Bonhams at Goodwood,Sat 12th Sept.

Really?

So people who wanted F40s now have them and that's what causes weaker results?

Let me put it this way, if it is because people who want those cars already have them or had many chances, then we are in massive, massive trouble.

However, that clearly isn't the case and many people still want these cars.

Some more reasonable but perhaps overly negative pessimistic reasons: Russian billionaires not quite as rich (put mildly... in fact, many are losing their shirts). Chinese multi millionaires and big company owners, now fearful of paper vs. actual liquid wealth. US venture capitalists with $$$ sunk into companies that are on paper "worth" billions but likely not worth even millions...

The real issue is that the prices are flattening. Speculators are no longer going to anticipate the next auction provides an opportunity to flip at an even higher price. Carrying cost is still incredibly low thanks to rock bottom interest rates, but now there is more risk.

Takes more than a couple data points but I've seen more rumblings elsewhere.

But the reasoning that people have the cars or had the opportunity to buy these cars earlier this year is frightening.

 

Unless you are the type of person who accepts that these cars back then never had the level of refinement and precision that cars have nowadays. Only if you accept this can you accept these kinds of "imperfections" I guess. Sure it may not please the guy with the clipboard judging your car if that is your aim(and to be honest if you restore the cars for the purpose of these judging events then you will of course need to play by their rules-regardless whether you accept them or not) but if it is about trying to "restore" to car more or less back to the spirit of what it was in the time then yes you can accept this...
I also don't agree that the problem was necessarily through lack of skill or care. Car manufacturing has moved on in leaps and bounds and technology and materials has spoilt us into taking for granted perfectly straight gaps and lines...these things simply did not exist to the level we have now, even 25-30 years ago little lone 50 years ago...

But that's another debate for another time I guess and there is no point in opening this can of worms.....

 

I would accept that and I think many people wouldn't disagree either. I think it is quite normal in any market. The big debate has always been whether cars would tank and lose 40-50% . I still believe this just won't happen, although it may be possible that some of big recent increases in relatively high volume, and more modern metal may undergo a bigger correction than rarer lower volume cars which should be much more resilient to any price corrections.... But as I've said before we'll see.......

 

Perhaps the buyer of a true preservation class car really wants a car as it truly left the factory, "imperfections" and all?

Perhaps the buyer of a restored car truly wants a polished piece of jewelry, e.g., Ralph Lauren?

 

No one spends this kind of money to restore a car today with lousy gaps and panel fit. No one.

 

Regardless of what you think, there is indeed a divide in perceptions as to how cars should be restored. And many of us simply do not like the "over-restored look"... and that therefore is not No one as you suggest...

 

Yes - but maybe those dealers are going to battle to reach these asking prices now - especially when the buyers start realizing that they can potentially get cars at auction at a much cheaper price ( once theses reserve prices start to soften ). This is again why I am glad I am not a high-end dealer when the market turns. Apologies to Paul Baber, who's sales room I could drool over all year .....

 

"The big debate has always been whether cars would tank and lose 40-50% . I still believe this just won't happen" <<< I think the unless there is a major financial crisis there will likely be no spectacular bubble bursting for the high end. Instead we may end up in a prolonged period of stagnation where nominal prices don't decline dramatically but their real value is eroded by inflation (and owners have contend with storage, maintenance and insurance expenses). We may just have another one (or two) lost decade(s). The net result might be the same but the timing very different...

 

History says otherwise. Slim chance of simple stagnation

 

Pretty soon, based on some comments, we should be able to buy a GTO. May be the 2 of us should team up together...

 

Wow you always have so much "inside" information. You know billionaires who are not as rich and you know VC firms that have over inflated assets on their books that are worth 100 times less than the books they cooked? What are you a wana-be annalist? Or are you on Wall Street daily to see it?

 

Yes, good idea but I want no red one! And you and I both are no navigators so our friendship will vanish fast. And always the discussion your place or mine. I think we should get two!

Some of the comments are most likely from 15 year old schoolboys with the FT of their dad....

Ciao
Oscar

 

High bid of no sales
275 GTB/6C - £ 2250000
Daytona Spider - £ 2000000
Dino 246 GT - £ 225000
1988 Testarossa - £ 68000

What was the high bid for the F40?

