812 Market Dynamics | Page 28 | FerrariChat

812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

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  1. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    Rather than a good deal I would call it a value trap ... If you go into the market now .. There is ample room for further dives.... F12 markets have plunged to 160/ 170k and 599 to around 100k.... Just think what's going to happen when you'll have all the guys that bought pre owned realising what's happening... By definition they are less informed and financially strong.... Everybody who bought pre owned last few months is down 30/40 k... For a pre owned car it's really crazy... the second/ third owner cars will at some point hit the market and add further pressure... As you said it's not even about value anymore but liquidity... The cars just don't sell... Dealers will at max buy costumer cars in exchange ... But even that is drying up .. I heard of customers where dealers don't want to put the car on balance sheet even though the customers are picking up a new car.. . Also look at the video I posted few pages back... The only way to get out of a Lusso was to swap into another pre owned car


    This is a falling knife and we have three more V12 s coming in the next 15 months.... It's a great car but if 50-100k matter in any shape or form it's better to stay out, pre-owned included
     
    09Scuderia likes this.
  2. VladimirB

    VladimirB Rookie

    May 16, 2016
    26
    Moscow, Russia
    I think we are overcomplicating things a bit.

    As with any luxury good, there is at least a 50% gross margin embedded in the price there for the first-user sale.

    The first buyers are usually people which are very price-insensitive. Their purchase is not a result of a pure utility/price comparison behaviour.

    Then what happens in the secondary market is a combination of sentiment, desire, opportunity cost of funds, macro-cycle and a variety of other factors which are more rational, rather than emotional.

    Clearly there is a floor for modern V12 cars given their relative abundance vs demand - at a price level of a new lesser but still quite fast cars such as Roma, Porsche Turbo S, Hurracan etc.

    Buyers at these price levels still naturally gravitate to new cars vs 2-nd hand - so whether prices for 2-3 year old cars converge around new well-optioned Roma/Turbo S or slightly below, is a question of not why, but when.

    Then the cycle repeats, but at a lower level.

    There is absolutely nothing which prevents this downward spiral from happening. All the talk about the "last V12 atmo engine etc." is complete bullocks from the market/real 2nd hand buyer perspective.
     
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  3. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

    Apr 2, 2012
    2,064
    England
    Full Name:
    Scraggy
    Very cool thread, the point that really resonated with me was the one re Ferrari dealers not offering sensible liquidity against new cars. From what my dealer tells me new is holding up surprisingly well but if I took an 812/Pista Spider in for say my GTS at full list and was not offered a sensible P/X the whole thing unravels.

    UK dealers on non linked sales only really doing SOR on basis of “better for client, better net yield” but we all know the real story they have got used to years of stable or rising stock values and the business environment has been disrupted. If they have £3m of stock right now thats a £300,000 PA annualised depreciation charge before they get started.

    I for one would be out if my dealer ceased to offer P/Ex liquidity on their own product at sensible money. I can see that day coming and then (not now) new sales will be badly affected IMHO.
     
    Bundy likes this.
  4. nads

    nads Formula Junior

    Jun 4, 2008
    875
    London, UK
    So what is sensible money and who determines that benchmark? What is sensible to one person could be a disaster for another. The unravelling has already started, the only way to slow it is to limit supply and limit the rampant model releases of late.......everything else is just smoke and mirrors. I would hazard to say that no dealer would currently offer liquidity without a sizeable haircut to the market, they rather deflect the risk via SOR.
     
  5. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    #680 1881, Dec 11, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2019
    The liquidity aspect is starting to happen, might be still individual cases, but others might follow suit.... It's just logical, pre owned has grinded to a halt...I doubt any dealer made money on 812 pre-owned, quite the opposite given how fast they started to dive and assuming regular dealer margins.... At the same time Ferrari is pushing faster release cycles driving more trade ins.... At some point it naturally breaks, it has to... And that point is nearly there as far as I can tell... The type of disconnected we are seeing between new and pre-owned just never holds up in any type market... There might be delays in the way things feed through, but ultimately things readjust

    In any case, I wouldn't buy any (new) car without guaranteed (and in writing) liquidity on the way in and on the way out, no downside, just protects from bad surprises given how fast dynamics are moving at the moment
     
  6. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    SOR by definition is not liquidity... Cars sitting months on end....
     
  7. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

    Aug 27, 2009
    705
    Europe
    Full Name:
    Paul
    And then tomorrow does not come. There is a big difference between market realties than to be consistently being a doom merchant. If you want an 812 buy it and drive it, else wait ten years until it hits 100k. All you are talking about is a depreciating car, basically what any car does and has done.
    So tell what is your price point, what price do you want the 812 to hit before you buy, what are you discussing or asking ? So you can stop stressing about losing money and get out driving. That is the reason you own these cars. If the financial stress is too much go and find another car you are less concerned about. You are talking yourself into a frenzy, why ? What is the point of posting if you don't want to actually buy a car. If you are worried about losing money, that is fine, but don't buy a Ferrari 812. There , your worries are solved. Zero depreciation.
     
