Arrangement with dealership: When will Ferrari stop making 812 Superfast? | Page 5 | FerrariChat

Arrangement with dealership: When will Ferrari stop making 812 Superfast?

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by gowthamn, Jan 20, 2020.

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  1. wrs

    wrs F1 World Champ
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    That's the Aston Martin and Maserati problem but it looks like it's now the Ferrari problem too. Public companies are just stories disconnected from the business. Ferrari was a business prior to going public and the business model was make 1 car less than the demand. A public company sells a story of growth and that doesn't work for exclusivity. Can't really have both and we can see what Ferrari has sacrificed for growth, it's customers who were willing to pay premium $ for an exclusive marque. Not the case any longer.
     
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  2. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

    Aug 17, 2019
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    Precisely. I doubt every single person who bought a new car in the last 24 months / played the buy this get that game will be in again in the future.
     
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  3. wrs

    wrs F1 World Champ
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    When the game worked it worked very well. I know that back in 2014 just to get a 458 allocation, if you weren't an established customer, they made you eat either a California or a FF to get the 458. Then when the 488 spider came out, it was a Cali T first, then the 488 spider. That's what I was told in 2015 when I first started looking.
     
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  4. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

    Aug 17, 2019
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    Yes it used to work when model cycles were longer and supply was half of what it is today it doesn’t work anymore so a large number of sales driven by speculation is gone. The only way for that game to be worth it is if ferrari releases more limited edition models and make them available to its client base but then if they also release new models every year or two people will just stop buying cars this is what’s happening with mclaren
     
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  5. wrs

    wrs F1 World Champ
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    #105 wrs, May 8, 2020
    Last edited: May 8, 2020
    It's also what is happening to the Pista with the F8. They overbuilt the Pista which is causing a lot of problems with depreciation there too. It's not that the Pista isn't better than the 488, it is but the F8 is the same amount better but in a different and cheaper way. Plenty of Pista owners feeling like they really got taken to the cleaners but that was obvious to me two years ago when they started releasing hints at what the F8 would be. Not only did a lot of Pista buyers take a car they didn't want, they got a "special" car that isn't really that special if only because Ferrari was following the new growth at all costs model to sell stock. Two different markets that management is trying to please and that is what is wrong with public companies.
     
  6. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    Yes those “special” pistas aren’t selling there are already 25 here in the UK for sale. Wait until the F8 hits the showrooms and until F comes up with a VS of the F8. F can’t keep feeling indefinitely they are immune to buyer’s perception and sentiment as much as I love their cars. We need a bit of emotion and exclusivity back here this isn’t JUST about business.
     
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  7. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    I received confirmation from one of the major F dealers that the order take on the 812SF stopped some time ago.
     
  8. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

    Aug 7, 2009
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    I was told early this year by my UK dealer (who i have a very open relationship with) that the 812 SF order book was closed around February and that cars would continue to then be built until around June. If that is still correct, add on a few months for the factory catch up and 812SF will be fininshed production around September. By the way, my 812 was delivered last year so he had no reason to 'hype up' the story to sell me car.
     
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  9. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    So similar story, the very last cars built will have gpf and considering there have been quite some cancellations of orders I bet the end of production will be earlier than September. That means a 2.5 year production cycle making the car rarer than the f12 on a global scale level ( even though it wont be rarer in the UK specifically)
     
  10. gliazzurri

    gliazzurri Formula Junior

    Jun 11, 2016
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    To be fair, I think the jury is still out on whether or not ALL of the 812 SF remaining in production will have the GPF. The European ones seem to imply yes. But there is no raw data out there that the NA spec models definitely will have them for the remainder of whatever run exists or when it officially will be 100% converted. This all remains to be seen and is not definite out in practice yet.
     
  11. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    Possibly I’m not too sure about NA but yes that seems the case in Europe, at least people that have taken delivery have had it fitted
     
  12. gliazzurri

    gliazzurri Formula Junior

    Jun 11, 2016
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    Yes I agree with you on that. I think the NA models is where it many were still getting the non-GPF fitted based on reports earlier this year although the Euro spec ones had switched mostly.
     
  13. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    If this implies value, the 812 has already fallen much faster than the F12 did during its production and not just due to the Chinese virus. In the US orders were strong even after the 812 was announced because they didn't want to risk a lesser follow-on based on the way things were going.
     
