456 manual transmission prices on the rise?

I think itś not really happening. Naples Msports always seems to be +15% over comparable asking prices. Then thereś the 612s sitting there. They are to a 456 what a 456 is to a 412. I know we talk about price because they are Ferraris. But I dont think these are going anywhere pricewise. Makes you wish you didnt have one almost right? Just so you can go out and get a bargain on such a great car.

I see you recognize that they look fabulous in black.

 

Moe, as a 6 speed owner, I hope you're right. But, are you trying to pick a fight? I've defended the auto's based on ownership of an auto Corvette (....the only sports car I've had w/o a stick). The GM 4 speed auto (isn't that what's in the 456?) is not bad.

Still, I've been thinking just the same as you. With the advent of paddle shifter's, our cars 456/550 and a few 575's manuals, should be collectible....

Saw a '97 GTA, no reserve, sell on Ebay for $33.6K last week. Seems like most ads are for A's or the '95/'96 model.

Could the modern V-12, 6 speed become the "new" GTO? I doubt it....but the thought has occurred to me of how rare manual F-cars are becoming....

Regards...Mark
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I am also a great enthusiast and owner of a 456GT manual, but I believe our fate is more the way of the 412 than anything else.

The other basic fact are production numbers, there are far too many.

I believe over 1500 manual GT's were built and another 600/700 GT M. (total with Autos is 3300).

Perhaps we should look at history to see what the future will be:

The total production of the 400/412 was around 2200 vs. 3300 for the 456.

True, the 456 is a better and more desirable car, but how desirable must it be for prices to go out and become collectable?

Another "fact" is that there are far too many on the market, it seems more people are willing to sell than those to buy...

Look on ebay (Germany/US/Italy) or any big online car platform and you will find on any given day tons of 456's for sale.

Accidents, fires, write-offs, breakers could change these metrics by reducing the amount of available cars.

The question is, who will ultimately be the buyers (collectors) of these cars?

How many 400/412 are left and how many 456 are left?

Only time will tell...but one part of the story has already been told.

 

The manuals may be more fun to us old guys and in my view a better car but the market will be driven by the auto brigade. There is more of them, they are younger and they will have our money too.

 

I have looked at that car in Naples twice. It seems like they had it sold for a while, then it re-appeared. 90k is just crazy to me, when you can buy a decent 612 for 95k.

I would love to buy the Naples car for 65k, which I truly feel is where the market is for a very nice one, which this one appears to be.

I just don't think of these cars as collectible. I struggle to see how any modern Ferrari, other than the 288GTO, F40, Enzo, is going to appreciate much. They are just far too common.

Scott

 

Moe, great question...Looking at this thread, someone said there are/were 317 M's in the US and about 250 non-M's.

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/456-550-575/401922-there-numbers-456ms-color.html

Since all the 1st year US cars ('95) were manuals and there wasn't officially a 2nd year, 10% sounds too low??? Perhaps for the M????? Anybody else have anything?

Regards...Mark

 

i was told by the dealer in london that there were 489 lhd mgt's and 128 rhd mgt's for a total of 617 mgt's.

which is a useful figure if you are trying to argue that the values should rise because of low build numbers....

however, the problem is you always need more people than there are cars, to believe in the same thing.

so lets say there are 600 of these still on the road.
lets say at any given moment 20% of them are for sale, that makes 120 cars at any one time around the world....well to have the prices rise, and not just stagnate, you have to have more than 120 buyers looking specifically for that car every year...and unfortunately i just dont see it.

i am the only one i ever see in geneva. but everyone else is driving a 612.

i exaggerate of course, but its basically the case that somebody who has 100k to spend on a gt has a lot of options, not least of which is the 612 which is a fantastic car. the simple idea that a manual is still desirable is not enough. it is also considered an anachronism. and 599', 612's and even california's could be ordered with manuals, but they were not in more than a few dozen - so the message to everybody including ferrari is that manuals are not considered appropriate on a modern ferrari anymore.

so the 456mgt will only rise in value significantly when we are all dead.

 

Ross- It also helps that, unlike the 400-412 series three speed automatic, the four speed automatic in the 456 and 456M GTA is very well matched to the engine characteristics, much like an automatic Corvette with similar transmission.

The final production numbers I have from Maranello Concessionaires for the 456M are 668 GT/660 Auto, with UK RHD production of 33 GT/139 Auto. Note it appears this is the opposite of 575M production, where a much higher percentage of UK cars were three pedal than the rest of world average. UK drivers used the 456M GTA differently than the two seater 575M, and the much higher percentage of automatics demonstrates this.

There are definitely good 612s available for around $100K. The 612 is undoubtedly a better car, but whether it will prove to be a better Ferrari remains to be seen.

 

Hear, hear. The 456MGTA and my Porsche 993 Carrera Targa are the only performance cars that I've had where I didn't have a manual tranny. Although it's more fun to stir the gearbox, if you put the lever in 3, flick the rocker switch to Sport and drive aggressively, the car will select the right gear for spirited driving. At all other times, especially in heavy traffic, normal Drive mode is very convenient.

 

I have driven fast cars for 40 years, I now drive a 456m at the speeds that these
cars are capable of the only place your hands should be are on the wheel,
Regarding future prices most people looking to get into Ferrari ownership will
not have a clue how to drive stick.

 

Moe- Those are posterior numbers, with little basis, made at initial introduction. Since most Ferraris are ordered, a new owner could get whatever he wanted.

 

Here’s another perspective from maybe the newest owner on this thread and someone that relatively recently bought a Ferrari….