 

Evans paid £2,277,000 when he brought the Daytona Spyder last year at Silverstone Auctions Salon Prive sale, so no surprise £2m was not nearly enough here (assuming it was a genuine bid).

 

Please re-read my post and try again.

Oil prices tanked. That means russian oil money has gone down, dramatically.

Chinese stock market tanked. That means owners of those companies have lost billions.

VC is being criticized by none other than Mark Cuban. Is Mark Cuban a "wana-be annalist"?

Not sure which of my comments didn't just re-iterate some very obvious facts to anyone with enough intelligence to assemble their own thoughts.

So far, the collector car market has been losing steam and is starting to peak / decline. I've been more "correct" about the issues than those who seem to think all is well and things will keep going up.

Give it another 12 months and then see where prices sit at that point.

The immaturity of some people is astounding. Can't debate with logic, throw insults or attempt to undermine someone. Good grief.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/27/the-russian-billionaires-hit-hard-by-oil-plunge.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/liyanchen/2015/07/08/chinas-richest-billionaires-lost-195-billion-in-one-month-amid-stock-market-rout/

http://blogmaverick.com/2015/03/04/why-this-tech-bubble-is-worse-than-the-tech-bubble-of-2000/

 

How is what's happening with the Russian billionaires relevant to what's being discussed here? The article you site has a few billionaires out of the more than 1200 world's billionaires loosing 30-40% of their net worth. I really think these bad boys will be just fine with the few nickels they have left.
The fluctuation in billionaire's wealth is a constant thing and plays no role here. Are the world's billionaires effecting the classic car market? The only correlation cheap oil and classic cars have is the fact that the gas we utilize for our cars costs less.

So Mr. Cuban analyzed the world's many VC's books and spat out an answer and therefore that also comes into play here? Not!

You're always rehashing the same old news and are bearish on every thing. So that's what I am calling out. Any good news out there or it is all bad?

How does this latest news effect the classic car market: Car sales push US retail figures up - BBC News

Probably it doesn't. This is my immature take on it.

 

I realize you are likely only kidding on wanting my take on anything at all, but how about this.

New car sales / general US economy overall / employment etc is actually all quite healthy and strong. The US is somewhat alone in having good economic news. That is the problem.

The good news for car investors is that the U.S. isn't on the verge of any real financial meltdown, though perhaps things feel a bit rosier than they should.

Also, I was very much an optimist in 2009. The market gets it wrong in the extremes. If collectible cars drop in value 30-40%, they will recoup that over time (likely through another bubble). People who can and do just buy and hold these cars will fare just fine.

To get into the nitty gritty of a couple things. Car sales in the U.S. are slightly overstated because lending practices have move towards being a bit more lax in that market than I think most would be comfortable with. Remember that actual wage growth has been pretty lousy for the past couple decades here. So lots of buying is through financing deals / leases which allow people to get into cars they wouldn't otherwise afford.

The positive offset is that the U.S. real estate market is mostly rational (with some bubble pockets) unlike the nation-wide bubble that happened a few years ago. Cars aren't nearly as big a personal asset as houses, so less worrisome for that market to be a bit iffy.

As for my billionaires comments? Well, they aren't overly relevant on the whole, but they are relevant at the margin. As prices push higher, you need there to be willing billionaire buyers (at the very high end of the market). As for some losing a quarter to about half their wealth? Those are likely the ones we can all ignore because half of a $10bn fortune is still a lot of moola. More problematic are the ones who were worth $1bn thanks to having $8bn in assets and $7bn in debt... there are many billionaires out there like that, most typically in real estate and also in natural resources (where there is huge up front investment made, usually based on "forecasted" or implied future prices... what the wall street folk are assuming will happen down the line). Problem is that their net worth can and does get wiped out.

On the VC side, I've known several people in the last dot com bust that went from paper net worth in the hundreds of millions, to net worth of <$5mm. They owned fancy cars and then poof, they had to sell them and sell their homes. Over extended.

That's it. It is simple. I actually am not too pessimistic and for those in the market with ample cash liquidity, why would they even care? They can hold the cars through any downturn and shouldn't give a rat's behind about value. There are many in this as an investment game at present, however, and they may get burned bad.

