Bubble value cars?

I tend to agree with your assessment, while I am a car lover prices are getting ridiculous. I would add the 246 Dino and the 993 Turbo are silly expensive at this point. I guess it's supply and demand but I do think prices will have to come down at some point.

 

Most of these cars will correct of course.
True limited production cars, Blue Chips, will stabilize or continue appreciation although slower then today, they became part of the "art market" and are bought to admire and as investment like paintings,sculptures,etc.
IMO..."

 

Its two markets. Everyone wants to get their car into the art market category, for those cars there is no price, just price hireachy. There are probably still a few ferraris to enter thta equation. Possibly the ghibli, well most def the ghibli question is when. Lambo 350 Gt, miura and most Ct already there, not to mention giula spiders at 100k. These cars may all drop here and there witht he tides of the art market, but they are no longer overinflated bubbles and operate in thier own rarified art air.

This is very different to the muscle boom which with very rare exceptions was a bubble.

 

a new turbo S costs close to $200k... a z28.. $75k......

new cars are disposable appliances, imho. new car prices pulling old ?

 

This is a subject I think about daily because a lot of cars that I want to own in the future are getting ridiculously expensive (E28 M5, 964 Turbo 3.6 etc.) and it irritates me. There seems to be a lot of speculators in the market (don't know how it actually is...) and I don't like it.

The NSX depreciated all the way down to 15-20k $ and careless teens started buying them and modding them. This caused the mint examples to skyrocket in price. In these digital times it seems like that car is even more respected because of its mechanical feel and relative simplicity (and still a headache-free ownership experience). Add the fact that there are millions of Japanese car fans out there who hold the NSX high then I do get why they have held their prices so well. In Japan the Type R versions are on par with 430 Scuderia's and I can see why that's absurd, but at the same time I can also see why it's very collectible (very little supply then compared to market demand now).

Personally I don't understand the M3 E30 pricing. They made thousands of them yet they still demand what is to me a ludicrous price. The Sport Evo II editions with fancy alecantra steering wheel and a few more hp are going for close to 100.000 Euro's.
Even the really cheap Alfa's of the 60s are rapidly gaining value, no idea why.

 

Land Rover Defenders prices are insane.

 

At the risk of being tarred and feathered, this "cars are investments" attitude is what worries me about Jim G's upcoming show. Looking at the cars they mention in the blurb - XK120, 356, and MB 190 - I can't help but think that this show will only add "frothiness" to the bubble.

 

Look at all the new cars coming out that are no longer "analog/driver's cars." You have no choice but to go with older models. Also every year that goes by, finding a lower mileage clean example of any of the above gets more difficult.

 

I'm out of the loop, what show? Something on TV or online?

 

I think this is playing a larger part than people think. Speculators/investors are one thing, but the new car prices are dragging them up, too. Heck, the new GTR is keeping the prices of the first 2007+ GTRs high, too. It debuted at $69,850 MSRP in late 2007. Now the 2014 MSRP is $101,770. They're not that much different so the 2007 built date cars aren't much lower than their original MSRP as the alternative to buy new is still $30k+ different. The Turbo S example you give is similar.

 

Air cooled porsches, no. G class and 928 manuals, no. Z8, heck no. Have to disagree there. They didn't make that many to begin with and they are starting to go awaay. Now Ferrari DINO=BUBBLE. Bubble, bubble, bubble. Did I mention bubble? Because that car is going to blow any second LOL. We are in a hard asset bubble right now, no doubt about it. but supply is supply, and almost everything you've mentioned is in extremely low supply, which is why the price is where it is.

 

Also the air cooled porsches have done nothing but appreciate in the past decade, especially 993s (which were only made for 3 years BTW). Maintenance has NOTHING to do with the value. This is the biggest myth about collector cars. Toys are toys. if you have a clean 993 coupe manual, turbo or not. That baby will never drop, sorry that's what it is. The 993 is THE 911. Period the end. Always has been, always will be. And while I agree with you that the Z8 is cool but not that cool, that thing is RARE, and will always be up there in value.

 

i like air cooled 911s. old school and no PDK. they have spiked.. maybe they pull in...the trend is still up for special cars. what do i know ? i own a 94 speedster. 1/400 usa.

z8's are low production. 3.0CS and what else in the bmw space to collect ?

didn't know used G wagons prices were rising.

 

Neither did I, G wagons can still be had in the 20s for high mileage examples. They never drop below 20 and never will. Hand made car, Rare bird.

 

All true, especialy as good oines are hard to find.

Lets also not forget that these older cars have had adecade or more to be reflected on, and many were at very low prioces once. What it takes to be collector as opposed to a buyer/hoarder is taste in what is good.

A 993 turbo is good, its the last, it looks great and performs the best, a 930 is classic. Everyone already knows about a GT3RS 4.0, but you can buy a reasonable 997.1 Gt3, which aguably looks better and is more streetable, somethign to bear in mind as classic cars when they stop being dispoasable are not generaly used for the track.


There are also still new analog cars to buy. The z28 is going to be a classic, its just so raw and unrefined, that you know relatively few will eb built, and whatever follows will be "better" ie more refined. So its the last of the current musclecar breed, the hemi cuda L88 vette of the 2k.

The new Viper, when will we see its likes again? Ther z06 vette is sure to be a great analog techno fusion. If you thinka bout tit, the z28 is around for a short while and has a very special mtoor,a nd the new viper is going by defintion to be very limited production.

Over at ferrari the 16M and 550 barachetta are valued low for what they are. The rest its true are hype cars or marketing specials.

