And so it begins, car value crash...

While Used Cars Pile Up in Lots, the Classics Are Busy Changing Hands https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16/coronavirus-crashes-the-car-industry-winners-emerge-in-classics

 

This is nothing new, this has been the trend for years and then it came full circle. I believe nothing will change here and in fact likely be the opposite - I bet most will want to get back into the office and work live with people vs. video or con calls.

 

Nah, they will just suit up.

 

Hold on to your F-cars kids. This P-demic can't last forever. The World has to get back to work. Even China!!! LOL

 

One of my best friends has a BHPH lot, keeps about 200 vehicles on the lot. Zero sales in 30 days.

 

Jesus..how many did he avg out per 30 days before Covid?

 

15-20 typical, but the boom time is Feb-May for tax season. That's why he loaded up with cars, as they do in 1Q. They then whittle those down over the summer.

 

Last night on TV I saw a commercial for 8 years, 0% financing from Jeep.


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I think there’s something to this. The new model of city centers in areas surrounding a major metro area, in my opinion, is likely to continue. When the Domain in Austin opened, we stopped going downtown, except for rare occasions. Currently near the Woodlands, and it has just about everything I would need (non-work related) on a regular basis, thus reducing the need to go to Houston proper except for visits to the clients main office. These mini hubs 30min - 1hr from the big city encourage vehicle ownership and still provide access to walkable areas with cafe lifestyle via car (ironically).

Additionally, I agree that this virus event has made me reconsider living in a densely packed city (but won’t keep me from visiting).

Translation to me is that average person in this living scenario can have a lifestyle vehicle (sports car/Jeep/truck) and errand runner (suv/econo car/van). Uber/Lyft model remains for night out in the city center.

More on topic, I think new and new used cars are going to suffer most since few will afford them in short term. Exotics probably suffer less on price, but take longer to sell unless it has the right features. Right about now with my F430 on the market, I know I’d be doing better if it was resell red.

 

Actually might have overstated at 200. I think he's got more like 120-130. Either way it's $$$$ in stalled inventory.

 

Land Rover is 0% for 72 months.....I am seriously contemplating getting a Sport for my wife and trading her Velar....great trade offer, no payments for 3 months, and free money....I was going to do it next year but it will cost me roughly $4500 in payments over 12 months......her car will certainly depreciate more than that when I go to trade it next year....

 

MSRP?

 

The new Defender tempted me until I saw the price...

 

That's very possible, it's also possible that working at home will become more the norm and a car won't be as needed and a couple can share. All just a guessing game at this point.

 

Ouch....just specced one to my liking....$70K+

 

I specced mine a few times to see how low I can go with "must haves" and it was around 70-80k. Thanks for bringing it back Land Rover but no thanks lol.

 

I don't think you're going to want to own one of those for 6 years. Lease it so you can get out of it before the warranty expires.

 

If he really is BHPH, lack of sales is not his biggest concern. Not even close. The much larger issue is the millions in outstanding loans he has. Will the debt get serviced or will his customers default all at once.

 

Auto manufacturers and dealers still remember the hard lessons of the Great Recession. They can right size on a dime. The new car sales went from 17M annually to 9M and stayed low for years. Everyone in the auto business understands the boom/bust cycle. Doesn’t mean it will be pleasant.

 

A few people are paying, he's being patient for now. They have considerable AR but thankfully they started selling their accounts in blocks about 18 mos ago to BHPH factoring/finance companies. I represented him on the contracts, the rates are actually amazing what they were buying this sub and below-sub paper at after 3 mos' payments. Either way that will be a saving grace for him now, that he sold a big % of his AR over the past year.

 

18 mos ago when car shopping I tried the new Discovery, wheezy rental car feel. I drove about 200 ft off the lot and said, "I don't like this." Flipped a u-turn and right back. I was mildly tempted by the RR Sport but I thought that was too reliable and bought an Alfa instead!

 

You tried the discovery or the discovery sport? Two very different vehicles

 

I guess it was the sport. Was a 4-cyl.

 

The discussion about work from home being the new norm and impacting car values is interesting. IMO work from home is showing that it is not efficient. Most workers do not have the discipline to police themselves working from home and many industries - even high tech - don't lend themselves well to it. Go down the list of industries and you will find issues.

Automotive industry needs factories. Defense needs person-person for production and test. Agriculture is obvious. Restaurants. Sports. The list goes on. On-line sales and consulting - sure be naked and work from home. A lot of the rest is problematic IMO. Offices will change but they definitely won't disappear. HR wants your butt in the office where they can keep an eye on you.

 

that makes sense. They gave me one as a loaner once after doing a song and dance about how they were short on loaners. I got about a mile down the street and brought it back.