors, cutting up viral proteins to help them replicate. One key set of drugs he tested on HIV patients in the 1990s were protease inhibitors: They interrupted that stage of the viral life cycle in an infected patient. He’s hoping to identify potential coronavirus protease inhibitors, which would act in much the same way. “Even if the protease is different, there are enough similarities to apply our knowledge and the chemistry,” he says.

    Alejandro Chavez, an assistant professor of pathology and biology at Columbia, is helping Ho in this part of the research. Traditional labs at pharmaceutical companies test potential drug compounds on one viral strain at a time. Chavez has devised a radically different screening system that allows him to simultaneously test compounds on dozens—and if successful, find the ones that will work not only on Covid-19 but on other coronaviruses as well.

    Chavez, 37, runs his own lab at Columbia, located across the street from Ho’s. He packs bundles of information into every sentence without pause. He’s animated and energized by the moment. His office is small, his desk crowded with papers and a huge jar of cheap candy. Perched on a ledge behind his desk is an award from his fellow residents at Massachusetts General Hospital: The “ ‘Yo dude I have this crazy idea let me explain it to you in one long stream-of-consciousness email’ award for exuberant scientific creativity.”

    In January, Chavez and Debbie Hong, one of the doctoral students working in his lab, were reading about the coronavirus like everyone else. When its genome was posted on a public-health website, they downloaded the sequence, found the protease gene, and paid a bioscience company about $80 to synthesize it.

    Soon after, they got a call from Ho. “Ho nucleated a team,” Chavez says. Nucleated? “Yeah, he nucleated a team.” He means one of Hong’s thesis advisers at Columbia, Stephen Goff, decided to combine his research efforts with Ho’s. Then, because he knew Ho was still looking for university scientists to join his effort, Goff told him, “There’s these crazy people—maybe we should bring them in.” That was Chavez, Hong, and a few others in the lab. Ho was impressed by how rapidly they could screen the molecules that might inhibit all kinds of coronavirus protease enzymes; his search could be accelerated beyond what he could do on his own. “He wants to push it forward at warp speed,” Chavez says.


    Chavez starts to explain his method. Then stops. Then starts. He’s applied for a patent and isn’t sure how much he wants to reveal. “I’ve never tried to explain this to a layperson and obfuscate at the same time,” he says. “I’ve only ever presented this once. I’ve been trying to stay stealth. OK, I’ll just disclose it.” One of the problems with screening drugs against more than one viral protease at a time is that it’s hard to tell which drugs are blocking which proteases. Chavez solved this problem by putting proteases from each virus into different cells, then creating what he calls nametags for each of the cells. He adds possible drug compounds to the cells and uses genome sequencing to read the tags, which allows him to see whether any of the viral proteases are blocked by each drug. “I look at how abundant each of the nametags are—‘How are you doing, Bob, John?’—and I see if the protease is on or off. If it’s off, then that compound inhibited it. If the protease is on, then that compound didn’t do anything.”

    Chavez is speaking hypothetically. He’s still working out the controls. “We’re not insane. We’re going to be very methodical,” he says. “So if I put in a compound that I know its activity, do I see that activity? Do I see that activity over four days? Does every single day give me the right answer? Does the answer ever change? Do I see things I know shouldn’t happen?”

    Chavez expects to begin testing the actual compounds in early April. In the meantime, “we’ve been busy collecting those compounds from chemical libraries,” Ho says. He was able to obtain a curated selection of potential protease-inhibiting molecules from a research company in Shanghai called WuXi AppTec Co. The founder is a friend of Ho’s who received his doctorate in chemistry from Columbia. It’s likely that if someone other than Ho had asked, the compounds, as crucial as they may turn out to be, would have remained in China.

    It might take three to six months for Chavez to detect a few lead compounds that efficiently block coronavirus proteases. If—when—he does, Ho will connect him to chemists who will, over a matter of a few more months, increase the potency of the compounds by 100%, maybe 1,000%. “We know that kind of gain is doable,” Ho says. It would be an important but still early step in creating a drug that would stop not only one viral protease but proteases from many coronaviruses. Because now we all know they’re out there
     
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  22. tifosi12

    tifosi12 Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Oct 3, 2002
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    @ the wheel
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    I believe you and I'm stunned. WTF happened to CH?
     
  23. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini F1 World Champ
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    Mar 2, 2005
    14,384
    Remember good old EASTERN Germany, the DDR?

    Marcel Massini
     
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  24. johnireland

    johnireland F1 Rookie
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    Mar 19, 2017
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    No, but compulsory national service that includes (since wars are not always available) very difficult and harsh military training (Rangers, Marines, Special Forces),
    followed by three years of work in everything from law enforcement, medicine, social services, education, wherever the nation needs your body. I think this should be required of every person on their 18th birthday, before they can begin college. No exemptions for anyone for any reason...no matter what the medical or mental condition there would be a place and a use for them. The would leave this service at the age of 21 with some real world experiences. As part of the compensation, the young person would be given three years free tuition to a trade school or state college. They'd have to pay for their own room and board and books, but the tuition would be paid.
     
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