Like predicting the weather, we all have a general idea, but I prefer to focus on actual sold results and what they mean for the market. I had a feeling there wasn't any data behind your notion, remember, guts have a terrible accuracy rate predicting market outcomes. For the record, the only reason I didn't respond to your post this past week is I have been busy dealing with the actual F40 market, I wasn't avoiding your question, and when it comes to the F40 market, I generally do opine with definition, just read this thread! You must not know me or my business very well, generally, people tell me they seek my help because I have a fair amount of experience and am a straight shooter, not to help them support their car investment hopes, therefore, any notion that I can't disappoint previous sellers is redundant, in fact, as I often do here on FChat, and even more often privately, I actively counsel people against the pitfalls of using these cars as investment vehicles, and often remind them that the ever-changing market is the market at any given time. The market is never what we want it to be or try to talk it up to be, it is what it is. I've said it multiple times before and if it helps clear things up for your benefit I'll say it again, I'm never fazed whether values go up, down, or sideways, people always have a good reason to buy or sell, my role is simply to interpret the market accurately based on actual sold data, and be a good resource for my clients. This is a big boys game, and anyone astute knows markets fluctuate, pretending otherwise is folly. That said, these days more enthusiasts are buying the cars to drive and enjoy and not worry about values. Interesting thought. Great video as always from James.
well i was definitely too optimistic. at the same time i maintain that there is something awry in the stack... in this same auction a black usa '93 512tr with 8k miles sold for $412k all in. i do not think that a usa f40 with 9k miles in good shape, is worth only 5x a '93 512tr with 9k miles. IF both of these are in some way not representative of the mkt in general then fine. but if one or both are considered correct market values, then the relationship between the 2 is off. in 2019 or so, that same f40 was worth between 1 and 1.3 mil. whereas the 512tr was worth about 100-150k. for arguments sake that is like 10x. and now its 5x?? btw, i own both these models, so i am not trying to diminish either of them
I checked quickly and it appears that you're right that US F40s were trading at approximately 10X US 512TRs back then... I think what we're seeing here is a combination of a few factors. Firstly, the market is simply doing what it does; ebbs and flows across various models, as buyer's tastes change or other opportunities appear more attractive. For instance, the top five auction sales for 512TRs ever have all occurred in the last year or so. On the contrary - as noted extensively in this thread - the F40 market is in the midst of a pull back; the previous point of discussion - 91097 - beign a perfect example, as it's now asking 10% less than it sold for 2 years ago, which is the penultimate high watermark at auction. Secondly, I think we're witnessing the continuation of something we first saw last year - The first Broad Arrow doesn't tend to bring big results. It seems a lot of this comes down to the timing... I know several big, F40 (and then some) level collectors that can't be bothered showing up that early to what can be quite a slog of events. Maybe more simply, it seems that BA doesn't have their legs under them quite yet, as more often than not, their general results seem to lag the other houses when at a multi-sale event (i.e. Amelia vs. Moda Miami earlier this year). Time will tell if that continues to be a factor, or BA can will the crowds to their schedule. Now, as I said earlier, another factor can be that the market can vary as the herd identifies other opportunities... The latest opportunity seemingly nice 512TRs. Perhaps the herd will identify this jump in the TR market, combined with the pull back in the F40 market, as an opportunity to buy F40s and restore that previous 10x relative valuation - music to your ears, no doubt! To summarize - 512TRs are hot, F40s aren't and this sale doesn't tend to bring out the wallets of the big guns... But nothing last forever