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  8. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 11, 2013
    10,860
    The irony is a few years ago a thread like this would bemoan all the mileage sensitivity and how people are not driving their cars. Fundamentally I think the market got used to being inside a bubble, mistaking that for normal. That was not normal and now we are going back to something approaching normalcy.
     
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  9. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 11, 2013
    10,860
    You would be correct if all cars go electric immediately.

    But I don't think that is likely in the next decade. And I think Ferrari would likely keep some kind of ICE in the mix because of the emotions.

    Also I think Ferrari does all sorts of "non driving things" extremely well. They have some incredible events, etc.

    Back to the driving, I think the Ferrari driving interface is the best out there with the Manettino. It is far superior to all the others where you are forced to pick from so many options, none of which in any combination ends up being just right. Yet, they have several modes, all which make complex adjustments to a myriad of systems, and result in real useable driving experiences.

    I also think they are addressing their other interfaces- what's in the GTC4 is actually very good and the SF90 interface looks like a winner.
     
    Bundy likes this.
  10. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

    Apr 2, 2012
    2,064
    England
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    Scraggy
    I was at the factory last week and there is a massive battery and electric related facility being built, truly huge.
     
  11. KenU

    KenU Formula Junior

    Oct 14, 2004
    543
    Planet Earth
    Full Name:
    Ken
    Boom! What a post, Paul!!! (Where is there a hand clapping emoji on this site?)
     
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  12. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Feb 4, 2014
    9,586
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    Maximus Decimus Meridius
    These are really great cars; however, lets not kid ourselves. Once one fine example sets the low price every other one drops like a rock and does not recover. The 812 decline is amazing. Many here are still waiting for theirs to arrive. Its really not fair but at least new car owners will get to experience what the next owner will never know. Best to drive and enjoy and not even check the prices. Buy to own or stay out and just read about them. :)
     
  13. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    Why then you just go out and drive your 812 rather than sitting in front of a screen and stressing about a post...that probably solves your problem...if you are not interested in how values of 812 develop that's totally fine, why you are reading this post is a mystery to me.....suggest you start a thread called 'how much i enjoy driving my 812' and have your discussion there

    I am neither a doom merchant nor stressed...i am stating what i see in the market and what i think will happen and am interested in what other people are seeing...that IS the market reality and all my guesses about where the market is going have materialised so far....as the replies on here imply, there is a meaningful proportion of people interested in such a discussion....and it is not just this thread, the fact that Ferrari extended its product release cycle by one year is testament that it does matter to a large proportion of the market (and it is a result of people speaking up and voicing their discontent)....but hey ignorance is bliss, so better stay in your bubble

    when is the right time to buy a 812?.... i don't have a crystal ball otherwise i would be sitting in my 812, my yacht, my jet and my spaceship not caring less about the world....but I am sure that by now you know where to find the answer once I know

    I am looking forward to seeing your posts on how much you are enjoying your 812...good luck!
     
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  14. BarryK

    BarryK Formula 3

    Dec 17, 2016
    1,160
    Europe
    Full Name:
    Barry K
    When the OP, @1881 has 57 of his 65 posts so far focused on 812 depreciation on this thread, it is not surprising people wonder why. While it may be just a case of discussing for the sake of discussion, often people get the idea that a thread like this might actually impact prices. The reality is that the market out there is much bigger and hardly takes notice of a thread like this. So if the aim is to get into an 812 at a certain price point, save yourself the keystrokes, and just buy if and when the market gets there.
     
  15. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

    Apr 2, 2012
    2,064
    England
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    Scraggy
    LOL nice one
     
  16. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    #691 1881, Dec 12, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
    :D:D..OMG you are hilarious thanks for making me laugh...yes I admit, you caught me red handed:oops:, it was my evil plan from the very beginning to drive down prices to get a cheap deal for myself :cool: ...what you seem to be missing though is that I've been pretty successful in my strategy....I've already shaved off +£80k of the 812's since May...that's £1,400 per post...not bad I would say...more to come and thanks for your response driving the discussion, gives me the chance for another post and another £1,400 off my future 812

    ....and Pinky (@BarryK) tonight we are going to take over the world...in a cheap 812 :rolleyes::rolleyes:
    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  17. Hex

    Hex Karting

    May 1, 2009
    95
    I didnt buy my 812 as an investment. I found one with low mileage and a phenomenal spec that my wife and I both love and I bargained as much as I could for it. Did I save money compared to buying a new one with the same spec, you bet I did, but I still payed more than I can sell it for because we bought it as a long term keeper. And with each immensely satisfying drive, I’m more and more thrilled with the car, and pleased with our purchase. If you actually drive your car, then depreciation is just a usage fee. With this car, it’s money I’m happy to pay.
     
