458 values/trends | FerrariChat

458 values/trends

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by Joe P., Mar 29, 2018.

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  1. Joe P.

    Joe P. Karting

    Feb 22, 2018
    74
    Charlotte NC USA
    Full Name:
    Joe P.
    I know this topic is discussed here occasionally but I like to rekindle it every so often. I track 458 values closely since doing a lot of research on the car before pulling the trigger on my 2014 about 5 weeks ago. I have heard all the "opinions" including "458 values are in freefall" and "as more 488 owners dump their 458's values will continue to be under pressure" and "they built too many 458's in the 6 year period, it's naturally aspirated yeah but will never be a special car other than that fact". My friends- i'm seeing none of that. I check cargurus multi-year trends and sales prices for the car and values are not dropping precipitously at all. I am still seeing 2010's/11's- these are 7-8 year old cars and even with high miles (35K'ish) they are selling for 150's K. The 2014 I'm seeing flatlined or slightly up since October 2017- so for the last 6 months there has been zero drop on average. See link below for yourself you can isolate certain years or look at them all. For the argument that "there are too many 458's built" I call bullshale on that one. The average consensus is that F made around 18,000 units in the 6 year production run. That means on average 3,000 units a year. There is the USA, Europe Middle East China Japan and rest of Asia Australia New Zealand etc. Take that 3,000 units per year and spread that out- then extract from that stolen and totaled units and that 3,000 is mitigated further. In addition- by taking a 300K car on average when new and making it in the high 100's as an example, you are introducing an entirely new segment of buyers who are more comfortable with spending sub 200 than there are paying 300, which is certainly a significantly smaller population, so fetching that 300K Ferrari for say 175 is more attractive to more people. Also let's all admit that the general population/non-car people have no freeking clue what the distinct differences are with a 458 and a 488- not a clue- only car geeks and F owners know the immediate differences just by looking at the car from the outside, so in a 458 it's not like you're getting a tired design that has been completely remodeled, it is simply a refinement, for lack of better words, that as said before- no one knows the difference anyway outside of car people.

    Let me know your thoughts...

    https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Ferrari-458-Italia-d2064
     
  2. obbob

    obbob Formula Junior

    Aug 14, 2017
    774
    A 458 Italia will still depreciate for the years to come. There are no shortage of them and they are not collectibles. A 2014 458 Italia has no reason to go up in value right now.

    Ferrari made about 20,000 458 worldwide. United States is generally at least 33% of total.

    Buy a 458 and enjoy it. Don’t buy it thinking it’s an investment that will go up in value.
     
    KC360 FL, Avia11, 3POINT8 and 3 others like this.
  3. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 11, 2013
    10,860
    I agree with both of you. I think the 458 will depreciate, but I think its rate of depreciation will be a bit more gentle than past models. I just think that's because many of the innovations in the car like the DCT make it more relatable to many of todays buyers than cars from before the FF/458.
     
    Shadowfax likes this.
  4. kiryu

    kiryu Formula Junior

    Mar 28, 2016
    407
    Los Angeles
    Thanks for sharing your findings. I noticed that in 2018 the 458 values really started coming down quite a lot. Yeah to me 150 isnt really holding at all (comparing to the past 5 years). Considering the fact that f430s are still in low 100s any day, 150 isnt all that much for a very updated car.I am guessing the sub 200k market is now busier than ever and that is kinda driving down the price of the 458 as people have more choices. You got the 2 year old 570s reaching 160, the older 650s, the new and old GT3s, the 2-3 year old huracans, new R8s and NSX that are not selling at 130-140s....a few months ago i saw a 135k 458 with 50k miles, took a while to sell..that's kinda bummer to see. I seriously think our cars should be worth more lol
     
  5. Joe P.

    Joe P. Karting

    Feb 22, 2018
    74
    Charlotte NC USA
    Full Name:
    Joe P.
    458 with 50K miles for 135K is not a bargain when for 150 you can get one with 25K miles (my opinion). You do make valid points however
     
    KC360 FL likes this.
  6. Joe P.

    Joe P. Karting

    Feb 22, 2018
    74
    Charlotte NC USA
    Full Name:
    Joe P.
    I should have reiterated- the 458 is NOT an investment. Other than the 1 out of 499 cars it's not an investment. I buy real estate as an investment and my tenants buy me a Ferrari amongst other things but the Ferrari itself is not an investment. My point was that it's holding value well relative to what some say
     
  7. kiryu

    kiryu Formula Junior

    Mar 28, 2016
    407
    Los Angeles
    the most epic one I have seen is 88k miles 458 selling for 93k. Sold in a few days i think. Happened about a year ago
     
  8. Joe P.

    Joe P. Karting

    Feb 22, 2018
    74
    Charlotte NC USA
    Full Name:
    Joe P.
    WOW.
     
