What 8 races will be run this year?

With no revenue for 2020... between 2 and 5 teams will fold permanently. That is really your hope?

I addition,... I'm not sure how much will change between October and January... No one is talking of a vaccine that soon. If you can't hold a race in September 2020,... can you expect to hold a race in March 2021? I'm not sure...

 

That's a possibility. In time of crisis, only the strongest survive.
F1 has lost teams in the past. What about Lotus, Brabham, BRM and a few more ?

 

I think some GPs were run in the past with less than 20 cars on the grid.

 

Many races in the 1950s and 1960s had fewer than 20 starters, several with fewer than 6 finishers.

 

Indeed. There were many GPs with less then 20 cars in the 60s.
In fact, 16 was the grid limit for many years at Monaco.

 

Without TV money F1 cannot survive, IMO.

 

Maybe the teams, Liberty and the FIA will have to review their agreement with the TV channels.
Advertising, through the TV rights, is the backbone of F1.
No TV exposure = no sponsorship. No sponsorship = no motor racing.
But the lack of advertising would affect the TV channels themselves, so they have to get smart.

It looks like the 2 conditions you have picked up from Blick's Benoit are too strict for the present situation.
A temporary solution has to be found, somehow, or every party is bound to lose.

If a championship cannot be organised, a least a few standalone races could be run later on, and televised to get some income and keep the teams alive.
I fear that a complete year of inactivity would have many casualties in motorsport, and not only F1.

 

This is 'the money' of F1

 

How about Run whatever races they can this year, and then carry the points and standings over to next year, 2021, add them to next years points and standings.

there would be no championship for 2020

 

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/149005/alfa-more-difficult-to-recover-a-bad-start-in-2020

The intense run of races once the Formula 1 season eventually starts will hamper scope for development if teams are left on the back-foot, reckons Alfa Romeo boss Fred Vasseur.

The postponement of the Canadian GP amid the continuing coronavirus pandemic has delayed the start of the season further, with the French GP at Paul Ricard on June 28 now provisionally set to be the first event of the year.

F1 bosses are hoping to cram in a run of events later this year once the worst of the crisis has passed, which Vasseur thinks will take up the majority of team's capacity and leave them with little chance to go aggressive with updates to close in on competitors.

Speaking to Autosport, Vasseur admitted that a poor start would be "quite difficult to recover" from compared to a conventional season.

"For sure, when you have to do 15 or so races in a row, it's much better to have a good car from the beginning," he told Autosport.

"I would not say impossible because nothing is impossible, but it would be quite difficult to recover, much more than when you would have 10 months.

"But that's the fact. It's like this and we don't have much to complain [about]."

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F1 teams are likely to extend their current factory shutdowns until there is greater clarity on when racing can resume. Once they get back to work, Vasseur thinks that the focus for teams will be different to a normal season.

"As soon as the shutdown is over, we will put all our resources on the current season," he said.

"If we have 15 or 18 races roughly in a row, then you need to start with a huge stock of parts. So we will much more focused on production than anything else because we won't be back in the factory [in between races].

"It will be a bit of a different exercise. I think that we will have less development in-season, but we have to face other issues."

 

2020 is a complete write off for all the minnows in terms of car development. 2021 is already a write off for teams who have furloughed staff....McLaren, Racing Point, Williams, Haas, and Renault. Can't develop cars with no time and no money, and these teams have neither. Further, how many teams are going to lose a ton of advertisers? A lot of companies are going to have huge holes in their ads budgets. And then there are the huge holes left in racing budgets at manufacturers like Renault who were iffy on F1 to begin with. I'd be surprised if Williams, Haas, and Renault showed up for 2021 at all.

 

I predict that Renault will be the next manufacturer to leave F1, mostly for political reasons.
The French state still owns something like 15% in Renault, with more voting rights.
Following Covid-19 and the slump in car sales, some form of austerity will be needed to put the French economy back on track.
I would expect the State to convince enough shareholders to stop the F1 team that hasn't brought much success anyway.

 

Williams just received a presumably huge cash inflow from Latifi. They are safe for 2021,... with the caveat that they will likely have new ownership at some point in 2021-22.

Agree that Renault and Haas are at huge risk.

Racing point / Aston Martin ... who knows. How much cash do the owners want to incinerate.

 

Mercedes rumor of leaving has to be considered too. I'm sure overall vehicle market is down!

 

And regarding Mercedes,... what is their potential ROI? They have had a historic run. What is there to be gained at this point... You are at the top of Mt. Everest... Where do you go now?

If I was on the MB board,... I'd look at Formula E. Unfortunately,... that's probably where the ROI is...

 

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/52275166 - France delay imminent

 

Yup. Owned by Red Bull,... so "promoter" may be more willing to accept race without fans...

 

Recent talk has doctors saying the world cannot reopen until::
a) there is an effective vaccine, {which may be as early as 6 moths and as late as 18}
and
b) more than 50% of the world's population has had the vaccine {which may be another whole year}

Thus, 4th quarter is the earliest time when the world's economy can be rebooted.
2020 World GDP is going to be maybe 1/2 of what WGDP was in 2019.

I doubt anyone (but medical equipment makers) will have any $$$ for advertising.

It is still going to get worse before it starts to get better.