Bull or Bear on Ferrari Vintage market?

Too subtle for my old eyes....

 

Soon the late 1980s will return with a bang. . .

 

God I hope not... "Black Monday", Lockerbie, the Exxon Valdez, Tiananmen Square. Not much to like about the late 1980s. The only thing I liked about the late 80s was my age!

T308

 

To those who have watched in recent years the recent fast run has the feeling "that it can't go any higher"
while those who have seen the cyclical runs of the 80's and 90's saying "oh yeah, it has just started the run"

 

I think the upper end (Daytonas, Lussos, etc.) will continue on up. These cars have no real competition for the washed few. The unwashed masses will watch their 308 type cars slowly creep up but I doubt even a perfect 328 ever get to 6 figures.

355's, 360's, 550's etc. will fall and never get back to the MSRP. They are too computerized for most DIYers and there will be a huge population of very neglected cars that won't pay to be fixed. We've seen that to a lesser extent on the older 8 cylinder models but they have finally bottomed.

The Boxer, 512TR, Testarossas are the tough one. Everyone says the Boxers are the next great investment and may well be, but I wouldn't buy one expecting to make money. I think Testarossas and 512TR's will bottom at about where they are now, but not go up for the same reason as above: too expensive in general to maintain for the type of people who would buy them. So there will always be enough beater Testarossas around to depress the market.

Just my opinions...

Ken

 

I agree completely - the difference being that every cycle, there will be fewer GTEs and PF coupes . . .

 

The inference being that this market is being driven by actual consumers not speculators

 

Right now there is a surplus of cash and people are not heading for the stock market, rather puuting their money into tangibles such as their homes. Look at home sales as well sales at such stores as Home Depot and Lowes for proof that this is happening. Should stocks suddenly attract the masses, watch most of this money move out of these tangibles.

 

This is right on the money!

I would also add that for the next 5 years or so, we will see a window where the high-income boomers will be particularly flush. They're making more money than ever. The kids are out of college. Their retirement is funded (or so they think). Home is paid for.

AND

If they are ever going to buy that 60's Ferrari that they lusted for back in 3rd period algebra, the clock is ticking.

I find it humorous that many of the naysayers here are Gen Xers. Perhaps they are engaging in wishful thinking? You guys can't even afford to buy these cars at yesterday's prices. My advice to you is to wait for the estate sales.

Dale

 

I am just stuck between the baby boomers and gen X-ers
I bought real estate in California in 96 and 2000, and my vintage Ferrari in 2001. Something good came out of my generational identity crisis...

 

I still think that there is a yearly seasonal cycle to pricing

 

Ohhhhh it is going to be a rude awakening, isnt it? But, after all, the boomers will be getting what they deserve with the cards come down.

Gen X RULES! Or least we will one day.... and then you boomers are really in for it!

Wishful thinking? Probably. Then again, either way I win. If prices go up then my Daytona is worth more. If prices come down, I an afford another vintage Ferrari. I prefer the latter scenario, but wont shed tears over the former.

Estate sales? We wont have to wait that long. Boomers flush with cash will be dumping cars when the value of that cash has inflated to nothing....

Then again, perhaps in such a situation people will look to buy collector quality cars to get OUT of cash? Hmmmmmm a good hedge against inflation?

DANG! I would be screwed again!

Galts Gulch...... here I come!




Terry

 

I hope Boxers are next, but I doubt it because they made way too many of them...387 365s, 929 BBs and 1007 BBis...which for Chevy is not many, but for Ferrari is a lot!

 

Gen X RULES! Or least we will one day.... and then you boomers are really in for it!

Yikes Terry!

 

ok, so due to my age i have very little experience, but i'm going out on a limb here...


i predict prices to fall slightly for the real vintage cars. especially pre-65 cars.
i always feel like the people who have the 'big money' these days are the people who dreamed about these cars in their youth. and these people are bound to be replaced by a new generation one day

big prices will probably go along with the cars that i link to the upcoming generation.

so i expect price increases for the daytonas and dinos, but slight decrease for cars like 166 and 212.

biggest price increases however will be for the cars with history, with an interesting story attached and a unique personality. i believe that is becoming ever more important.
cars like the breadvan or 400i GTO, special cars that were created for special people

 

i have a simple rule about clssic cars (ferrari's included), people will buy whta they wanted when they were in high school.

although the market is everchanging, people still wnat vintage ferrari's. according to my "rule", i wouldn'tbe buying a ferrari until iwas buying a 328/348/tr. i am the odd duck. prices will rise based on the scope of the "when i was in high school" market.

you could not replace a dino/daytona/bb/ early 308/ anything earlier for the cost of insurance, these cars are about to go up. muscle cars have already done so. do you think a dino/daytona is worth the same price as a similar year mustnag/camaro? i don't!!!!! the pony car market has shot up and they are much more common. once people my age (i'm 31) realise the value, prices will correct - down for the pony cars and up for the rare cars. trust me, ther are very few cars made between 75 and 85 worth owning. this generation will fall back on the older cars versus reaching towards the newer cars. all tr owners, hold on for the ride if you can make it 5+ years, prices will come back. the reason i am certain of this is all of the friends/coworkers that are my age. they have a greater interest in the cars that appealed to them for so long, and those aren't the newest cars. i am happy i already went through that stage. i consider my tr to be a beast to drive, but i could trade just about anything to let my peers/friends have it for the weekend. there is a huge wave about to hit. give the early 70's car 6 months, give the mid 80 cars about five years.......

 

The car and the gurl !

LOL





I want a Daytona Coupe !! Someday.

 

Did someone say "wave"????

Where's my surf wax????? LOL!

I sure hope so, I need to justify a lil' maintenance here, and some fitted luggage! I need some respect!!!

My note runs thru 2008, so I'll hold on at LEAST that long.....

 

This is my first and last Ferrari, not planning on selling it, not worried. I voted "flat".