Car restoration will be a thing of the past?!

We live in a world of technological advancements, and a world of crazy good marketing. Take Apple for instance, their iPhone upgrades are minimal, maybe a new hi resolution screen and that's pretty much it, but they market it so well, to the point where it get masses of people to act on impulse. Also people are making a lot more money compared to yesteryear. And some products that seem unobtainable to many are very obtainable to them. Maybe it's a catchy new up date electronic or a new model Ferrari.
My father is restoring a 72' Ford Bronco I enjoy helping on occasion, I love to see how parts work and how they are taken apart and put back together. Things were made very simple back then and I LOVE IT! People like my father are still around they are just doing it very differently due to the advancement in technology.

 

There's Photoshop or Painter and also ZBrush for digital sculpting, but I was just painting with oils and rather sculpt getting my fingers dirty. There will always be an old car to restore or crazy projects like turning an Italia into a hardcore old school ride.

 

Maybe that passion will be gone in 50 years, but by then, I image a world in which you'll be able to manufacture a 458 Scuderia on a garage sized multi-material 3D printer!

Okay, maybe that will take a bit longer than 50 years. lol

While I don't consider myself a great craftsman, I know how to fix cars, do body work and paint. I'll be retiring in 20 years, and like some of my older friends who own older cars, I'm sure I'll be out in the garage restoring my pride and joy until I can't do it anymore. There are also classic car clubs out there in which members get together once a month to help each others work on their cars. That is a great hobby.

Will parts be hard to find? Probably - but where there is money to be made, there will be those who will continue to make parts - and those who sell used parts from salvageable cars. And like Jay Leno does now, 3D printing is a real option, not just science fiction.

There are many 50+ year old cars that look like they were just driven off the factory floor and I'm sure there will be cars like that around in another 50 years. The big question in my mind is: Will there be any gas stations?

 

Francesco...

While the points you made about today's electronics driven car are valid, one key facotor that you failed to mention in favor of the restoration industry remaining viable is the free maket. If there is a market for classic cars of the future, z06 corvettes, Audi R8, GTR and the 458 to name a few, there will be people who will meet that market need and demand by supplying the parts and services to keep them running.

Technology runs on a deflationary model, you either get more for the same price, or last years tech for a lower price. Todays electronic parts that cost a fortune to replace now may only cost pennies in the future. Plus you will have several generations of people who are adapt at writing code for things like ECUs all looking for creative ways to make a living working on cars. It's important to remember too that we are so early in the digital age that we are keeping very little of the technology that gets outdated as we race to the next cool innovation. This may change as the market develops to keep some of these soon to be older classics on the road.

As far as the skill set needed to do the restorations, leather work, body work, assembly, etc, again, as long as there is a market for those services, people will apply their passion and skills to meeting that need and the industry will survive.

One last point is that people will pay for what they are emotionally attached to and for each generation there is a set of cars that they identify with. The ten year olds of today with posters of the 458 on their walls right now are going to be looking for one in 30 years because they love them now.

As long as the passion for cars is handed down from one generation to another, the next generation will be looking for the cars they dreamed about as kids and teenagers when they get old enough to afford them. If they have the funds to pay, the market will provide.

 

The current teenages don't want to drive though: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15847682

Pete

 

I don't see the electronics as the biggest problem. There's always the possibility to hook up an aftermarket ECU to let the engine run. It won't run like the original one, but it will run. The problem on the engine side is IMHO more the complex actuators, like Diesel injection systems. They're very complex to manufacture and it only makes sense on a large scale. If no parts are available anymore and no factory makes them anymore, you're done. You can't reproduce them in a small shop.

Second, the bigger problem: The body. Today's steels and alloys are very sophisticated and it's often not possible anymore to weld them by hand. This will become a lot worse when future CF bodied cars hit the mass market.

 

I think cars will always be restored and that the talent to do it will be around. I do agree that a lot of guys who know how to do the job are older guys. The Hispanics will take this over too.

 

As long as people have an emotional attachment to their cars or things for that matter.. there will be restoration. Older guys will be doing it because they have the time to do it. I know that I learned how to hammer out metal and use filler and what not because I like to repair my things myself. I'm certain there are other people out there like me. I like to think that I'm "restoring" my 360 after buying it needing some work. It's ALOT easier to restore than my 79 928 on the sheer basis that bolts and parts aren't frozen together by corrosion as they are in the 928!

Every generation is similar at that age. This one is at an age where in the 20's they want to have fun, live in a small apartment, play on the computer, go to good bars, clubs etc. The difference between this generation and prior generations in their 20's is (in general): mommy and daddy have excessively coddled them and they are coming of age in very severe recession. Both of these things keep people from spreading their wings. A car outside of major cities is needed for any freedom. Once they start having kids, and jobs open up.. things will change. The burbs offer a place to grow a family cheaper and more comfortably than a city apartment. Priorities and needs are proportional to the phase of life a person is in.

 

I think cars like the 430/458 et all won't be restored simply because there are so many of them, or will be, and it won't make any economic sense to restore one, when you can always find a pristine one somewhere.

The last cars I can see being restored will be the last of the manuals. F430, 360s, with a special highly sought after market for the 550, 355 and challenge Stradale (last of the true manuals, little electronic interruption and classic shape of the 550; the shape and transformation between classic cars and mondern cars with the 355 and the last of the 5 valve engine, and one of the most hardcore Ferraris since year 0 for the CS, perhaps the perfect balance between modern electronica and driving experience).