  14. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    You are right here in the Uk 812 have been falling sharply in the last 12 months not so much cause of the virus but because the supply in 2 years was much bigger than that of the f12. There are at the end of 2019 as many registered 812 in the UK as F12 while it took 5 years for the f12 to reach that number. Simple maths and why F12 prices were holding on better during its cycle. That said along with the drop in value of 812 F12 prices materially dropped at the same time. These are mainly the reasons why in the UK demand for new 812 order has evaporated and why F decided to stop taking orders in the UK
     
  15. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    That being said you can’t order it anymore in the UK and supply of GTS in the used car market at realistic prices wont happen for at least 18 months so i could see those 812 currently with dealers to be absorbed by the market in the next 12/18 months. And 812 replacement won’t hit the market for another few years and will most likely cost a lot more And by hybrid which will put a floor on 812/F12 . My personal opinion
     
  16. FerrariFL

    FerrariFL Formula Junior

    Dec 2, 2012
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    Will 2020 MY be the last year for 812 s? Or, will there at 2021 short run?
     
  17. TWCC

    TWCC Karting

    Apr 27, 2020
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    interesting thing is that there are some very low milage F12 that have literally the same ask as "higher milage" 812

    the reason why F12's dropped is mainly that you see >10k miles vehicles show up, the F12's have taken a bit of a hit when 812 pre-owned came to the market, but since (adjusted for miles) have actually fared much better than 812....on a well spec'd F12 you're probably down "just" £30k last 12 months....812 is down more like £80k...of course one is from new the other is already used...even on a % basis it's meaningfully different 10-15% vs 25-30%

    Plus while orders might have stopped, they are still coming in, my guess by summer there will be 450-500 812s in the UK....in this environment very hard to absorb
     
  18. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    There are 2 F12 as similar prices to the cheapest 812 but these are way overpriced
    Other than those F12 are between £80k and £120k cheaper than 812 and 812 in the last 12 months dropped more only because they were for most of them initially advertised above msrp. A very good spec 812 with low mileage wont be under £260/270k while there are good specs F12 still under 10k miles so low around £180/190k so much cheaper than 812. I think F12 at least the good exampkes are at the bottom now. I hear your point about the extra supply til the summer there will be more but i personally dont expect a further 100 cars till the end of oroduction maybe 50 at most F stopped taking orders in the UK early feb and many orders were cancelled before the virus
     
  19. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    My point also being there are about 40 812 in the market in the UK if there is no further supply in the next 18 months ( gts at decent prices wont hit the market before 18 months) it could be absorbed at least the good spec low mileage cars
     
  20. MDEL

    MDEL F1 Rookie
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    There are no numbers available for the US market but Carsalesbase publishes regularly reliable statistics with Ferrari sales per model in Europe. According with the latest numbers the 812 SF sales in Europe since the model was launched in 2017 until March 2020, totalize 1614 new cars. The F12 B during the first four years from 2012 until 2015 (end of the year), sold in Europe 1420 new cars and the total sales from 2012 to 2019 have been 2112 new cars.

    If we compare the numbers we realize that the 812 SF total sales in Europe until March 2020 (almost 3 years) are 498 cars short of the total number of new F12Bs sold in Europe between 2012 and 2019 (8 years). Even if Ferrari stops building the 812 SF until the end of this year my guess is that the final total number of new cars sold in Europe will be higher than the number of F12 Bs. Can this numbers be extrapolated to the US market and also to the rest of the world? Honestly I don't know.
     
  21. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

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    I think the total number for europe will probably end about the same as the f12b ( though its higher in the UK). That said as far as future value is concerned it may not mean much. 599 were produced is smaller numbers than f12b and and are worth less. Especially if the 812SF end up being the last na v12 in particular cars without GPF which will could be produced in smaller numbers overall than f12b
    I’m curious to know about production for NA or rest of the world if anyone has a clue.
     
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  22. FerrariFL

    FerrariFL Formula Junior

    Dec 2, 2012
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    Does anyone know the answer to this?
     
  23. gliazzurri

    gliazzurri Formula Junior

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    I think the answer is no, no one knows here.
     
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  24. Gianfranco341

    Gianfranco341 Karting

    Sep 12, 2017
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    I went to see my new 812 SF last week . It has been registered wit a 812 reg plate and I will collect it this week . I confirm it has GPF , I started it and sound is muffled . It is also confirmed by reg papers where it is written it complies to Euro 6D . I let you know how it is after a trial .
     
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