Ad's from 30 years ago... | FerrariChat

Ad's from 30 years ago...

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by MikeRSR, Jul 16, 2014.

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  1. MikeRSR

    MikeRSR Formula Junior

    Jun 22, 2009
    476
    Surrey, England
    #1 MikeRSR, Jul 16, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
  2. davebuchner

    davebuchner Formula 3

    Jun 1, 2005
    2,487
    London UK
    Full Name:
    Dave Buchner
    I hate these threads :)

    If only ...
     
  3. stevenwk

    stevenwk F1 Veteran

    Apr 12, 2007
    5,470
    Metro Detroit
    Full Name:
    Steve
    Wish I knew then what I know now…..
     
  4. stradman

    stradman Formula 3

    Jan 8, 2004
    1,284
    London UK
    Full Name:
    Stradman
    Well you know Mike £26k for a 275 GTS in 1984 would have bought you a very nice 4 bedroom ground floor flat in St Johns Wood, London. Try buying that same flat today and you'd be looking at at least £2.5 million and up. I don't think the 275 GTS has reached anywhere that level yet right? I think the last one I remember sold for last August for about £650k. So maybe not the best investment choice........
     
  5. hhibbett

    hhibbett Karting

    Aug 24, 2008
    97
    So......do you think that, in 30 years from now, people will be saying "If I had only bought in 2014........"
     
  6. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    33,736
    Austin TX
    Full Name:
    Brian Crall
    Yes but a hamburger at McDonalds will be $100, gold will be $34,000/oz and that flat in St Johns Wood will be $48,000,000
     
  7. PAUL BABER

    PAUL BABER Formula 3

    Nov 1, 2006
    1,062
    London. UK.
    Full Name:
    Paul Baber
    NO.......2015 maybe.......
     
  8. hhibbett

    hhibbett Karting

    Aug 24, 2008
    97
    A one-year, price-correction from now then?
     
  9. PAUL BABER

    PAUL BABER Formula 3

    Nov 1, 2006
    1,062
    London. UK.
    Full Name:
    Paul Baber
    I'll stick my neck on the line and say yes........As a dealer I cant remember when I last spoke to a genuine enthusiast........they cant afford to even dream in this market.......It is entirely investment driven and historically investors tend to take profits. It will only take a small percentage to sell but when they do others will follow and yes I believe we will see a large price correction........Correction is the perfect word......
     
  10. 275GTB

    275GTB Formula 3

    Jan 12, 2010
    1,907
    London
    Full Name:
    Mark McCracken
    I'm with you on this Paul, no collectors buying anymore just speculators or nouveau riche waving some fresh cash that needs to move borders.

    Dealers are frantically peddling stock between one another to keep an already inflated market up there, so they can all bail out at the first chance they get before their own cliental figure out the move has already happened!

    Here is one of the smartest collector/car guys in the business publicly thinning out his collection:
    The ?Stradale? Collection | Salon Privé London
     
  11. hhibbett

    hhibbett Karting

    Aug 24, 2008
    97
    Thanks for making a prediction to "stick your neck on the line". If there is a correction, wouldn't you think it would take more than a year for it to stabilize? The one from the early 90's took a bit more time.
     
  12. BIRA

    BIRA Formula Junior

    Jun 15, 2007
    950
    interesting as the second ad with the 250PF was from Paul Baber, the trained eye can see he was already using the same spot in the same street to take pictures as today...he survived the 1990 crash (barely? or painfully, or happily may be he will answer..) but he has been in business for longer than most so he may have a point (of comparison) on cycles and bubbles...
     
  13. PAUL BABER

    PAUL BABER Formula 3

    Nov 1, 2006
    1,062
    London. UK.
    Full Name:
    Paul Baber
    Hi Bira......Actually the VERY trained eye will show that the add for the PF is not mine.......I know the place you refer to in my adds....which is in the mews opposite my garage......but you will see from my adds that there is no metal window frame on the building....... and......I have ALWAYS quoted chassis numbers in any advert........

    I 'survived' in 1990 as I had little or no stock...... I didn't have the collateral to borrow money and certainly didn't have the cash to buy at those prices.........1989-90 were horrid years for me....scarce business and poor income.....However by 1993 when it was globally accepted that the market had completely crashed I was inundated with cars on consignment......At one stage I had 49 vintage Ferrari for sale from desperate 'Investors' trying to bail out and finance houses liquidating reposessions.......

    Yes, I do think history will repeat itself.......it has a habit of doing so but I am not an economist so dont ask me why....However I fear that the auction houses which are now more firmly established will be the benefactors of the crash and not myself as a broker.....

    One last thought......... I purchased a 250 Lusso 5417 from a well known UK finance house in late 1993......I paid them GBP 55K.......It was financed by them for over 600K and then repossesed. I visited them some 18 months later and in their office was a large framed picture of the car.........Underneath was an inscription........LEST WE FORGET........
     
  14. BIRA

    BIRA Formula Junior

    Jun 15, 2007
    950

    Point taken!
    At least I made you react!
    10 cents to the dollar is not an unknown ratio when market crashes. I bought a Maserati Vignale convertible at the same period for 27.5 k GBP , previous owner had paid 250 in 1989.
    Took until 2012 to reach back same level. in last 2 years prices have doubled...if not more..how far can it go?
     