 

I can tell you as an owner of a 246 Dino gt in the eighties, very few thought it had any appreciation value. Look at them today. I think 308's and Boxers have potential. But who can really tell. We may be looking at the golden age of sports cars.

But the cost of restoration is rising rapidly as the older cars reveal years of neglect and abuse. Most cars just aren't worth restoring. This to be is the real long term proplem, along with possible governmental restrictions on classic cars on future roads. Pollution and safety standards might limit their usage on the roads. If that's the case, it's going to be tougher to justify the costs.

 

I think resoration of the very high end cars will continue and make economic sense. If there is money they(the craftsmen) will appear. Lower end cars are restored for the fun value. Do it yourselfers,many very good,will continue. I restored 2 cars completely,the last a Maserati Mexico. learned a lot,lost money on both.

 

It's an emotional connection. My 928 isn't worth restoring from a financial standpoint ($2000 car or so?).

But I just can't get my self to sell her or let her go.. ! And I would love one day to COMPLETELY restore her from the chassis up. I'd love to knwo what it woul dhave felt like to drive her off the dealer lot! (Emotion.)

 

As things become more global you might find restoration will take place in areas where the craft has been passed down and people still work with their hands. Apparently now for Porsche's in Europe, restoration work is done in places like the Czech Republic(?) where labor rates are lower and quality is good.

On newer F's the electronics will be a problem when you can't get them anymore. Either someone else will offer a replacement part or the cars will sit non running and people won't want them.

To put this fear into perspective, I'm sure in say the '70's the thought was that there just wouldn't be fuel available in future and that there would be alternative powered vehicles. Look at where we are on that today?

Lastly the trend has been going away from the overly restored cars that look better than they ever did. People are fascinated with patina and being able to look at a car that tells the story of years of use. Who knows where things will be in 20 years but a car that runs and is unrestored might be the thing? Finding a mechanic to work on them is another problem.

 

I love cars that have patina. Over restored cars such as in the Ralph Loren collection just dont do it. I was driving in the south of Morocco several years ago,was passed by a type35 Bugatti, worn leather, Blue paint faded down to bare metal in places, driving fast,-best car I ever say

 

In the early 90's I worked for a company that Fab'd ASIC devices for a very large automotive electronics supplier. These devices were used in ECUs. We completed the lifecycle of product; EOL’d them and went on our way. A dozen years later this company contacted us concerning these devices. Their inventory of ECUs were depleted and some of these cars were on the verge of becoming lawn planters. If the technology used to fab these devices still existed there is little chance anyone could cost effectively spin a mask set, fab new silicon, qualify the silicon to automotive standards, create and sell new ASICs for this application. Luckily In this instance we still had several thousand devices of old stock that had missed the scrap bin. Needless to say the customer bought these without question of date code or aging.

Now I am seeing the beginnings of a the same scenario for at least one modern high end American sports car that is currently being resurrected as well as a high-end diesel pickup engine.

I would expect that same with all electronics in a car. Under normal circumstances chips have a finite life, and as we all know, throw in a jump, short or other spike and this life is shortened, sometimes significantly

Now, that isn’t to say that in the future there may be alternate solutions or that someone or group with exceptionally deep pockets could create an alternative solution but I see this out of reach of most hobbyists or enthusiasts or small manufactuing concerns.

 

People have said this for years, most notably on the C4 Corvette -- critics said that despite the great (for the time) performance, nobody would have them in 30 years due to the electronics.

The "complex" digital dashboard can be ordered via many parts supplier. The '85's "complex" new TPI injection components are also available everywhere. What is complex and expensive to reproduce now is child's play in 30 years. In actuality, the cost of reproducing parts continues to go down with time and advancements.

And just like in the 1950s, where the cost of re-chroming and rebuilding a nailhead makes restoring a '56 Buick Special sedan impractical, there will be plenty of cars (like a BMW 750Li) which due to multiple expensive low-production electronic motors, electronics and other tech-gizmos, will also be passed-over for restoration of more desirable and ultimately valuable vehicles...in BMW's case M3s and in Buick's case the '53 Skylark or '54-'55 Century convertibles.

 

I do agree most new cars are disposable and if they are not the issue w modern supercars is that manufacturing replacement parts is extremely expensive

Restoring a 50s Ferrari requires shaping an aluminum body, leather interior and maybe using a forge to create some new parts

Rebuilding say a 458 requires lots of carbin fiber, exotic materials and the computers could be the most complicated bcus modern cars are quickly turning into near robots.

I think I'll be keeping all my old cars

 

In 20 (or even 40) years, the restoration guys will still be restoring 64.5 Mustangs, SuperBirds, 442s, original 911s, etc.

 

But your point was that the business was going away. No, it is not going away, and will continue to restore the same kinds of cars it is currently restoring. Heck, Jay Leno is restoring 1910-stuff, right down to taking 3D images and remolding metal parts.

Your rant is that the modern cars won't get restored. Some will, most will not; when it comes down to craftsman ingenuity; and the current wave of geeks gets into the rstoratio business, they will figure out how to re-ECU engine controllers, transmission controllers,... after that, its simply mechanices and electrics. Hard, sure; that is why there are 600,000 quality car repair places and only 600 quality restoration places.