Apparently it did not actually sell, $2.2m was the high bid, listed today as "For Sale". 87219 is a top-tier F40, I know it well, I've sold it twice, in fact I owned it personally for a number of years and only let it go after a prominent collector came to my home and purchased it out of my garage. Point being, I have personal knowledge of this car, and I rate it better than 91097 with similar miles, which I've also sold multiple times, and which brought $3.855m in August 2022. I have no doubt that 87219, which is in fact more accomplished than 91097 as a Platino winner, would have brought a similar result as 91097 in '22, but here we are just 2 years later at a price point $1.655m lower, and the car still remains available. That's the reality, and the decline is significant. As I've said several times before, late 22 was the peak from which values have diminished. Bear in mind that along the way between late '22 and now 91097 did not sell earlier this year at $2.7m, a cold $1.1m less than it's '22 result 2 years earlier. Others may speculate, spitball, theorize and explain away results due to auction house or venue, but the numbers for good cars don't lie, and the ability to see this clearly is why this data-based thread exists. Image Unavailable, Please Login
Well it did not take long.. if the result was a high number... it would have been an outliner... so a low number means what... I have spent the last month in the US.. on the east coast seeing some of the largest Ferrari collections in the world...wined and dinned with the real collectors in the market.. So what happened in the those few weeks... 1 288 GTO sale for over 6 million USD, a near transaction on a Enzo for 5.5 USD and a world record price on a Dino.... 3 more cars in the pipe line... I follow the money not random auctions or Classic .com websites... the market is very strong and from what I experienced over the month.. more so than ever.
actually, IF the car did not sell, then it does not MEAN anything as far as the price data is concerned. a NO SALE at any price is meaningless. might as well have not sold at $2.00
Curious it isn’t shown as “Now asking…” on the BroadArrow site as all of the other no-sale cars from yesterday are.
It says that in every auction listing. Even the no reserves and every car listed as “sold” on hammer price.
The US classiche platinum 8,000mi Ferrari F40 absolutely sold for $2.2m. Just checked the video (see 3:01). https://www.youtube.com/live/OqVn3JFSQ0Q?si=iMXt30prO1FSx81u
Auctions are not always as they seem. My friend picked up a Challenge Stradale that had "sold" the week prior at RM Moda in Miami.
Unfortunately don't hold your breath on the other cars; now that I'm not working on this stuff full-time, it gets a lot less attention. That said, the F40 report will be getting an update through Monterey by end of August. Schaltkulisse has spent the last couple years trying to create an 'identity' out of #88538 ('Minty Forty') beyond just being a repainted F40, something that has been successfully achieved with 'F40 BLU' #80746. We'll find out how much their work has paid off on Saturday. I wouldn't get caught up on individual results. First, Nero exterior is a selling point; only 15% of 512 TRs were Nero in the 2-year analysis I'm about to share data from. Second, that car has 9,924 miles, which is less than half of the US-spec 512 TR average of 21,769 miles. The F40, meanwhile, has 8,060 miles, which is slightly *more* than the 7,243 mi that the average US-spec F40 presents at auction with. I did a 512 TR market analysis for somebody right around the time I last updated my F40 report (March). Here are the market values, by spec, I came up with for both cars at that time: F40 US-spec: 2.97m USD F40 Euro-spec: 2.46m 512 TR US-spec: 308k 512 TR Euro-spec: 253k 9.6x and 9.7x. There are those 10x you are looking for - when you consider all the data together. FWIW Broad Arrow outperformed RM during the Florida auctions - in total sales and sale %. Yes they brought more cars. I don't track total auction performance anymore so I will borrow with credit Rick Carey's numbers: Gooding: $67,103,150 Broad Arrow: $54,566,031 RM Sotheby's: $49,109,800 Bonhams: $6,728,722 (BAG entering was the worst thing to happen to Bonhams, and RM has poached talent as well) Classic.com has a lag on their results, unlike Hammer Price. The F40 sold (or at least was announced sold on the block). A like-for-like comparison would include premiums on both high bids regardless of sale - so 2.97m vs. 3.855m, or a true valuation drop of 885k. However if we incorporate adjustment for inflation we have 4.094m vs. 2.991m, and there's your 1.1m again. That last bit should provide a clue as to something I'm considering incorporating into my report. How are the Monterey car week auctions 'random auctions' and why do you put more stock in the 'near transaction' of a car than an actual transaction at auction? I disagree. At high-profile, high-visibility auctions like BAG/RM/BaT/etc, a high bid reflects what the buying market is willing to pay for a car, and an unsold high bid is equally valuable to a sell price. The event that a car does not sell at one of these venues is because literally one person in the entire world did not like the price - the consignor. A car is worth what the buying market is willing to pay. I've made this argument before in this thread in deeper detail (albeit not for a while now) so I won't go on too much. Nevertheless, this F40 sold anyway.