  9. Afonsolaw

    Afonsolaw Formula 3

    Sep 11, 2011
    1,908
    New jersey
    I think the 458 is a great car for the money ... personally I am not interested in the 488 base or spider model.... however the Pista is another story all together! But my 458 spider is here to stay love the 9k rpm in my ear along with that exhaust note... and personally the base 488 and spider looks kited up ... the 488 Pista Ferrari got it right ;)
     
  10. AlfistaPortoghese

    AlfistaPortoghese Moderator
    Lifetime Rossa

    Mar 18, 2014
    3,778
    Europe, but not by much.
    Full Name:
    Nuno
    It will depreciate, once it's a car. Still:

    https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458-slowest-depreciating-car.550027/

    And why, imho, it will bottom out slower and at a higher value than any other Ferrari before:

    https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/458-milestones.533582/

    I haven't witnessed here in Europe significant changes in value since I've bought mine (2016).

    Kind regards,

    Nuno.
     
  11. Natkingcolebasket69

    Natkingcolebasket69 F1 World Champ

    Of course it’s depreciating.
    Ferraris go through cycles:
    1-sell over sticker
    2-depreciate
    3-stabilize
    4- go up pr waaaaay up like the tr because of some bubble then stabilizes

    Of course that’s only for main Ferrari’s not special edition ones


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Afonsolaw likes this.
  12. FerrariFL

    FerrariFL Formula Junior

    Dec 2, 2012
    524
    The 458 is one of best values in the super car market, period. It says a lot when many prefer the 458 over 488 when they have had both, icluidng me. I have a spider and a Speciale and couldn't be happier with the combo. Just think a 2018 GT3 is selling for more $ than an early Italia...
     
    Tsachi458, Afonsolaw, xfrgtr and 2 others like this.
  13. Cigarzman

    Cigarzman F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    The only mistake you will make is not buying one. This life we have is not a dressed rehearsal. Best , Kirk.
     
    Penguin, Afonsolaw, JP Manor and 5 others like this.
  14. Need4Spd

    Need4Spd F1 Veteran

    Feb 24, 2007
    6,645
    Silicon Valley
    Thanks for your insights based on your observations of the 458 market. In addition to the adjustment for cars stolen and totaled, there are a number of cars where the original buyer made unpopular choices in specifying colors. Some of those choices simply make the cars harder to sell, but some make them almost unsalable. (Well, there may be one buyer for that purple car with a yellow interior and blue dash...but....).

    It wasn’t by any means a driving factor or even a very significant one, but one reason I sold my California to get a 458 was the difference in depreciation curves. The Cali’s value (mine not even a “30”) was plunging while the 458s seemed to be on a less steep curve. Based on the OP’s observations, it seems I made a good choice financially.


    Sent from my iPad using FerrariChat.com mobile app
     
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  15. PA Wolfpacker

    PA Wolfpacker Formula Junior

    Aug 19, 2007
    653
    Naples, FL
    Full Name:
    Neil
    Guys, we are kidding ourselves if we think 458s are going to depreciate at a slower rate than previous Ferrari models. Regardless of the desirability of the 488 the market is saturated with competitive alternatives to the 458 and that will continue to depress resale prices.

    Going forward all future Ferrari models will face similar market forces. Ferrari will produce more units and that will exacerbate the situation. My fear is we will begin to see Ferrari’s begin to depreciate like Lambo’s and McLaren’s very quickly.

    Buy the Ferrari you like, drive the hell out of it and enjoy it for as long as you can. Forget about the depreciation, you can’t control it anyway.
     
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  16. SVCalifornia

    SVCalifornia Formula 3
    Rossa Subscribed

    Mar 28, 2011
    2,447
    Silicon Valley
    Full Name:
    Keith
    Wait... and it wasn’t all your friends pulling away from you on the Saturday drive???

    8^)

    SV


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
  17. Shark01

    Shark01 F1 Veteran

    Jun 25, 2005
    5,687
    So far they HAVE depreciated slower than the 430, 360, etc I think because the 488 was a radical change that alot of people didn't agree with. Now that the 488 has gained acceptance (recall all those bashing threads in the beginning?) the depreciation rate should increase some.
     