Over at porche, well there is nothing new to really buy if you want a keeper to become a classic. But rumors of a cayman GT4 may change that.

Mclaren is sure to become a household supercar name. The MP12 was not a huge sucess but the 650s is selling great. The MP12 is actualy a classy design, like the origional NSX and in time will be revered as the first of the new Mclarens and a classic shape, they should soon be under 100k.

A lotus eilse is probably THE futire classic.

So there is a list of newer cars to buy, under 100k, keep em 20 years and be regarded as a true collector. You just dont have to pay crazy dollars for instant collectables that are rising. My list are all great drivign cars you can get new or used nad will gibe a lifetimne of enjoiyment driving and sell for more than you put in if you keep long enough.

 

Someone mentioned the muscle car bubble. I don't follow that market at all. What have those prices done over the last few years?

 

^^^^THIS^^^^

 

It is very unlikely that there will ever be another air/oil cooled car made. That being the case, air/oil cooled Porsche will continue to appreciate.

 

Pagoda roof MB's values have been climbing also. I hope it's a bubble as no matter how much $$ I have I will only spend so much of it for a car.

 

I love the 993 Porsche! These cars are modern day classics and truly the last of the 911- end of an era. In addition, the 356 market is taking off as well. A good driving 54-59 speedster will set you back a min of about $250k. This is relatively a bargain compared to the 300sl or 507 BMW ($2 mill range). At any rate, these cars are fine art and they sure as hell aren't making any more. Even some of the Japanese cars have taken off- especially the. Toyota 2000 gt (north of $1 mill). Either way, these cars are better than money in the bank and a lot more fun


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

The Ford GT, arguably the only modern American supercar, is certainly not a bubble. I think it was only at or under MSRP for a little while. Unlike Ferrari, Porsche, etc., the GT appeals to just about every American sportscar enthusiast from guys with Mustangs and Corvettes to guys with serious exotics. They made a lot of them so the prices will not quickly rise but almost all of them have been garage kept and babied from day 1, meaning that most examples are prime examples.

The Z8 is cool car with limited production and distinct, unique design that will not likely be re-created. Prices have remained steady from release. I can't see how these will lose value.

A "bubble" is usually something that's undergone a rapid inflation, not really the case for the GT or the Z8.

Possible "bubbles" could include the NSX, 911, and as someone else mentioned, the E30 M3. There are a ton of 911s out there, and M3 production wasn't exactly limited. The NSX had low production (due to low sales) and a unique and distinct design, but prices tumbled from MSRP and only recently rebounded. M3 and 911s also bottomed out very low, but then have recently spiked.

The NSX, M3 and air cooled 911s are certainly interesting cars but I don't think the value is really there commensurate with the driving experience. Out of the lot, the only one I would consider buying with my own money is a 993 Turbo (which as some mentioned is only marginally more expensive than a base 993). Again I like all of them but I think they are definitely overpriced.

 

I think a lot of it comes down to the analog/drivers car explanation said earlier. Even the Defender 90's and 110's are simple, basic cars with no amenities. The earlier G-wagons were closer to this as the newer ones are electronics-overloaded tarted up mall-crawlers. The Jeep wrangler is the only modern alternative to the D90/110 and even those are going the way of electronic gizmos, gps navigation, climate control, computer controlled everything, etc.. As hybrid technology takes over in the super car world I could see the last of the traditional generation holding value very well. We're already seeing a line drawn where 6 speed manuals are no longer available and I believe the most modern cars up to that line will be considered special. Let's face it, you'll probably never be able to buy a modern aventador or huracan in a 6 speed configuration, so the LP-670 with a manual will be a solid investment and a symbol of the last of a generation of vehicles.

Even though the production numbers are relatively high it wouldn't surprise me if many years down the road the F430, Murcielago, 997 911 GT3, etc start to hold value in 6 speed configuration as the last of a dying breed. Hybrid integration will only further entrench cars like this as the last of those with pure engines. We're basically seeing the same sort of trend but with electronic gadgets and control being the "new evil". Truly analog, and the latest of the analog cars are becoming more desirable for long term ownership.

It also helps if the vehicle is a discontinued model. BMW doesn't make new Z8's every year. It's gone and will probably never have an equal. D90's/110's can't be imported. Lotus Elise/Exige will never have a likely equal in performance, driving feel, and weight with modern safety standards. Same with the Carrera GT and countless others. No BMW will ever feel like an E30 M3 again.

 

Frankly, I love guys like you. About 10 years ago, I had an opportunity to buy a 64 SC, but when I drove it, it felt like those mutherchucking VWs that I drove back in the day. Driving through hilly country was a challenge. You had to book it downhill just to make it to the top of the next hill.

As for the 993, there's a reason why God made water-cooled engines, and it is called Texas in the summertime. So go ahead and spend all the money and more for a plain jane 993. Me? I'll pick up a 996 turbo with less than 50k miles for $40k and run circles around you, with the A/C freezing my nuts off.

Dale

 

First gen M3's have gone ballistic over the last year. Hopefully the MB 190 2.3 16V (the M3 protagonist) will rise at the same level. Clean, non abused examples are rare. Ive been watching the aircooled 911 do the same thing but it started earlier. I would love a 964 manual trans coupe but nothing has been offered that peaks my interest. I think they are the hold out 911 now IE time to buy. Clean 8 series BMW's are starting to go up.

I have soft spot for the Merkur XR4TI in Mono white.

I totally agree with the previously mentioned thoughts regarding digital cars. Who the hell has all the computer tools to fix bugs? Nothing beats a six pack, multi meter and some wrenches.