A little over a year ago, I started looking for a new toy; 100K+ budget. I had been looking at Lambo Countachs for years but wasn't locked in to anything I had to have. Broadened my search to Diablos, Gallardos, Murcielagos, Z06’s, Vipers, ZR1’s, etc. and of course, Ferraris…..

What I wanted was something reminiscent for my RWD, stick, early 70’s 240Z’s (“Some say…” that Datsun was about as close as you could get in looks and feel to a 250 GTO or maybe a Daytona … if you were $$$ challenged.)

Anyway, quickly found the concept of RWD and stick eliminated most of the Lambos. AWD and E-gears were the norm…..(Not that I have anything against AWD….my previous Stealth AWD TT was at one time the fastest car in the world…to a whopping 30mph!….) Still, those cars were missing something… if you've driven a high powered AWD, you know what I mean...Just not as fun...

Then there were the American cars…Claustrophobic tubs?

The 456 wasn't even on my list, but I soon found it met my criteria. Thought an M would be better because newer and more refined, but those were mostly auto’s, and although not eliminated, I liked the non-M’s looks better. I bid on a no-reserve 456GT and lost. Wound up buying my ’95 456 GT sight unseen with only 16K miles and recent service last year.

My point is simple….I’m not a Ferrari guy…. I’m just a car guy…but I think I represent the average buyer who would consider a Ferrari in these price ranges. I got what I wanted for half the money I was willing to spend. I might have (probably not) considered an auto, but only at about $15K less….Unless I’m buying the car for my wife, I want a stick. Think about it. If you want a high-end RWD manual sports car w/ some room for your “stuff”, what would you be looking at? Not that many choices out there….

Just my opinion (…or not…I actually sold one of only 35 USA 6 speed, 1993 BMW 850ci’s for twice the price of the many automatics of the same make and model...), but I think there is a difference in the auto and manual 456 in terms of desirability and price. The idea that younger buyers don’t care isn't born out by the cable TV auctions that show current buyers paying top dollar for American clunkers with manuals….Just a WAG, but the manuals will have a market….eventually…..so will the auto’s but the manuals will command a premium…

So to answer Moe's question on whether there's a trend here, don't know... but, I can see the reason for it if it does appear..... Here's Hagerty's values for the '95 456GT showing a slight uptick...Trend??? Also, the '97 GTA has the same uptick but is priced about 15% lower than the GT....

Regards…..Mark
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well i hope you all are right.

at the moment, altho i still like aspects of my 456mgt, i have to say that it is the costliest of all my cars.
if you do not count restorations, and only take into account purchase price+maintenance+repairs less the current value, my car has cost me $6/mile. for a cheap bastard like me, that is just awful. i specifically try to buy cars at the low of their value curve to guard against getting hit by the massive depreciation most models suffer. i did the same with this one, getting it at 1/3rd of the original sticker with less than 2k miles on the clock. but this was a $300k car, and the parts reflect that. furthermore, it still had many design flaws and brittle parts that needed to be replaced, and it was never cheap.

so caveat emptor on this model. i wont denigrate it, but $/mile it has not performed well, so since i am now stuck with it, it had better appreciate some day to make up for it !!

 

Hi Ross:

Consider yourself lucky at $6/mile. Best I can estimate, it cost my 1st owner about $15/mile...by and large depreciation being the biggest factor.... And, from your #'s, looks like it cost your 1st owner $100/mile!

I think all cars bottom out price-wise after a certain number of years and it becomes only about condition and desirability. Being Ferrari's, these cars will always be desirable. Collectible and appreciating is an entirely different matter.

I'm hoping I bought near the bottom. Hagerty's price curve looks fairly flat for a number of years. And, about the uptick....One data point does not a trend make.

At $.50/mile for fuel here in the US and cheap insurance, I'm guessing my first year of ownership, w/ 1600 miles expended, is only about $1/mile but, that's not factoring in significant maintenance, which had just been done before I got it. Also, doesn't factor in depreciation, if any, which I guess is why I found the topic interesting.

Most people don't think of depreciation when selecting a car, boat or anything with an engine. But it always has been and probably always will be the biggest cost of ownership, always exceeding all the other costs combined...

If our cars are at the bottom of the pricing curve then one can own it and drive it a little bit like me and the cost of ownership is pretty low. If they do lose value then the only way to justify ownership is to drive the crap out of it (mileage wise), the same as one would do with a new Lexus. Let's see... would I rather drive a Lexus 1600 miles/year or the 456?

Cheer up Ross... If Moe and I are right, you're about to begin your free ride... (unless, of course, you need those $2000 spark plug wires.....)

Regards...Mark

 

the first owner of my 456mgt paid $162/mile, if you take his purchase price, the cost of getting it maintained to sell to me, and my purchase price. yes, he most definitely got the worse end of the ownership period.

however, i am not even counting the fact that i drive it mostly in town and i get 6 miles to the gallon.....and at about $8/gallon, that means that i should be adding even more to my cost number...

so far this is still the most expensive car i own per mile.

i wonder what the costs are for a 612, bought at a similar part of the curve? assume 1/3rd original price. what are the maintenance and running costs like? anybody know or do i have to go to the 612 section to ask?

 

612 running costs are about the same as for a 575M. Same engine and drivetrain and maintenance schedule. Very reliable. No calculated numbers that I have.

 

Wow,
After all these years of owning a Ferrari going to shows being a member of the
Ferrari community I never realised I was being frowned upon.