Personally, while I have these views, most of my personal net worth is tied up in real estate that I can't transact and I'm much better off if everything goes perfectly.

If I were someone following my comments and held an opposing view I would thank me for at least arguing the opposite case and being a bit vocal about it. At the very worst it causes someone to think carefully about their own views. I would point out there are many many comments throughout this site about prices going up / grabbing things before they get too expensive / how good a listed price is etc. To me the most dangerous trait of humans is group think and a mob mentality. I keep my posts limited to threads specifically market related (auctions, value, market).

 

Does anybody know the high bid for the F40?

 

Definitely yes...

 

These high bids mean nothing as legally the auctioneer can flatter the car by bouncing bids up to its reserve......

 

People want to buy race cars,,but race cars have often a tough life. Reading in details the catalogue, you would have noticed that 2 of the Scarabs were assembled from spare parts...and as interesting the Porsche history might be, the car has been substantially modified during its racing life. People are looking in details to the history as they know cars will be more difficult to sell with such baggage .
If you look in detail at the Danish sale of Bonhams you will see several cars rebodied, or with chassis found in Russia but no confirmation that the recreated body was the one originally on the car.
Incidentally the Pebble Beach winner was bodied or re bodied, not sure, several years after the chassis was manufactured. Ditto for runner up, where chassis, engine and second body were separated for decades..and class winner of Touring class was a race car rebodied afterwards. Not necessarily bad and certainly genuine, but as prices go up, market becomes more and more selective . A rebodied Ferrari with a white book, while all genuine, may not be as attractive as a car with its original body.
As one well known dealer racer told me once, if you have to explain the history, you have a problem,,,
Regarding the Aston Ulster, it has been for sale for at least a year, unless the owner was reselling it after a very short time, and as such with this limited racing history and less attractive body style, I would call it well sold!

 

And that is why I always enjoy reading your posts. Very accurate in all regards. The best is the best and priced accordingly, the rest just isn't selling or selling at a major discount. Agree the Porsche is simply to specialised, how many races are there for late 1970s Group 6 Turbo's (that will probably get beaten by a modified 935 anyway) ? The Aston was not nearly as sexy as the one Bonhams sold earlier in the year and the Scarab had a multi page write up about how original it was before telling us it was made relatively recently....... Will be interesting to see what Bonhams brings to their end of year Bond Street sale which in 2013 & 2014 has had some stellar cars and then only 4 months away is Scottsdale followed by Retromobile. If we are seeing any new trends it will become clear then. I believe it is simply the market discounting anything less than perfect but time will tell.

 

The Best cars command all the money, and always will, what I find astonishing is the negative spin on these sites, its almost as if people are desperate for cars to become cheaper because they have been priced out of the market in cars that they used to trade in.. People should just take board the whole dynamic of cars has drastically changed, the amount of time I hear people say.. look at the late eighties. That was three decades ago.. next they will be spouting about the great depression..If you want a certain car buy it, in 10 years it will make no difference what price you have paid, it will be a lot more..
If you are disappointed that the market has got away form you, thats life and maybe you should start looking at the lower models to console yourselves..
With the new breed of Ferraris now starting around 300k GBP do people really think they are going to by first grade classic's around that number again... If you do then that is why you missed the move in the first place.. These guys never buy because they always want it cheaper...

 

One perhaps for the statisticians here (Timmmmmmy?) to work out, but I've been wondering how many classic cars are now selling on average for more than they cost new once inflation is taken into account?

For Ferraris I would guess Daytonas and older plus the specials 288GTO F40 etc are selling for above what they cost new (inflation adjusted) but Boxers. 308, Testarossas etc are still a lot less. The 500 mile 328 that broke records at RM only matched what its modern equivalent the 488 sells for new in the UK.

 

Currently these models are probably selling for about what they were selling at the time-inflation adjusted, although maybe the Boxer is selling for maybe 1.5-2x it original price(inflation and other factors adjusted)

With the 328 however its very likely he probably lost. new 328's at the time in 1989 were selling for about 90-100k(even at the dealers). So you can see how the guy would have lost...