  15. stradman

    stradman Formula 3

    Jan 8, 2004
    1,284
    London UK
    Full Name:
    Stradman
    Well this goes to show how we are fast approaching the heady days of 1989. The Lusso had a list price of about $12500 in 1964 or about 4k GBP.

    The relative value of 4k from 1964 in 1989 was about 32k so if the car was sold for say 600k as you suggest in 1989 this equates to just under 19x the relative value.

    In 2013 the relative value of 4k GBP from 1964 was 70k. Taking into consideration that in 2013 average sales of 250 Lusso's were 800-850k(GBP) this equates to about 12x multiple.

    For 2014, although I don't know have any exact sales figures to hand for this year, I see that is RM putting up a 250 lusso at Monterey for an estimate 1.9-2.5 million(USD). If we assume it hits the upper estimate then this will translate to about 21x multiple, and hence more than 1989.......
     
  16. Qksilver

    Qksilver F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    Feb 11, 2005
    4,316
    Philadelphia
    Full Name:
    Joe
    You also have to consider supply and demand in addition to inflation. Looking forward, there is an increased ambient and organic global demand for luxury items in 2014+ in addition to these "new" speculative investors that are blowing the ceiling off these cars. This set of long-term buyers who will continue to follow their passion should not be underestimated. The global pie of able buyers has grown significantly since 1989 and will only continue to spawn more demand over time. But the supply of Vintage Ferrari will not; the denominator will never change.

    Looking backward, not all who bought in the last two years will freak out and decide to sell at the first sights of the top.

    These dynamics would likely normalize the multiple well below your '89 19X. This market is not running at a sustainable rate, but there is huge new global wealth that has eyes on a relatively small supply of something and that will put a floor on pricing. I say the "correction" will be a slow deflation to still-elevated pricing rather than a bubble popping.
     
  17. ryanbushell

    ryanbushell Formula Junior

    Mar 25, 2012
    713
    England
    Full Name:
    Ryan Bushell
    Having looked over this thread, I thought I'd also chime in.

    As a younger enthusiast, and with the values continually rising at an exponential rate, it seems that people of my generation will only dream of owning a 50s/60s Ferrari. As a matter of fact, with the way things are going, even a 70s vintage Ferrari is becoming out of reach of many. The days of Dino's for 40k seem long gone, but I am sure that they will return.

    I was recently at the Silverstone Classic Auction, and looked at buying the 308 there. It wasn't the best example I've seen, with a dubious mileage history, doors that didn't fit properly, but still sold for £82k inclusive of buyers premium. This just symbolises the fact that the Ferrari market is still on an upward trend, but the question of when it will stop seems to evade us all.

    Now here's my dilemma. As many of you know, I sell the books, tools and parts for most vintage F cars. Therefore, I obviously want to see prices keep on going up, as that means the prices of the parts rise in tandem. However, as a potential buyer and enthusiast, I would like the prices of the cars to decline, so that I am able to purchase a Dino, Daytona, or maybe even a 275.

    Personally I believe that the Ferrari market will crash eventually, but not for a while. At the moment the cars being traded at astronomical values are also an investment, as well as a piece of automotive history. When other potential investments reach the same return levels, people will undoubtedly pull their money out of classic cars (a longer term investment), and put that money into alternatives. Consequently there should be a higher supply and relatively less demand (hopefully), thus leading to lower prices. We may not see a crash like the 90s, but I am sure that there will be, as Paul says, a "correction" in prices.

    Another factor is that it seems, people from my generation, are not as interested in classic Ferrari cars as the people who currently own them. My generation are more interested in the Lamborghini Aventador's, Bugatti Veyron's and other modern super cars. As a result, I believe that prices of vintage F cars will decline when my generation comes of age to purchase such cars. They will be interested in purchasing more modern super cars, and because of the higher production numbers, their values will not reach the levels seen of vintage F cars. Special edition cars, produced in limited numbers will obviously increase at a higher rate, due to a lower supply, but I believe that eventually, classic V12 Ferrari cars will eventually and gradually decline in price over the coming decades.
     
  18. LARRYH

    LARRYH F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 3, 2011
    9,142
    virginia usa
    this is a very interesting thread and while I am certainly no expert I know that as soon as INVESTORS are buying cars vs enthusiast it will ultimately cause an issue with over evaluation followed by a devaluation.. As was said earlier all investors are going to look for a return and will sell according to their business plan . Now the real issues occurs when the market is being Driven buy these investors and the enthusiasts are being pushed out due to massively inflated prices which we could be seeing now. I have seen prices over the last few years that have shot up at an seemingly unreal pace. When it comes time to excit the investors will move quick and when the investors are no longer buying the market will drop drastically the enthusiast may have the opportunity to get some good deals but prices will likely fall quickly once and if it happens .. Now if the current buyers are real enthusiasts then to me that means the prices are realistic today and are supported as the enthusiasts are buying the cars out of passion and will likely hold them and not run a the first hiccup in pricing...
    I guess it just all depends on who the current buyers are..
     

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