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  18. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

    May 18, 2011
    2,374
    Arizona & Kentucky
    Full Name:
    Anir
    I can’t speak for others, but depreciation is not a big issue for me on any long-term keepers. If it was, I wouldn’t have owned 3 Tailor Made cars.

    Where depreciation does enter the equation for me is on the expected serial purchases. Secondhand cars just aren’t moving, even at lower and lower prices. Dealers are becoming reluctant to take cars on trade.

    It’s no fun to get stuck with a 488 GTB when a Pista is en route, or a F12 when the 812 has arrived, etc, etc. And taking six figure losses on every temporary expected car purchase does change the serial purchase game for me. I suspect a few other self-made folks might feel the same.

    Do what you love with your money. Personally, I plan to take advantage of the new paradigm and look to the past for future purchases. I think @sampellegrino played it beautifully to trade the 488 GTB in on a 458 Speciale.
     
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  19. Hex

    Hex Karting

    May 1, 2009
    95
    #694 Hex, Dec 12, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
    I agree. Serial purchases to gain access to desired cars are costly and add up over time when the second hand market is not moving much. Purchasing a gem on the second hand market or trading cars with a dealer to get a pre-owned gem is becoming a more cost effective strategy. Sam did indeed play the game well. He’s a smart man.
     
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  20. Thecadster

    Thecadster F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 27, 2017
    6,705
    I wholeheartedly agree. Here is how I intend to play the next several years. I already have two long term keepers that I spec’d and purchased new (Performante and 812). Like Bundy, I could scarcely care less what those cars are “worth”. It’s immaterial. Over time I will look to add immaculate pre-owned models of cars that fit holes in my modest little collection. I am anxiously monitoring 675LT’s right now. Eventually I will add a bargain 991.2 GT3 RS or even GT2. Who knows? At the rapid pace of depreciation, maybe I will add a SF90 in the next several years. As a patient pre-owned buyer, the new normal might not be all bad.
     
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  21. ScrappyB

    ScrappyB Formula 3

    Oct 3, 2017
    1,369
    Full Name:
    T
    I have 3 friends ready to pull the trigger on a 675LT. Two of them already own one and are thinking about adding a second as we unanimously agree the car is currently under-valued. I’ve also been thinking of adding a spider to sit alongside my 675 coupe.

    If you’re ever going to own one McLaren, this is the car.
     
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  22. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jul 1, 2013
    15,983
    Menlo Park, CA
    Full Name:
    Paul Chua
    Rolex makes at least 800,000+ watches a year (I hear 1M is about the right number). AP makes 40,000

    Or said another way 1 : 40-50

    I think you meant to say Porsche is the Rolex of the car world with their ~300K projected this year vs Ferrari at 10K - 1 : 30
     
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  23. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jul 1, 2013
    15,983
    Menlo Park, CA
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    Paul Chua
    #698 paulchua, Dec 12, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
    It saddens me when a person goes from an 812 on order, (as far as selecting final wheels and soliciting input); to devolve into enjoying the discussion and prognostication of the car's intrinsic value over the the prospect of actually driving it.

    I think I now understand why Enzo loathed specific customers.

    It's like going to a fancy gourmet restaurant and forgetting the reason was to eat and enjoy the wine, not to obsess about the $hi! you'll need to take afterward.
     
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  24. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 11, 2013
    10,860
    I agree with many of everyone's points. Lets face it, you buy the car because you love it- whether its to drive or just to look at- we all have our reasons. But we also work hard for our money, so when the depreciation picks up, it does mean its more difficult to keep holding, and/or to fantasize about what comes next, because its just that much more expensive. I think Ferrari is in between two different models and right now we are getting some bumps in the road. That doesn't make it any better for many of us, myself included. I would very much prefer to not see my 812 lose value. But, when I ordered it, I have to say, I did it eyes wide open, this happens with front engine V12 Ferraris, and there has been a trend for many years now away from front engine based cars in the market place. I think we're all here for similar reasons, we love Ferrari, or are at least interested, and if we can't be behind the wheel, then we can at least talk about them.

    As an aside, I put another 60+ miles on my GTC4 today- its very cold here and she is on winter tires- what a blast of a car drive- sublimely judged for its intended mission. I love being able to put the power down and have the car rocket out of bends!

    Forza V12, Forza Ferrari! :)
     
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  25. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

    Aug 27, 2009
    705
    Europe
    Full Name:
    Paul
    He is just a troll. There are owners here, accepting the market, but loving their cars. Others getting into them at great prices. We are all grown ups, you make decisions. But this person who wants to keep saying "oh no, the price has dropped again, shock, horror, what a situation " when they went from a car on order to clearly having no intention of buying is a waste of time and an irritation. I don't like the price drop, but I can accept it is a great opportunity for people to get an astonishing car for a great price. Live for today tomorrow may never come. The troll is a prize....
     
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