275 GTB Four Cam Values

Who knows at this point? I think the market is in a particularly frothy and unrealistic period with respect to the pricing of many of the mass-produced 1960s Ferrari road cars, which usually ultimately ends in tears and regrets. Undoubtedly the cars are worth more than they were 24 months ago, but I have a feeling that those who buy at something approaching today's asking prices might regret those purchases in the not-too-distant future.

Michael

 

Interesting to see hardly nobody respond. I would have thought this thread would have attracted more responses by now. Here is my go:

275 GTB/ 4 values are currently high. I think it is fair to say now that below $1.5m your unlikely to get a decent 4 cam today. Yes 4 cams prices have increased even over the past 2 years. But its undoubtedly one of the greatest road cars Ferrari ever made. Its got all the aspects of what Ferrari owners want:

- 12 Cylinder front engine
- 3.3 L
- 6 dual weber carbs
- Pininfarina design
- Scaglietti build
- 1960s design with long nose
- Open gate GTO style gearshift
- 300 hp and an engine that does not mind 8'000 rpms

So looking at it in absolute terms: Yes 4 cams values are high. But relatively speaking the values are actually still realistic (consider that 4 cam values are only approaching what they once were in the late 1980s. Also compare it to Dinos. 330 GTC. Even 275 GTSs. Prices have exploded there and the cars are no where near as good to drive as a 4 cam. That is a fact. The 4 cam is one of the true all time great Ferraris to look at and even better to drive.

Please lets have other opinions here.

 

Interested to know why you think they would regret it in the not so distant future. I sometimes think like that, actually have been thinking like this for a year or more and the market keeps correcting me.

 

Thoughts on todays market? What is fair for a concours quality four cam these days? with all the right numbers, provenance etc?[/quote]

The last one I saw fitting this description selling publicly was at RM auctions 2008 in Monterey, Lot 434 selling for 1,925.00. This car today will get 3 mil easy, but cars of this quality do not come up for sale often. Most people who take the time and money to restore a Ferrari 275 to this level keep the car forever and not interested in selling.

 

I'm not generally a nay-sayer with respect to the classic car market (and moreover, I am invested in this market in a significant way), but I have been getting that weird 2007 feeling lately. The recent dump in the gold market I fear may signal the beginning of some price deflation for hard assets in the coming period. But who knows?

Michael

 

Sell gold buy Ferrari's. Cash is worthless buy Ferrari's. Stock market, well keep a bit invested but still buy Ferrari's. Such a limited stock of classic cars ensures prices will stay high. But if they don't just get the car out, take it for a drive and forget about all that financial mumbo jumbo. Much more fun than gold!

Daytona Ramblings - Home

 

Not my specialism, but hey it is a start:

275 GTB (sn) 1.000.000 eur
275 GTB (ln) 1.200.000 eur
275 GTB 6 carbs 1.300.000 eur
275 GTB alloy 1.600.000 eur
275 GTB alloy 6 carbs 1.700.000 eur
275 GTB/4 1.500.000 eur
275 GTB/4 alloy 2.200.000 eur
275 GTB/C 2.900.000 eur (?)

Ciao
Oscar

 

Not a bad estimate, Oscar!

 

You still have to differentiate real GTB/C from the first serie competition cliente. Those are less valuable but i doubt you can find any C for the price you indicate. However, race history and originality play a bigger role than for street cars for price differences.

 

Might that be this one?

Ferrari 275GTB 4 CAM - For Sale At Talacrest

 

Not a bad start to a tricky excercise (when was the last time a 275 GTB/4 Alloy sold?) and I generally agree with you even if I think you may be a little on the high side. Best Edmond

 

Last one, the beige one which raced in the US, ex Kroymans that failed at auction and then re united with the original engine which was in Germany(!) went from Price to Talacrest and is presented as sold. Not sure that they had the car physically though.
10311 in case you ask..

 

This got me thinking about 275 GTB/4 prices vs gold. Gold was recently $1,700 per oz, a nice 275 GTB/4, perhaps $1,700k. I recall looking at a 275 GTB/4 with a friend for $440k and I think gold was around $450 / oz at the time. Anecdotally, it seems perhaps the value of a 275 GTB/4 has been reasonably close to 1,000 oz of gold. This peaked my curiosity and I perused the "Old prices from the Golden Years" thread in this forum and found 15 ask prices for 275 GTB/4's from 1972 - 2002. I also used Oscar's current estimate of 1.5mm Euro's (USD $1.95mm). Corresponding gold prices are from Bloomberg. The results are interesting. R-squared from a simple regression is .55. What I find most interesting is that the spike in Ferrari prices that occured during the late 80's following Enzo's death seems anomolous when compared to gold, and indeed they corrected back swiftly. The recent increase in Ferrari prices on the other hand does not look anomolous in comparison with gold. This morning gold is $1,386, guess what Hegarty's Classic Car valuation tool values a 275 GTB/4 at? - $1,366,500.

So what's a 275 GTB worth today? With an eye on the recent decline in gold from $1,700 to around $1,400, I'd hesitate to pay north of $1.4mm. If anyone wants the data in a spreadsheet PM me.
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Excellent work on the graph. If you're curious about their past values I believe I have at least half-a-dozen GTB-4's in my Vintage Ad thread. The particular example in my head right now is chassis #10163, advertised in the LA Times for $9,000 in July 1973. I believe I have another one from March(?) 1980 at $38,000. They would climb to about $65k in 1984. Most veterans of the Ferrari trade would probably agree that 1986 was one of the more dramatic years for price speculation, after all, it was the year that the 250GTO hit $1,000,000. Prices went from about $80,000 in January to about $150,000 by December. In 1987 they would generally trade in the $200's. Then there is the one from Hemmings in May 1989 that was advertised for $1,750,000! That's over 4X what Ron Spangler was asking for one that same month but a year prior. He had one at $395,000 in Autoweek May 16, 1988.