  18. gilly6993

    gilly6993 Formula 3

    Aug 20, 2009
    2,475
    Longmeadow, MA
    Full Name:
    Eric
    Agreed. I am looking to make the switch from my 5 year old 458 to a Lusso, likely to be the worst depreciating car I will have ever owned but right now fits my needs the best. My 458 has lost about $100K from its MSRP in 2013 which if you think about it isn’t too bad. Lusso’s I’m looking at have already lost $80K or so in year one. Now that’s serious depreciation

    All these car are terrible “investments”. But a ton of fun to own. No regrets


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  19. LVP488

    LVP488 F1 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2017
    4,839
    France
    There has been an unusual (speculative) market situation for all Ferrari in 2014 to 2015 (for whatever reason), this happened right when the 458 would have suffered its highest depreciation.
    This has helped the 458 to perform well regarding depreciation, but it has helped the F12 exactly the same way - I do not believe in this magical feature of "last NA V8", nor in the magical "last Pininfarina design" for the F12.
    In the end there is still room for depreciation for these recent cars, before they stabilise for a long time and eventually go up again.
     
  20. Welford10

    Welford10 Karting

    Dec 26, 2013
    107
    England
    Full Name:
    Gary
    Prices still high in the uk.

    I will watch the market over spring and see where they end up.

    Low mileage, good spec and colour combo sell well and top money.
     
    Joe P. likes this.
  21. BlueIn2Red

    BlueIn2Red Karting

    Sep 29, 2006
    233
    Tring, UK
    I half agree with this - in my opinion the 458 is depreciating more slowly because the difference between it and the 488 is less than that seen in previous V8s. In particular, the gearbox is essentially the same, when previous generations (355-360, 360-430 and 430-458) saw big leaps in this area. Engine wise some even see the 488 engine as a step backwards (in terms of character and sound at least, obviously not performance). Visually even there isn't that much of a change (and one of the main ones, the air intakes for the turbos, is arguably not for the better as well).
     
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  22. PA Wolfpacker

    PA Wolfpacker Formula Junior

    Aug 19, 2007
    653
    Naples, FL
    Full Name:
    Neil
    It would be nice to have access to actual sales data to prove your point. I can tell you when I did the research when purchasing the 458 I had a good feel for used 430 pricing. Later when I sold my 458 I KNOW exactly what I received when it was traded in. Now, taking the information posted on this site on 488 sales it appears there is a general trend for the 458 and the 488 to sell below list at a faster rate than the 430.

    The problem is two fold, one MSRP is not always available and just because someone is asking a price for a car does not mean they will get it.
     
  23. Ey55doc

    Ey55doc Rookie

    Mar 11, 2018
    30
    Leeds, uk
    Full Name:
    S R
    Friends
    Does it really matter the depreciation curve ... anyone buying a 5-6 yr old Italia is buying a great car which has had significant depreciation already and will likely depreciate at a slower rate .. in the end if it’s for keeps - so what ? If resale in a few yrs time we just have to take a hit like we do with any car .. we should just enjoy the cars for what they are and make our investments in things that do generally appreciate such as property or business ! Cars are for fun ! Unless you’re a car dealer of course
     
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  24. ArtOnWheels

    ArtOnWheels Rookie

    Sep 11, 2018
    38
    Full Name:
    Full Name
    I’ve had mine for almost a year now. What I found surprising was the amount of kids in the neighbourhood who knew exactly what model it was and said it was their favourite car in the world. These kids were even doing presentations at school on the car for science class. These are the future buyers. For all those out there who had the Countach poster on the wall, the 458 is that car for the current demographic of what a lot of us once were. Once they make their money, they will be on the hunt for their childhood dream car. The difference is, for many of us, like the Countach, a naturally aspirated non hybrid roaring performer was still available 30 years later. For them I highly doubt it will be. There will be an even greater premium to be paid fo that aspect alone. In the meantime, drive it. The sound.....oh that sound!
     
  25. AlfistaPortoghese

    AlfistaPortoghese Moderator
    Lifetime Rossa

    Mar 18, 2014
    3,778
    Europe, but not by much.
    Full Name:
    Nuno
    Good point. The 458 is a pinup Ferrari. Lots of kids with a 458 poster on their bedroom wall as some of us had the Testarossa back in the 1980s. Don't know if the car will be more valued and sought after in a couple of years or not, but for all intents and purposes, the last naturally aspirated V8 is always a candidate to be cherished and valued. I'll keep mine forever, regardless of appreciation or depreciation, and I'm waiting to see which Ferrari is going to be the last naturally aspirated V12, to add it to my garage. Milestone cars for every proper petrolhead!

    Kind regards,

    Nuno.
     
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