Over the last few years, I am finding there is a move away from Auction's for the most educated and informed collectors.. there seems to be a somewhat ideological view from the new, mostly inexperienced buyers with an eager view to buy at auction.. I take action results, unless it's super special car, with a pinch of salt. There are probably 20 F40's if not more cars available today with 13,000 KLM, so why buy at auction.. Thats why I leave them.
Thats a very sensible question, Sitting round a dinner table with 2 of the most important car collectors in the US.. you understand their thought process.. The car in question was an beautiful ENZO.. the nicest I have seen in a long long time and a deal was close to being done over a bottle of 1998 Petrus.. the spread was 2 % in the end.. That's why I engage with the collectors not the noise. The people that seem to have an infatuation to Auction results and Classic.com views on the current market are just playing in the wrong game. It was great to catch up with my collector friends and we could have had a world record price for a 288 GTO but the seller refused to sell her... My advice would be speak to the owners and collectors in the world.. that is the only way you will get a true reflection on the market... You have to remember as well the seller always hold's all the cards... if they decide not to sell then that the game over... the buyer is always playing catch up..
The seller has all the cards? I don’t think so. You’re forgetting the times, and there have been multiple over the past three decades, when the markets collapse and prices drop 75% to 90%. Those older folks here will remember them well. The first time a Daytona traded at $1m, they were available not long after for $100k. 250GTOs went from $15m to $3m. This is a F40 thread and F40s are down 40% plus percent from the highs 2 years ago. These are toys that no one needs, when the going gets tough there is no bid. A word of warning for those that think the markets always go up!
It’s not just that. It’s that 1,315 owners “have all the cards”. Included are everything from institutional collectors through dealers and speculators on margin. A couple of blips getting movement towards the doors and we’ll see who really holds the cards.
One sale does not make a market and I have advised on a few F40's this year and I can say the cars that have traded are not down 40 %. some have traded at more than cars that have sold at auction.. I would say the 13K miles has a lot to do with it.. In the late 80's the world was a very different place.. From what I can remember 18 billionaires.. today 4000 billionaires.. 500,000 millionaires in the late 1980's in the US alone.. now 25 million in the US.. The money has to go somewhere and with Ferrari releasing more Super cars and Hyper cars the likes of F40's get dragged up.. even though it is quite a common car.
There can be lots of money around and cars can still go down. The objectively pretty amazing SF90 is trading down 40% for un-driven cars and there are hundreds sitting for sale. Same for even the most prestigious classic cars, LWB cal spiders are down a lot. No billionaires or millionaires are chasing those cars. We can quibble about the percentages but as Joe pointed out above there has been a real drop in value for F40s, we can’t pretend otherwise. The F40 is amazing and I hope it goes up for ever, but both history and current price moves suggest otherwise. I was just cautioning against the seller holding all the cards comment. This thread is about being informed and we all need to have our eyes and ears open and understand how values for toys can behave.
I understand what you are saying, SF90's and Cal spiders are different apples.. what's popular today may not be popular tomorrow.. I totally get it.. Did the F40 get ahead of it's self in value maybe... over the last 2 decades they have traded at 2 -2.5 a GTO) in value and more recently a similar pattern to an F50.. So 2.2 is pretty close to the F50's value that sold yesterday at 5.5 USD and recent GTO transactions.