The most recent bottom for 4-cams was 1996-97, when they were advertised for about $225-275k. The lowest price I heard of from this period was $185k in summer 1997. And that was a selling price, not an ask. They slowly rebounded, but hovered in the upper 200s and lower 300s until 2003, when they were going for near that 1988 price. By 05 they were all over 500k, 2006: 650k 2007: 850k 2008: 1.2mil. They dipped below 1mil again every now and then about 3 years ago, but have since rebounded, and are now at their 1989 prices again, perhaps even higher, not considering inflation of course.

 

Firstly fantastic post! It got me thinking. Your comparison is a fair one I must admit even though I think the correlation longer term and going forward is not that strong. On the face of it, comparing Gold and a blue chip tangible asset like Ferrari 275 GTB/4 - you would expect similar price patterns. In times of panic and uncertainty capital will move towards both areas. Also I assume Art to a degree is no different. Interestingly enough the last bubble in Gold was in the late 1980s. Well guess what? The Ferrari market peaked then as well. Now will tangible assets like blue chip collectibles fall because Gold has? I am not sure this holds up. Just look at the auction prices in Arizona and Amelia. I was just at Essen- now Gullwings are trading above $1m for good examples. No chance below that anymore. See my blog on Essen trade show

Techno Classica: 50 shades of blue » Le Monde Edmond

But could Gold prices be a sign that the classic car market may slow down? Perhaps. I still do not see it in the figures though. If I would not own a 275GTB/4- would I buy one today? Probably not. But the classic car market benefits from something Gold cannot.That is increasing awareness of 'car brands' ie. also the chance to own a piece of automobile history. And perhaps most importantly, classic cars provide a yield in terms of 'usability'. A car you can use and enjoy, gold in its physical form you cannot. Granted gold jewellery is also a demand driver for gold but nowhere near enough to drive gold prices consistantly higher. So Gold in physical form of bars yields nothing except protection against uncertainty, against central bank printing. Classic cars with all the growing ecosystem around it (concours and rallyes) provide real enjoyment. This is like a 'dividend yield' as it also allows owners to build up a history on the car when taken to events etc.

Also going back as far as 1970s -Gold has been a lousy investment adjusted for purchasing power and inflation. Not so classic cars.

Curious to hear other thoughts! Great post and very interesting data btw!

 

Since 1967 the price of gold has increased by a factor of around 40. Comparing the price of a new 275 GTB/4 in 1967 to today I would estimate it's value has increased by a factor of around 160 so the 275 GTB/4 has done a lot better than gold. However, these figures do not take into account the substantial running costs of the Ferrari during this period. We may find the figures to be much closer?

The 250 GTO has increased in value by an incredible factor of around 4000.

http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf

 

Let me lay this one on you:

What if your gramps bought a Duesenberg SJ for $400 in 1940, sold it for $35,000 in 68 and immediately used all of it to purchase 5 GTO's at 7k each? I don't think even 1986 Microsoft shares could touch that. A conservative estimate for a GTO today is 40 mil. $400 to $200,000,000: that's a factor of 500,000. Not trying to one-up you, just trying to see if I can blow my own mind!

 

The reasoning below is precisely the argument I invoked above in the thread, but without the thoughtfully laid-out data and analysis. My gut tells me to expect some downward pressure in the not-too-distant future across this market, particularly in those areas that have seen the most meteoric rise of late. I actually would argue that vintage Ferrari prices have a LOT to do with gold prices, and that vintage Ferraris still appear stronger simply because the values, as with those for blue-chip art, tend be a very trailing indicator of market trends. And, just to head off potential criticisms, I am not down on the car market or the collectibles markets generally (I am heavily invested in all these markets, to be sure). But I feel we have been here before.

Michael

 

Talacrest in the UK value the 275 GTB/4 between £1.2 and £1.7 Million GBP.

"The Ferrari 275 GTB/4 model and even the lesser regarded Ferrari 275 GTS model have both approximately doubled in the last 3 years. The Ferrari 275 GTS prices range from £450,000 - £750,000. The Ferrari 275 GTB/4 cams range from £1.2m to £1.7m. Alloy bodied competition cars like the like NART car we sold recently are considerably more.

These are great driving cars and represent the last of the classical front engined V12 Ferrari road/race car."


See here: Ferrari 275 GTB - Talacrest

 

"the last of the classical front engined V12 Ferrari road/race car."
I thought that was the Daytona?

 

Maybe he meant under 'Enzo Ferrari'. Daytona is after the 'golden years' of Ferrari.
Ofcourse technically your right.

 

I realize that the cars are incredibly rare, and actually, if my ship ever comes in, I will buy one. But if the values have doubled in 3 years, we can expect a collapse. I don't believe that all who bought the cars did so because they are true affectionados, but just folks with money to invest and getting that kind of a return is pretty amazing. We saw the same thing happen in the late 1980s.

 

Well I partially agree with you in that prices will certainly correct sooner or later. Collapse? No. There is not enough of a bubble for them to collapse. Also I think people realise that Enzo era Ferraris are pretty rare. Rarity alone with increasing awareness should ensure that prices dont correct drastically. But if double again in three years and again in three years and once again in three years- ofcourse this cannot continue.